At the risk of stating the obvious, this year has been anything but normal. There was supposed to be an Olympics next month, and this week was supposed to be that wonderful week when the two hardest Olympic teams in the world to make--the U.S. track & field and swimming teams--were decided. But, alas, none of that happened! Hopefully this will all be behind us by this time next year and we can choose those teams 12 months later.
It's hard to predict what would've happened at Trials. That's part of what makes them so much fun. There are so many athletes who've achieved the Olympic qualifying standard that our way of doing it is the only way that will work. You either make the team on that day or you don't. It's that simple.
The Olympic Trials are also the only time all of the top athletes actually show up at U.S. Nationals and compete in their normal event. World Champions get a bye into the next World Championships, and USA Track & Field only requires them to show up at Nationals in order to receive their bye. But there are no byes onto the Olympic team. If you want to make it, you have to compete in your primary event and finish in the top three (provided you have the standard). No exceptions!
There's almost always a surprise or two at Trials, as well. It's usually the college athlete who has a ridiculous NCAA Championships and carries that over into Olympic Trials, giving them the spot that everyone thought was earmarked for someone else. And there's always that random injury that pops up at the most inopportune time, knocking out somebody who we all thought could medal in Tokyo.
Despite all that, I'm gonna give it a shot and name my 2020 U.S. Olympic track & field team. (I'll do swimming over the weekend.) It's tough because no one has been able to compete in months, so these predictions are based mainly on their performances from last year (as well as some who I simply like the best and want to make the team).
Christian Coleman's status, fortunately, is something that will likely be resolved one way or the other by the time we actually have the Trials next year. I think it's likely that he'll end up facing a suspension. If it's only for one year, he'll be able to run at Trials. If they give him two, he won't. And, when you consider he's the Olympic favorite in the 100 meters and would likely also make the team in 200, whether or not he's there will make a huge difference.
In Coleman's case, the Olympic postponement ended up being a good thing. Because he would've been out of Trials had they been this week. A provisional suspension is still a suspension, so Coleman wouldn't have been eligible. And, as a result, he wouldn't be going to Tokyo.
With that in mind, I'm excluding Coleman from my predictions. The rest of the teams are based on who I think will be top three finishers among those who already have the Olympic standard (World Athletics has a handy "Road to Tokyo" tracker here).
I'm not gonna get into all the logistics of it now, but a top three finish doesn't necessarily guarantee a place on the team if the athlete doesn't have the standard. A fourth-place finisher can get in if they have the standard and one of the top three doesn't, and they've added a wrinkle with the new world rankings, too, so that's another way to make the team.
Fortunately, in most events, there are more than three Americans with the standard, so that part's not an issue. In those events, it's straight forward. Top three go. It really does make things so much easier. So, these predictions will reflect that. For the most part, these are the people who I think would've finished top three in there event at Olympic Trials, thus earning a trip to Tokyo.
Before moving on to the selections, a few notes: The Marathon Trials were held before the Olympic postponement was announced, so that team has already been chosen; They also have separate Olympic Trials in the race walks, so I'm not including them here; The mixed 4x400 relay will make its Olympic debut in Tokyo, with participants being chosen from those already in the men's and women's 4x400 pools.
Finally, and most importantly, they actually set up the Olympic schedule to encourage doubles. All of the doubles. Not just 100/200. They can do 800/1500, 1500/5000 or even 5000/10,000 if they want to. I have no doubt some will attempt to do just that, too. So, with that, it's on to the picks...
Men's 100: Justin Gatlin, Cravon Gillespie, Noah Lyles
Men's 200: Noah Lyles, Kenny Bednarek, Rodney Rowe
Men's 400: Fred Kerley, Michael Norman, Will London
Men's 800: Donavan Brazier, Clayton Murphy, Bryce Hoppel
Men's 1500: Craig Engels, Matthew Centrowitz, Ben Blankenship
Men's 5000: Lopez Lomong, William Kincaid, Ben True
Men's 10,000: Shadrack Kipchirchir, Leonard Korir, Paul Chelimo
Men's 110 Hurdles: Grant Holloway, Daniel Roberts, Devon Allen
Men's 400 Hurdles: Rai Benjamin, T.J. Holmes, Norman Grimes
Men's Steeple: Evan Jager, Hillary Bor, Andy Bayer
Men's 4x100: Michael Rodgers, Isiah Young, Christopher Belcher
Men's 4x400: Michael Cherry, Nathan Strother, Vernon Norwood
Men's Long Jump: Jeff Henderson, Will Claye, Steffin McCarter
Men's Triple Jump: Christian Taylor, Will Claye, Omar Craddock
Men's High Jump: Jeron Robinson, Shelby McEwen, Darryl Sullivan
Men's Pole Vault: Sam Kendricks, Chris Nilsen, Cole Walsh
Men's Shot Put: Joe Kovacs, Ryan Crouser, Darrell Hill
Men's Discus: Mason Finley, Sam Mattis, Reggie Jagers
Men's Hammer Throw: Connor McCullough, Rudy Winkler, Sean Donnelly
Men's Javelin: Riley Dolezal, Michael Shuey, Curtis Thompson
Decathlon: Zach Ziemek, Harrison Williams, Solomon Simmons
Women's 100: Sha'Carri Richardson, Tori Bowie, Kiara Parker
Women's 200: Dezerea Bryant, Brittany Brown, Teahna Daniels
Women's 400: Shakima Wimbley, Kendall Ellis, Phyllis Francis
Women's 800: Ajee Wilson, Raevyn Rogers, Hanna Green
Women's 1500: Shelby Houlihan, Jenny Simpson, Shannon Osika
Women's 5000: Shelby Houlihan, Karissa Schweizer, Elinor Purrier
Women's 10,000: Molly Huddle, Emily Sisson, Emily Infeld
Women's 100 Hurdles: Brianna McNeal, Keni Harrison, Nia Ali
Women's 400 Hurdles: Dailiah Muhammad, Sydney McLaughlin, Ashley Spencer
Women's Steeple: Emma Coburn, Courtney Frerichs, Colleen Quigley
Women's 4x100: Twinasha Terry, Angie Annelus, Morolake Akinosun
Women's 4x400: Wadeline Jonathas, Courtney Okolo, Allyson Felix
Women's Long Jump: Brittney Reese, Sha'keela Saunders, Quanesha Burks
Women's Triple Jump: Tori Franklin, Keturah Orji, Chaquinn Cook
Women's High Jump: Vashti Cunnigham, Inika McPherson, Ty Butts-Townsend
Women's Pole Vault: Sandi Morris, Katie Nageotte, Olivia Gruver
Women's Shot Put: Michelle Carter, Jeneva Stevens, Chase Ealey
Women's Discus: Valarie Allman, Gia Lewis-Smallwood, Whitney Ashley
Women's Hammer Throw: DeAnna Price, Gwen Berry, Maggie Ewen
Women's Javelin: Kara Winger, Ariana Ince, Jenna Gray
Heptathlon: Erica Bougard, Kendell Williams, Annie Kunz
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