If this year had gone the way it was supposed to, the U.S. Olympic Swimming Trials would be wrapping up in Omaha and we'd know who's headed to Tokyo. And, just like in track, many consider the Olympic Swimming Trials to be tougher than the Olympics themselves. After all, when you're at the Olympics, the pressure's still there, but it's a different kind of pressure. You've already done the hard part. You've made the team.
I'd even venture to say it's harder to make the U.S. swim team than the U.S. track team. One reason for that is because countries are limited to just two competitors per event, which means you have to finish top two at Trials to make the team. And so many events are ridiculously deep that the third- or fourth-place finisher might be a former World Champion or Olympic medalist.
Another thing that makes the swim team so difficult to make is the fact that the stars usually do several events. That's a great thing for the sport. They want those big stars to win as many medals and get as much exposure as they can. But it also means that for those unfortunate enough to be competing against them, one spot on the team is already accounted for, which just amps up the pressure for that remaining spot even more. Just ask anybody who did the same events as Michael Phelps what that's like.
Next year's squad will be the first U.S. Olympic swim team in 25 years that Phelps won't be on. But just because the greatest champion in Olympic history is now retired for good doesn't mean that USA Swimming will be lacking stars. Not by a long shot.
Caeleb Dressel has long been considered Phelps' heir apparent. He won a Phelpsian seven gold medals at the 2017 World Championships, then won six gold and eight total at last year's Worlds. Dressel likely won't do eight events in Tokyo, so he won't be able to catch Phelps. He only does the sprints, so, unless he swims the 200 free at Trials to qualify for the 4x200 free relay, Dressel will be limited six events at the Olympics.
One of those opportunities will almost certainly come in the mixed medley relay, one of three new events FINA added for the Tokyo Games. The others are the men's 800 free and women's 1500 free, which gives another medal opportunity to the female star of the swimming universe. Katie Ledecky is already a five-time Olympic gold medalist. With the 1500--perhaps her best event--now on the program, she could easily win that many in Tokyo alone. It's very conceivable that Ledecky could sweep every freestyle event from 200-1500, with another gold in the 4x200 free relay mixed in.
While they're USA Swimming's biggest stars at the moment, Dressel and Ledecky are by no means the only stars. Not by a long shot. That's why the U.S. is expected to bring home its usual massive haul of swimming medals from Tokyo. It's also why NBC was successfully able to lobby the IOC (over the organizers' objections) for morning finals, which will be live the night before here.
A lot can change between now and the Olympics, though. Especially when you consider the fact that everyone's gonna have an extra year under their belts. In swimming, a year is a long time. We've seen swimmers go from unknown to world record-holder in that short a span. So, it really is anybody's guess who'll end up snagging those two spots per event when the Trials actually do take place next year.
Likewise, there's gonna be a whole new crop of pros by the time Trials come around. The NCAA Championships were scheduled for the same week as the first round of the men's & women's basketball tournaments, so they weren't held. Since the season was otherwise complete, though, those swimmers didn't retain their year of eligibility.
We'll see how much of a difference that ends up making. Usually in Olympic years, top collegians just keep training through the NCAA Championships in preparation for Trials. Those who weren't seniors will still be able to do that next year. But those who weren't had their whole plan upended. I'm sure they'll still compete at Trials. It'll be under completely different circumstances, though.
OK, enough of me trying to sound like I actually know anything about swimming. Same deal here as with my track & field predictions. This is who I think would've made the team had Trials taken place this week as originally scheduled. The actual team that goes to Tokyo next year will likely look very, very different.
Also, I'm only selecting pools for the two freestyle relays. The medley relays are chosen from athletes already on the team, and they'll likely pick the four swimmers in the mixed medley relay the same way (if I had to guess, I'd say Simone Manuel, Lilly King, Caeleb Dressel and Ryan Murphy). And the open water team was selected at last year's World Championships, so that's not included either. With all that in mind, here we go...
Men's 50 Free: Caeleb Dressel, Zach Apple
Men's 100 Free: Caeleb Dressel, Ryan Held
Men's 200 Free: Townley Haas, Andrew Seliskar
Men's 400 Free: Zane Grothe, Jake Mitchell
Men's 800 Free: Jordan Wilimovsky, Zane Grothe
Men's 1500 Free: Robert Finke, Jordan Wilimovsky
Men's 4x100 Free: Maxime Rooney, Zach Apple, Michael Andrew, Kieran Smith
Men's 4x200 Free: Dean Farris, Blake Pieroni, Luca Urlando, Eric Knowles
Men's 100 Back: Ryan Murphy, Matt Grevers
Men's 200 Back: Ryan Murphy, Austin Katz
Men's 100 Breast: Andrew Wilson, Cody Miller
Men's 200 Breast: Andrew Wilson, Josh Prenot
Men's 100 Fly: Caeleb Dressel, Jack Conger
Men's 200 Fly: Luca Urlando, Zach Harting
Men's 200 IM: Chase Kalisz, Michael Andrew
Men's 400 IM: Jay Litherland, Chase Kalisz
Women's 50 Free: Simone Manuel, Abbey Weitzeil
Women's 100 Free: Simone Manuel, Mallory Comerford
Women's 200 Free: Katie Ledecky, Allison Schmitt
Women's 400 Free: Katie Ledecky, Leah Smith
Women's 800 Free: Katie Ledecky, Leah Smith
Women's 1500 Free: Katie Ledecky, Ashley Twitchell
Women's 4x100 Free: Abbey Weitzeil, Erika Brown, Gretchen Walsh, Margo Geer
Women's 4x200 Free: Katie McLaughlin, Leah Smith, Gabrielle Deloof, Mallory Comerford
Women's 100 Back: Regan Smith, Olivia Smoliga
Women's 200 Back: Regan Smith, Kathleen Baker
Women's 100 Breast: Lilly King, Annie Lazor
Women's 200 Breast: Lilly King, Annie Lazor
Women's 100 Fly: Kelsi Dahlia, Katie McLaughlin
Women's 200 Fly: Hali Flickinger, Katie Drabot
Women's 200 IM: Kathleen Baker, Melanie Margalis
Women's 400 IM: Melanie Margalis, Madisyn Cox
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