No Other Choice

In the end, they gave in to the inevitable and made the only decision they could.  So, for the first time in history, the Olympics have been postponed.  The 2020 Tokyo Games will instead take place sometime in 2021, the latest and most significant victim of the virus that has upended the sporting calendar all over the world.

As you know, I was completely on board with the IOC's wait-and-see approach.  After all, July IS four months from now.  And, let's not forget, March started off normally for a lot of us.  While it seems like it's been forever, for those of us who are on lockdown, it's only been that way for a few weeks (with many more to go).  So, making a decision about July in mid-March did seem a bit premature.  Until it didn't.

It got to the point when they couldn't wait-and-see anymore.  Even Sunday's announcement that they would make a decision in four weeks wasn't enough.  The pressure from athletes (who understandably wanted a resolution) and international federations and the media became too much.  And when they started losing countries, you knew they had no other choice. 

First it was Canada that pulled out.  Then Australia.  Then Germany.  Then Great Britain.  When four marquee countries are flat out saying they're not going to send a team, you're backed into a corner.  So, they made the decision they were eventually going to make anyway much earlier than they had planned.  The 2020 Olympics have officially been postponed up to one year, with the exact date when they actually will be held among the many logistical issues that need to be resolved over the next four weeks.

Those logistical issues are numerous.  The Olympic Village was supposed to turn into apartments after the Games.  Those apartment leases will now have to wait until 2022.  Millions of flights and hotel rooms will have to be re-booked.  Members of the organizing committee will all need to receive an extra year's salary.  And any events that were scheduled to take place in the Olympic venues will have to be cancelled or rescheduled.

You're also dealing with 33 international federations, all of which will have to juggle their calendars for next year.  Any World Championships scheduled for 2021 you would figure will now be moved to 2022 (especially since the summer of 2022 is mostly empty with the World Cup not until the fall).  Although, 2022 is the off-year in the cycle for many summer-sport athletes (the only major events are the Commonwealth Games and Asian Games).  That does beat the alternative of no Olympics, though!

The postponement actually makes rescheduling all of this spring's postponed events a lot easier, too.  They don't need to worry about getting qualifiers played before July.  Likewise, this gives international federations and professional leagues three additional open weeks that are now available.  Once everything starts back up again (whenever that is), it's going to be tight regardless.  Now it doesn't need to be as condensed as it would've been if the Olympics remained on schedule.

And it's obviously a relief for the athletes to have some clarity, too.  That was their biggest concern, and the biggest reason why postponement was the right call.  With so many pools and gyms and tracks all over the world closed, they have no place to train.  Yet they were expected to be ready for an Olympics in July, which would've put them at a huge injury risk.  Now they can heed the advice of public health officials, weather the current crisis, then resume their training knowing that the Olympics will be at their normal time--just next year instead.

One of the biggest issues with all of the cancellations and postponements was the effect it was going to have on qualifying.  So many of the cancelled events were either outright qualifiers or contributed key world ranking points that had a direct bearing on qualifying.  The updated processes in those sports were due to be released in early April, but now that the Games are being delayed, the qualifying process shouldn't look too much different, assuming the same events assume the same place on the calendar next season.

However, that revised qualifying process should have no bearing on the 57 percent of athletes that have already booked their tickets to Tokyo.  Those athletes qualified to compete in the Tokyo Olympics.  The fact that those Olympics are taking place in 2021 instead of 2020 is irrelevant.  They earned their place.  That hasn't changed.

Of course, the biggest question that remains unanswered is exactly when in 2021 the Games will happen.  I think that was left intentionally ambiguous, in part because of all the logistics they need to figure out, but also because they need to see what their worldwide broadcast partners (who, bear in mind, will also be broadcasting an Olympics in February 2022) think.

Logic would dictate that a one-year delay means exactly that.  The most likely dates would seem to be July 23-August 8, 2021 (which is exactly one year later than the original dates).  Although, since there were already concerns about the Japanese summer heat, would they consider a May or June start date?  May might be tough because it's so early in the season, but I think late June could work.  They'd have to work around the rescheduled Euro, though.  And that's set for June/July, so keeping the same dates for the Olympics appears to be the most likely scenario.

Regardless of when they happen, the Tokyo Olympics will be the celebration of humanity that the organizers and the IOC have been hoping they would be all along.  They were hopeful that this would all be over and we'd be ready to celebrate by July.  However, things have progressed so rapidly that it was clear that was no longer possible.

So instead we'll have to wait another year.  But that'll only make the celebration that much more special.  The Olympic flame will remain in Japan that entire time.  Because Tokyo is ready.  Come July 2021, the rest of the world will be too.