It's Tokyo 2020, Not Tokyo 2021

As the world continues to deal with a global pandemic that has driven the ability for anybody to do anything to a halt, the calls have gotten louder and louder for the IOC to cancel or postpone the Tokyo Olympics.  Meanwhile, they continue to press on with the preparations, arguing (correctly) that the Olympics are four months away, and a lot can change in those four months.  A response that has been criticized as "tone-deaf," "irresponsible," "out of touch" and a bunch of other choice adjectives.

Frankly, the IOC has been put into a no-win situation here.  Cancellation or postponement may very well be inevitable, but it would be premature to make that decision right now.  They aren't "procrastinating" (which they've been accused of by some).  They're simply waiting to see if it is indeed safe to hold the Games in July as scheduled.  If it's not, they've still got time to make that decision.  That's why an unofficial deadline of May has been suggested, which I think the IOC will stick to.

Cancelling or postponing is a last resort.  That's the stance IOC President Thomas Bach has reiterated time and again.  "Tone deaf" or not, it's the stance he should be taking.  Because Tokyo deserves every opportunity to stage a successful Games.  And that should be the goal until it's no longer possible.  We're not at that point yet.  (I, for one, don't want to envision another four months of this.)

Yet, the athletes have legitimate concerns, and they deserve to be listened to.  After all, you can't have an Olympics without the athletes.  They've all had to dramatically alter their training regimens (that is, if they're even able to train at all).  And with qualifiers being cancelled left and right, they don't even know when or if they'll get an opportunity to reach the standard necessary to compete in Tokyo.  The IOC has acknowledged this problem and has agreed to adjust the qualifying procedures in the affected sports.

One of the main arguments in the calls for rescheduling is that it wouldn't be a "level playing field."  I'm not sure I completely agree with that claim.  Yes, depending on where they live, some athletes are able to train right now and others aren't (and even those who can train have had their training limited).  But they're all in the same boat when it comes to competition.  The entire world's in an indefinite holding pattern.

Should we hit June and events are still being cancelled all over the world, then it would be unfair to ask the athletes to go to Tokyo and expect them to be at their best.  But they've also been told that the Games are on, so they're all working towards that date.  Although, they're also looking for some clarity.  If the Games are going to be cancelled or postponed, they want to know.  And you can understand why.

So, like I said, it's a catch-22.  Athlete safety is paramount.  That's why so many national federations and National Olympic Committees are speaking out.  They don't think the IOC and the Tokyo 2020 organizers are taking it into account as much as they should be. 

Except they are.  Just in a different way.  The Olympics only come around once every four years (not every five years, more on that in a minute).  For some athletes, it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.  And they're doing everything they can to preserve that opportunity for those athletes who've already qualified.  Some of whom might never get the chance to be an Olympian again.

And the IOC isn't living in a bubble.  It's not like coronavirus hasn't impacted the preparations.  They had to cancel the Greek leg of the torch relay because of the large crowds that were gathering, and they had to do the test events with officials instead of athletes.  They're also in constant contact with the World Health Organization.  Do you really think they'll still hold the Olympics if they don't get the OK from the WHO?  I don't.

Of course, one of the many criticisms being directed at the IOC these days is that some feel it seems like they want the WHO to make the decision for them.  I can see where people have that impression, but I wouldn't expect them to act without consulting the WHO.  And they already have made the decision.  It's full steam ahead unless the WHO tells them no.  Is that taking the easy way out?  Maybe.  Is it the smart thing to do?  Yes.

It's also worth noting that the IOC--and the IOC alone--has the authority to cancel or postpone the Games.  So stop suggesting it to the Japanese government or the Tokyo organizing committee!  Because it's not their call!  Will their input have some bearing?  Absolutely!  But, ultimately, it's up to the IOC whether the Tokyo Olympics take place on schedule or not.

Do I think the Tokyo Games actually will start as scheduled on July 24?  Unfortunately, I do not.  The voices are too loud and there are too many of them for the IOC to just ignore.  And, for the sake of everyone, it probably is the right decision.

Even though Thomas Bach has been reluctant to use the word "cancel," I don't think there's any other option if the Games can't be held this year.  Because it's not as simple as just moving them to the same time next year, which seems to be the popular alternative being proposed.  There are so many logistical reasons that make that impractical, if not impossible, so I don't see that as a realistic option.  Does it beat an outright cancellation?  Of course!  I just don't think it would work, though.

Instead, I'd like to propose an alternative.  The 1964 Tokyo Olympics were held in October.  This year's Games are scheduled for July-August because that's what works best for international TV.  But if the options are a delay or no Olympics at all, I think they'd take a delay.  So, if the situation is such that the Olympics can safely take place later in August or September or even October, I think that's the way to go.

Every effort should be made to hold the Olympics this year.  It's Tokyo 2020, not Tokyo 2021.  The Olympics have been held every four years since 1896.  That cycle has never been altered.  Every four years.  Not five.  Not three.  So, if the Games can't take place in 2020, they should be cancelled outright.  That would obviously be a drastic move.  Which is why the IOC is so reluctant to make it.  After all, the only times the Olympics have ever been cancelled it was because of World War (which some world leaders have suggested this pandemic is). 

If that's the decision that needs to be made, so be it.  The IOC shouldn't rush to make it, though.  Because they may be right.  This might be under control in four months.  And the world might be ready to celebrate in Tokyo.