QB's Number 1

In the eight years this blog has existed, I can count on one hand the number of times I've talked about college football.  As such, my interest in the NFL Draft is equally nonexistent.  But, I'm in the minority.  The NFL Draft is such a big deal for both the NFL and college football communities that THREE! networks will be broadcasting the first round in primetime on Thursday night.

The consensus seems to be that the Cardinals will take Kyler Murray No. 1, making him the second straight Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback from Oklahoma to go No. 1 overall.  Arizona can only hope things work out as well as they did with Baker Mayfield in Cleveland.

Mayfield is one of five quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall who was the regular starter for the team that drafted him last season.  Four of the five have taken their team to the playoffs (on multiple occasions), and two have been to the Super Bowl.  So, it's safe to say there have been more hits than misses for teams taking quarterbacks No. 1 overall in recent years. 

Since 1998, when the Colts hit a home run with Peyton Manning, there have been 15 quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall.  They're not all future first-ballot Hall of Famers, but, for the most part, they've had successful NFL careers.  In fact, of the other 14, I'd say only three (maybe four) were complete busts.  Although the jury's still out on Jameis Winston.

Hits

• Peyton Manning (Colts, 1998): It's hard to overstate the impact Peyton Manning had on both the Indianapolis Colts franchise and the NFL as a whole.  Five MVPs, numerous passing records, four Super Bowl appearances, two Lombardi Trophies, a Super Bowl MVP, and soon a bust in Canton.  Sure, some of that came after he went to Denver, but does that really matter?  There wouldn't be a new stadium in Indianapolis had Peyton never been a Colt.
• Michael Vick (Falcons, 2001): Forget about the three-year suspension for a second and just consider his career as a football player.  Electric in Atlanta (he had a 1,000-yard rushing season in 2006).  Then, after his legal troubles, he went to Philadelphia, threw 21 touchdown passes in 2010 and led the league in passing yards in 2011.
• Carson Palmer (Bengals, 2003): If he hadn't played for the Bengals and Cardinals, a case could be made that Carson Palmer is a borderline Hall of Famer.  A great seven-year run in Cincinnati that included two playoff appearances, a two-year exile in Oakland, then five seasons in Arizona, three of which were sensational.  He threw 35 touchdown passes in 2015, when the Cardinals reached the NFC Championship Game.  Having a Hall of Fame wide receiver in Larry Fitzgerald sure helped, but Carson Palmer put together a very nice 14-year career of his own.
• Eli Manning (Chargers/Giants, 2004): This one obviously comes with an asterisk, but I don't think either team is complaining.  Eli refused to play in San Diego (I still don't understand why), so the Giants drafted Philip Rivers and the teams swapped QBs.  They're both their team's starter to this day.  Rivers backed up Drew Brees for two years and has started every game ever since.  Eli has won two Super Bowls, was named MVP of both, and is widely considered the best QB in Giants history (even if his career is on the downside).
• Alex Smith (49ers, 2005): I've always thought Alex Smith got kind of a raw deal in San Francisco.  People considered him a "bust," but it's hard to succeed when you have a new head coach and offensive coordinator every year.  After he was traded to Kansas City, he finally had some stability.  And he thrived.  Last year the Chiefs traded him to the Redskins to make room for some guy named Mahomes who had a pretty good season...and Washington was in first place until he suffered that gruesome leg injury on a Monday night in November.  I hope he's able to come back from it.
• Matthew Stafford (Lions, 2009): How many different starting quarterbacks did the Lions have before Matthew Stafford came along?  The answer is a lot.  How many have they had since then?  One.  Stafford hasn't missed a game since 2011 and has set all kinds of franchise records.  In fact, when he signed his contract extension in 2017, he was briefly the highest-paid player in NFL history.  Oh, and did I mention he threw for 5,000 yards in 2011?  See, something good can come out of 0-16.
• Cam Newton (Panthers, 2011): Win the Heisman, win the National Championship, win the Rookie of the Year.  He didn't have a bad 13 months in 2010-11.  That success has only continued, highlighted by an MVP season in 2015, when Newton led the Panthers to a 15-1 regular season and an appearance in Super Bowl 50.  He hasn't quite gotten back to that level since, but that doesn't change the fact Carolina's in good hands at the quarterback position.
• Andrew Luck (Colts, 2012): Indy is 2-for-2 when drafting quarterbacks No. 1 overall (well, 2-for-3 if you count Jeff George).  After Peyton missed the 2011 season due to injury, the Colts ended up with the No. 1 pick again and fired him to take Andrew Luck.  All Luck has done is lead them to the playoffs in four of his five healthy seasons, including a trip to the Deflategate AFC Championship Game in 2014.  Oh, yeah, he's made four Pro Bowls and was last season's Comeback Player of the Year, too.  So I'd say this pick worked out alright.
• Jared Goff (Rams, 2016): Preparing for their move back where they belong in LA, the Rams traded up to take Goff No. 1 overall three years ago.  I'd say it was a good decision.  Because his last two years have been exceptional.  In the last two years, he's led the Rams to back-to-back division titles and made the Pro Bowl each time.  So what if he was horrible in Patriots Game LIII.  The fact remains that he started one at age 24, and it probably won't be the last time he's playing on the first Sunday in February.
• Baker Mayfield (Browns, 2018): Ever since reentering the league in 1999, the Browns have been looking for a franchise quarterback.  They can stop looking.  Because Baker Mayfield is the real deal.  And, as a result, for the first time in a long time, a franchise that was moribund for so many years suddenly became watchable again.  It all started on a Thursday night against the Jets.  Who knows where it'll lead?  But expectations are high in Cleveland, and their quarterback is a big reason why.

Misses

• Tim Couch (Browns, 1999): Before Mayfield came along, the Browns had a dubious history at the quarterback position.  When Cleveland rejoined the league in 1999, they drafted Tim Couch out of Kentucky No. 1 overall.  Why they thought this guy was an NFL quarterback (let alone worth making the No. 1 pick in the Draft) is beyond me.  How he was their regular starter for four years is equally as confusing.
• David Carr (Texans, 2002): Ditto about the Texans.  When they joined the league in 2002, they made David Carr the No. 1 overall pick.  He got sacked a lot that season.  Carr actually lasted four years as Houston's starter before playing in just 16 games combined over the next six years as a backup for the Giants, 49ers and Panthers.  His brother, Derek, meanwhile, has been far more successful, starting all but two of the Raiders' games over the past five years and making three Pro Bowls.
• JaMarcus Russell (Raiders, 2007): Derek Carr has had a slightly better career than the QB Oakland took No. 1 overall in 2007 (after they passed on Matt Leinart in 2006, despite not having a quarterback then).  Things did not go well with JaMarcus Russell.  In three years, he went 7-18 as a starter and threw 23 interceptions while barely completing 50 percent of his passes.
• Sam Bradford (Rams, 2010): Not every Heisman-winning Oklahoma QB taken No. 1 is a slam dunk.  Bradford's actually still in the league.  He started the first three games for Arizona last year before losing his job to Josh Rosen and ultimately being released.  The Cardinals were his third team in four years after being traded from the Rams to the Eagles in 2015.  None of them have resulted in a playoff appearance.

TBA

• Jameis Winston (Buccaneers, 2015): Part of me wants to say that Jameis Winston has had a successful early career in Tampa Bay.  Then another part of me wants to call him a bust.  Which is why I'm officially putting him in the "undecided" category.  He was Rookie of the Year in 2015 and the Bucs almost made the playoffs the following season, but the last two years haven't been good at all.  And Tampa Bay, you could argue, did better early in the season when Winston was suspended and Ryan Fitzpatrick was playing quarterback last year.  So, I just don't know.  Winston's still got some time to prove himself, though.