With CC Sabathia set to reach 3,000 strikeouts and Albert Pujols about to collect his 2,000th RBI any day now, the discussion shifts to who's get there next. It's a legitimate question. Because in this day and age, the old baseball milestones are getting harder and harder to come by.
In order to reach one of those traditional Hall of Fame benchmarks, you first need to be a veteran. And, as we've seen recently, teams don't value veterans nearly as much as they once did. You also need to be productive enough early in your career to give yourself a shot later on, allowing for injuries and the to-be-expected late career drop off. Which could lead to us reconsidering those standards entirely.
Let's take a look at some of those standards, see who's close, and if getting there is actually a possibility:
3000 hits - Closest: Miguel Cabrera (2704), Robinson Cano (2497)
It's reasonable to think that the 3,000-hit plateau is still reachable. Miggy needs fewer than 300 hits, so if he's able to stay on the field over the next two seasons, he should get there in either late 2020 or early 2021. Either way, I think he'll play long enough to get there. Robinson Cano is borderline. He's the same age as Miggy, but more than 200 hits behind him. He'll either need a monster year (or two) or to play until he's 40.
After those two, though, we'll probably have to wait until Mike Trout for the next player to join the 3,000-hit club. He's in his ninth season and already over 1,200. If he continues his standard level of production, he should get there in about 2028 or 2029. Jose Altuve has a shot, too. He's also in his ninth year and has 1,500 career hits. So, another nine years and another 1,500 hits will get him to 3,000.
500 home runs - Closest: Miguel Cabrera (466)
Miggy getting to 3,000 hits seems like a lock. His getting to 500 homers is a little more questionable. Once again, it really comes down to his health. If he were still in his prime, we could expect him to hit those 34 homers this season. But at this point in his career, even 30 might be pushing it. Although, if he can hit 20 this year, it's reasonable to think he can get 14 next year.
Giancarlo Stanton's at 305, so he's built himself a nice cushion. With a few more years of playing his home games in Yankee Stadium, especially in this homer-happy era, he's well on his way. Trout's at 246 and hits 35 a year. It's reasonable to think he'll get to 3,000 hits first, with his 500th homer not too far behind.
There's really no reason to worry about the offensive benchmarks. Those numbers--500 home runs and 3,000 hits--remain achievable. It's the pitching ones that we really have worry about. CC might get some company in the 3,000-strikeout club soon. But I have no idea when, or if, any pitcher will ever get to 300 wins again.
3000 strikeouts - Closest: Justin Verlander (2759), Max Scherzer (2503)
Both former Tigers are well on their way to 3,000 strikeouts. Verlander will probably get there sometime next season. And Scherzer strikes out 200 guys a year, so he's looking at 2021 for the milestone.
They aren't the only ones. Felix Hernandez isn't the pitcher he once was and still needs 512. I'm not sure he'll pitch long enough to get them. I've got more faith in Clayton Kershaw getting there. He's 700 away and has had some injury problems over the past few seasons. But we all know how dominant a healthy Clayton Kershaw can be. And you know he's gonna pitch long enough to get 700 more strikeouts.
300 wins - Closest: CC Sabathia (247)
Yeah, this one's not gonna happen anytime soon. CC's retiring after the season and his goal is 250. Verlander's the only other active pitcher over 200, and he's at 208. It's a lot easier to compile strikeouts than wins. Verlander has said he wants to pitch for another few years. But even that's not long enough to get 92 more wins. That 250 number seems much more reasonable for him, too. Because 300 is practically untouchable. No one else is close enough to even be in the discussion.
400 saves - Closest: Fernando Rodney (325)
Fernando Rodney is 42 years old and not even a closer. He isn't getting to 400 saves. Neither is Jose Valverde, who somehow is second among active players with 288 saves. There are two active players who reasonably could get to 400, though--Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman. They're both young enough and on teams that are good enough to reach the milestone only six others have hit. Jansen has 278 saves, so he should get there first. Chapman, currently at 241, should do it roughly a year later.
So, it would be a stretch to say that these milestones are unattainable. They're difficult to reach, yes. But that's the entire point. That's why hitting those marks puts you in the conversation for the Hall of Fame.
Is CC Sabathia a Hall of Famer? The voters will have the next 15 years to think about it. But if you're basing it off the numbers, he's got to be in the discussion. And, consider this: Of the other 16 pitchers with 3,000 strikeouts, 15 are in the Hall of Fame and the 16th is Roger Clemens.
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