I said the other day that the NL East was going to be the most competitive division in baseball this season. I still think that. But the NL Central will give the East a run for its money. In the East, there are four teams capable of winning the division and one bottom-feeder, while in the Central it's three and two (even though Cincinnati and Pittsburgh aren't anywhere near Marlins territory).
The Cubs and Brewers should be just as good as they were last year, the Cardinals have gotten a little sick of watching the playoffs from their couch, the Reds will suck less, and the Pirates could easily disrupt everything. The addition of Paul Goldschmidt is going to make a world of difference in St. Louis. Enough to make it a three-team race for the division title.
But who has the edge in that race? It's hard not to pick the Cubs. Sure, they crashed and burned big time in October, losing both the NL Central playoff and the Wild Card Game at home on consecutive days. But they've still got the most talent in the division and the resources to make the necessary moves at the deadline. For Milwaukee, everything went right last year. All the way until Game 7 of the NLCS. Can the Brewers do that again? Sure. It just seems less certain than the Cubs doing what they've been doing for another year.
There's another race we've gotta think about, too. Because all five teams that don't win the East and Central will battle the Rockies for a spot in the Wild Card Game. And call me crazy, but I think one of those will come from the Central. With either the Cardinals or Brewers the most likely to snag it.
1. Chicago Cubs: Last year, the Cubs got absolutely nothing from Yu Darvish and made the playoffs anyway. But, assuming Darvish returns to his pre-2017 World Series form, that rotation is downright nasty. Especially when you consider they'll get a whole year of Cole Hamels. Kyle Hedricks is their No. 4 starter. He won 14 games last season and just signed a contract extension. And he's their No. 4! You combine that rotation with a solid bullpen, and you've got the team to beat in the NL Central.
And I haven't even talked about their offense yet. Javy Baez's coming-out party was in the 2016 playoffs. But that almost pales in comparison to his 2018 regular season. On a team with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, he's the one who was a finalist for MVP. With three MVP candidates in the middle of the lineup and Kyle Schwarber hitting the ball a mile, there's a lot to be excited about in Wrigleyville this year. The Cubs are so deep that Ian Happ will start the season in Triple-A and David Bote will start it on the bench. The good thing that's been going on the North Side shows no sign of stopping in 2018.
Projected Lineup: Albert Almora Jr.-CF, Ben Zobrist-2B, Kris Bryant-3B, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Kyle Schwarber-LF, Javier Baez-SS, Jason Heyward-RF, Willson Contreras-C
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana
Closer: Brandon Morrow
Projected Record: 93-69
2. St. Louis Cardinals: It's been three years since the Cardinals made the playoffs. In St. Louis, that's an eternity. And they spent the offseason doing everything they could to make sure that drought comes to an end. The trade for Paul Goldschmidt was the tell-tale sign that they're all-in for 2019. For one, it moves Matt Carpenter back across the diamond where he belongs. But more importantly, Goldschmidt gives the Cardinals the one thing they've been missing since Albert Pujols left--a power-hitting run-producer in the middle of the lineup. And that addition changes everything. Because their lineup is so much more balanced with that big bat to build around.
They've also improved their pitching. The rotation is fine as long as Miles Mikolas, Michael Wacha and especially Adam Wainwright stay healthy. It'll get that much better when and if Carlos Martinez returns. The Cardinals' weakness over the past few seasons, though, has been the bullpen. And they addressed that by signing Andrew Miller. Miller's shown he can be successful in any role, so they have options for how to use him. With Brett Cecil and Luke Gregerson starting the season on the DL, he could end up closing early on. I'm not saying Miller will be like that other any-situation lefty reliever in the division. But the improved bullpen and deeper lineup make the Cardinals a legitimate threat to end their playoff drought.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-RF, Kolten Wong-2B, Matt Carpenter-3B, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Marcell Ozuna-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Paul DeJong-SS, Harrison Bader-CF
Projected Rotation: Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright
Closer: Andrew Miller
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card)
3. Milwaukee Brewers: All of the Brewers' moves prior to last season worked out magnificently. And they were nearly rewarded with an NL pennant. So what do they do heading into 2019? Double down. They re-signed Mike Moustakas (although I'm not sure about that whole second base plan) and brought in Yasmani Grandal (who really needed a change of scenery). And with everyone else returning, the Brewers are going to have a potent lineup again. (I also think we've only just scratched the surface of how good NL MVP Christian Yelich can be.)
Milwaukee's other big weapon last season was that ridiculous bullpen anchored by Josh Hader. They've been linked to Craig Kimbrel (who, incredibly, is still unsigned), which would be an incredibly smart signing. That would allow them to keep Hader in the same role while Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress are out injured to start the season. The rotation is the real question mark for this team, though. Last year they did the "opener" thing in the playoffs because they didn't have enough starting pitching. They still don't. And Jhoulys Chacin isn't enough to carry them all by himself.
Projected Lineup: Lorenzo Cain-CF, Christian Yelich-RF, Ryan Braun-LF, Jesus Aguilar-1B, Mike Moustakas-2B, Travis Shaw-3B, Yasmani Grandal-C, Orlando Arcia-SS
Projected Rotation: Jhoulys Chacin, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Zach Davies
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 84-78
4. Cincinnati Reds: Are the Cincinnati Reds suddenly going to be contenders for the NL Central title? No. Are the Cincinnati Reds going to be a much better team that's a lot of fun to watch? Absolutely. They made a big splash by making that trade with the Dodgers that sent Yasiel Puig to Cincinnati. Yasiel Puig was already one of the most entertaining players in baseball. Now he's about to be unleashed. With the numbers he put up in a part-time role at Dodger Stadium, just imagine what he'll do playing half his games in the Great American Small Park!
Puig and Matt Kemp join a lineup that was already loaded with Eugenio Suarez and longtime Face of the Franchise Joey Votto (although Scooter Gennett is out 2-3 months). It's the improved pitching staff that has Reds fans optimistic, though. Last season, Homer Bailey started 20 games despite going 1-14 overall. Compared to that, Sonny Gray's 2018 season was practically Cy Young-worthy. For a guy who struggled at Yankee Stadium, another hitter's paradise in Cincinnati might not exactly be the best fit, either. But the change of scenery and new lease on life will both be good for him. And the Reds' April 2019 rotation is drastically better than the one they had in September 2018. Then they get to hand the ball to Raisel Iglesias.
Projected Lineup: Jose Peraza-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Yasiel Puig-RF, Jesse Winkler-LF, Scott Schebler-CF, Tucker Barnhart-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, Anthony DeSclafani, Tyler Mahle
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 70-92
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Top to bottom, the NL Central might be the strongest division in baseball. Which means the Pirates could be the best last place team. And they're not exactly bad. They just aren't as good as the other teams in the division, especially the top three. They'll be good enough to give them fits, though. Because the Pirates are going to be a tough out every night. Especially on the nights when Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer are pitching. Because that Pittsburgh bullpen, anchored by a solid closer in Felipe Vazquez, could easily turn it into a six-inning game.
Offensively, they just don't have enough to keep up, though. Don't get me wrong, they've got a solid lineup and Starling Marte is a genuine star. But a solid lineup isn't enough to cut it against the star-laden groups in Chicago and Milwaukee (and even St. Louis). And they'll really be hurting without Josh Harrison. He was the guy that made the Pirates go. Which puts even more of a burden on the outfielders and Francisco Cervelli. But I'm not sure who'll be on base for them to drive in. The All-Stars in the middle of the lineup might have to do a lot of the run-producing themselves.
Projected Lineup: Adam Frazier-2B, Gregory Polanco-RF, Starling Marte-CF, Corey Dickerson-LF, Francisco Cervelli-C, Josh Bell-1B, Jung-Ho Kang-3B, Erik Gonzalez-SS
Projected Rotation: Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, Jordan Lyles
Closer: Felipe Vazquez
Projected Record: 68-94
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