And since the season is about to start, I figured this was probably time for Part I of my annual baseball preview. I normally start with the AL East, but with two AL West teams getting the season started, I figured it made more sense to start there instead this year.
It should be the same old story in the AL West this season. The Astros aren't as good as they were in either of the last two years. But they're still head-and-shoulders above the other four teams in the division, and they should win it running away again. The Mariners and Rangers are both rebuilding. The Angels and A's, though, should be in the mix for the second wild card.
1. Houston Astros: Dallas Keuchel is still a free agent, and might actually return to Houston after spending all winter assuming the Astros were moving on. Let's, for the sake of argument, assume that they have, though. It's not like their rotation will struggle without him. Not when they've got Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in the top two spots, and Wade Miley as Keuchel's replacement.
In fact, I'd argue that the Astros' biggest loss is Marwin Gonzalez. That guy can play anywhere, and that versatility really came in handy. They replaced him with Michael Brantley, who's a tremendous hitter and gives them the lefty bat they needed. But he's also way too injury-prone. In Cleveland, he was either an MVP candidate or spent the entire season on the DL (I don't care that they renamed it, I'm still going to call it that). Houston's starting lineup is really good. The Astros' challenge will be to overcome injuries if their are any. Especially to Altuve, Correa, Springer or Bregman. Regardless, they really only need to worry about those guys being healthy in October.
Projected Lineup: George Springer-CF, Alex Bregman-3B, Jose Altuve-2B, Carlos Correa-SS, Michael Brantley-LF, Yuli Gurriel-1B, Josh Reddick-RF, Tyler White-DH, Robinson Chirinos-C
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Collin McHugh, Wade Miley, Brad Peacock
Closer: Roberto Osuna
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Collin McHugh, Wade Miley, Brad Peacock
Closer: Roberto Osuna
Projected Record: 95-67
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Well, Mike Trout sure got paid, didn't he? The Angels were smart to not even give him the chance at being a free agent and potentially pulling a Harper. Yes, they've gotten burned on long-term contracts before. But Mike Trout is the face of the franchise and the best player in baseball. They had no choice but to keep him around.
One of those albatross contracts belongs to Albert Pujols, who's been pushed into a part-time role. They signed Justin Bour to play first base, which means Albert's at-bats will come as the DH. At least until Shohei Ohtani comes back. Ohtani can't pitch this year while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, which is actually somewhat good news since it means they'll have his bat all year once he returns to the lineup in May. If they can weather that first month without him, their rebuilt pitching staff (which, granted, isn't as good without Ohtani) could keep them in the wild card hunt. And you know they have the finances to enhance their rotation at the Trade Deadline. If all goes well in Anaheim this year, I can see them getting the second wild card and Trout playing in his fourth career playoff game. Although, another typical, disappointing, 78-84 season where Trout puts up MVP-type numbers is also entirely possible.
Projected Lineup: Zack Cozart-3B, Andrelton Simmons-SS, Mike Trout-CF, Justin Upton-LF, Albert Pujols-DH, Justin Bour-1B, Kole Calhoun-RF, Jonathan Lucroy-C, David Fletcher-2B
Projected Rotation: Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Jaime Barria
Closer: Chad Allen
Projected Record: 84-78
3. Oakland Athletics: Last year, we knew who four of the AL playoff teams would be before the season started. Nobody could've expected that it would be the A's who'd join them. Yet there I was at Yankee Stadium in October watching Oakland play in the Wild Card Game. And they could easily go back. Because unlike last year, they've got guys you've actually heard of this season!
I'd even venture to say that the team Oakland took to Japan is better than the one that took the field in the Wild Card Game. They lost Jed Lowrie, but replaced him with Jurickson Profar, who'll finally get the chance to play everyday. And Matt Chapman is an MVP candidate. Plus, you can count on 30 homers and 100 RBIs from Mr. .247 himself, Khris Davis. Consider, too, that last year they made the playoffs despite not really having any pitching. If they can get anything, and I mean anything at all, out of their starters, they'll be in tremendous shape. Because they've got a tremendous bullpen anchored by lights-out closer Blake Treinen.
Projected Lineup: Ramon Laureano-CF, Jurickson Profar-2B, Matt Olson-1B, Matt Chapman-3B, Khris Davis-DH, Stephen Piscotty-RF, Robbie Grossman-LF, Josh Phegley-C, Marcus Semien-SS
Projected Rotation: Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Brett Anderson, Frankine Montas, Aaron Brooks
Closer: Blake Treinen
Projected Record: 82-80
4. Seattle Mariners: Seattle's one of the most interesting teams in all of baseball. For the last few years, the Mariners were trying desperately to end their playoff drought with no success. So what do they do heading into this season? Trade their highest-paid player (Robinson Cano), closer (Edwin Diaz) and best starting pitcher (James Paxton) and let their best hitter (Nelson Cruz) walk as a free agent. But they aren't exactly waiving the white flag, since they got Jay Bruce in the Cano trade and also added Edwin Encarnacion as the new DH.
What the Mariners are trying to do (contend and rebuild at the same time) isn't easy. And, frankly, it's probably not going to work. Their Opening Day lineup looks nothing it did last year. Although, they finally realized the Dee Gordon-in-center field thing was a dumb idea (even if Cano getting a PED suspension forced their hand there). Ichiro's stay on the roster is only a token appearance so he can end his career in Japan, and Felix Hernandez not only won't start on Opening Day for the first time in forever, he'll start the season as the No. 4 starter. (BTW, they have two starting pitchers with single-digit numbers, which is beyond unacceptable.) So, the transition has already started in earnest. They're still good enough to be competitive. But good enough to end the longest postseason drought in pro sports? Unfortunately, probably not.
Projected Lineup: Dee Gordon-2B, Tim Beckham-SS, Kyle Seager-3B, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Mitch Haniger-RF, Ryon Healy-1B, Jay Bruce-LF, Omar Narvaez-C, Mallex Smith-CF
Projected Rotation: Marco Gonzalez, Yusei Kikuchi, Mike Leake, Felix Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc
Closer: Hunter Strickland
Projected Record: 72-90
5. Texas Rangers: Adrian Beltre retired, and so ended any reason to watch the Texas Rangers. This is the final season before they open their new ballpark, and it's obvious they'd rather contend next year in the new place. Texas will be one of the worst teams in the American League this season. They're not on Orioles/Royals/Tigers level. But fans in Arlington are probably already counting down the days until Cowboys training camp (if not Cowboys OTAs and mini camp).
Reasons to watch the Rangers? (I'm having trouble coming up with some for both the baseball and hockey teams.) Well, they play in a bandbox, so even without Beltre, they'll do plenty of hitting. Although, it'll be up to Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo and Rougned Odor to do most of the heavy-lifting, and they're not exactly Adrian Beltre at the plate. Pitching-wise, this team is a mess, though. They signed Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller, traded for Drew Smyly and brought back Edinson Volquez after a year in Triple A to anchor the rotation. Not exactly a who's who of Major League starting pitchers. From what I gather, closer Jose Leclerc is perfectly serviceable, but I just don't know how many save opportunities he's gonna get. I see a lot of 11-9 and 8-6 losses ahead for the Rangers.
Projected Lineup: Delino DeShields-CF, Shin-Soo Choo-DH, Elvis Andrus-SS, Ronald Guzman-1B, Joey Gallo-LF, Rougned Odor-2B, Asdrubal Cabrera-3B, Nomar Mazara-RF, Jeff Mathis-C
Projected Rotation: Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Drew Smyly, Edinson Volquez, Shelby Miller
Closer: Jose Leclerc
Projected Record: 70-92
While the AL West will continue to be Houston's domain, the Astros might not be the only team in the division that ends up in the playoffs. The Angels and A's should both hang around the wild card race for most of the season. In fact, their only competition might come from each other and the Twins. And, who knows? If all goes well for them and Houston struggles, the division title might be attainable after all. I wouldn't bet against the Astros if I was you, though.
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