We made it! Opening Day is here! After a long winter, it's finally time for a new baseball season! Which means I should probably finish off my preview. And the last of the six divisions is the NL West, where things shouldn't be much different than they've been over the past few seasons.
The Dodgers have won six straight division titles, and there's little reason to believe they won't make it seven. They've made back-to-back World Series appearances, and they're favored by many to get there again this season. They're arguably the most complete team in the National League, and there's no debating they're one of the best.
If anyone has a chance at knocking off the Dodgers, it very well could be the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are coming off consecutive playoff appearances, and they've locked up their key players long-term while adding some more big bats. San Diego's also going to be a lot better with Manny Machado now in town, while the Diamondbacks are just good enough to cause problems. And it's an odd year, so it's probably a safe bet that the Giants won't win the World Series.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers: How good and how deep are the Dodgers? They were able to trade Yasiel Puig (the most entertaining player on the team) and choose not to re-sign Yasmani Grandal, yet their lineup figures to be just as potent, if not more so. The Dodgers like to platoon. Not because they have to, but because they have too much talent and they need to spread the at-bats around. The only guys you can count on being in the lineup everyday (barring injury, of course) are Justin Turner, new center fielder A.J. Pollock and Corey Seager, who returns after missing the end of last year's World Series run. Cody Bellinger could be in right field or at first base, that is if Max Muncy's not playing first. Like I said, Dave Roberts has plenty of options.
Roberts has plenty of options on the mound, too. It does feel weird that Clayton Kershaw's not going to start on Opening Day, but games in October are far more important for this team than games in March. And when you consider that Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Rich Hill being out means Kenta Maeda and Julio Urias will start the season in the rotation before one or both of them moves to the bullpen, it's clear they've got plenty of pitching. They strengthened the bullpen, too, bringing in Joe Kelly as another setup man in front of Kenley Jansen, one of the game's elite closers. Two straight World Series could easily become three.
Projected Lineup: A.J. Pollock-CF, Corey Seager-SS, Justin Turner-3B, Max Muncy-1B, Cody Bellinger-RF, Joc Pederson-LF, Kike Hernandez-2B, Austin Barnes-C
Projected Rotation: Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, Ross Stripling
Closer: Kenley Jansen
Projected Record: 93-69
2. Colorado Rockies: They've moved some guys around, mainly because they opted not to re-sign free agents Carlos Gonzalez and D.J. LeMahieu. Which frees up more at bats for David Dahl and Ryan McMahon. They also signed Daniel Muprhy. He'll play first, which moves fellow former National Ian Desmond to center, and Charlie Blackmon shifts to right. And they just locked up franchise stalwart Nolan Arenado for another eight years. So, yeah, they're gonna do some hitting. Just like they usually do. It really is a question of whether they'll get enough pitching in support.
Their rotation doesn't have the name recognition of the other teams in the division. But it's solid. Solid enough to get them back to the playoffs? I'm not so sure. Kyle Freeland, Jon Gray and Tyler Anderson are a capable group, though. And bullpen is very strong, even without Adam Ottavino in the setup role (I'm still not sure how he was able to put up those numbers pitching in Colorado). Still, if they get six innings out of the starter and get the ball to Wade Davis with the lead, they'll be in pretty good shape. They should be in the mix for a return trip to the Wild Card Game, and maybe even their first-ever NL West title.
Projected Lineup: Charlie Blackmon-RF, Trevor Story-SS, Daniel Murphy-1B, Nolan Arenado-3B, Ian Desmond-CF, David Dahl-LF, Ryan McMahon-2B, Chris Iannetta-C
Projected Rotation: Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray, Chad Bettis
Closer: Wade Davis
Projected Record: 87-75
3. San Diego Padres: Last year they made a big free agent splash with Eric Hosmer and it didn't really pan out. This year they made an even bigger splash, inking Manny Machado for 10 years and $300 million. Which shows they're ready to make a push. They showed it even more by starting Fernando Tatis, Jr., in the Majors. Baseball's No. 2 overall prospect will be San Diego's Opening Day shortstop, making him the youngest position player in Padres history. And he'll be surrounded by three solid veterans in Hosmer, Machado and Ian Kinsler. The Padres aren't there yet, but they're definitely on their way.
Offensively they should be fine. But it's on the pitching side that they'll struggle. They're the only team in the NL West without a bona fide staff ace. I honestly have never heard of any of the five guys in their Opening Day rotation. I do know their closer is Kirby Yates, though. And Trevor Hoffman he's not. Petco Park is a pitcher's haven. Which is why it's interesting that they focused on the offense first. (But when you have the chance to sign Manny Machado, you sign Manny Machado.) This just the beginning for the Padres. They can focus on the pitching next. And who knows? Maybe they'll end up signing Dallas Keuchel, too.
Projected Lineup: Ian Kinsler-2B, Manny Machado-3B, Eric Hosmer-1B, Wil Myers-LF, Hunter Renfroe-RF, Manuel Margot-CF, Fernando Tatis Jr.-SS, Austin Hedges-C
Projected Rotation: Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, Chris Paddack, Matt Strahm, Jacob Nix
Closer: Kirby Yates
Projected Record: 78-84
4. Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona made it a three-team race for most of last season on the strength of its pitching and Paul Goldschmidt's bat. Goldschmidt is now in St. Louis and Patrick Corbin is now in Washington. A.J. Pollock is gone, too, signing with the division rival Dodgers. So, the Diamondbacks are certainly going to have a different look in 2019. They'll still be built around their pitching, though. They're paying Zack Greinke an awful lot of money to be their ace, and Robbie Ray is another solid veteran starter. I don't think they've officially announced a closer, but Greg Holland is one of the best relievers in the business whatever role they decide to put him in.
It's going to be a challenge offensively for the Diamondbacks, though. Goldschmidt toiled in anonymity for all those years, but he really was the backbone of that lineup. And he'll be sorely missed. Because it puts a very heavy burden on Jake Lamb. Former Twin Eduardo Escobar, a trade deadline acquisition last season, could pick up some of that slack, as well, in his first full season with Arizona. They also made a late signing of Adam Jones, which could prove to be a steal. He no longer fit in Baltimore, but he can still play. And that signing looks even smarter with Steven Souza, Jr., out for the year. The Diamondbacks don't need to go looking for an outfielder. They've already got one.
Projected Lineup: Ketel Marte-RF, Nick Ahmed-SS, Eduardo Escobar-3B, Jake Lamb-1B, Adam Jones-CF, David Peralta-LF, Alex Avila-C, Wilmer Flores-2B
Projected Rotation: Zack Greinke, Zack Godley, Robbie Ray, Luke Weaver, Merrill Kelly
Closer: Greg Holland
Projected Record: 76-86
5. San Francisco Giants: A lot of injuries have led to a couple of long years in San Francisco. Madison Bumgarner, especially, has gone from the guy who single-handedly won the World Series to someone who can't stay healthy. And if the Giants are going to have any chance of competing, they need their ace to stay on the field and pitch every fifth day. A bounce back season by Bumgarner could shoot them into the wild card mix...or it could land them a ton of prospects when they trade him to a contender (*cough* Milwaukee *cough*) at the deadline.
Bumgarner's not the only one they need to keep healthy. Buster Posey and Brandon Belt are just as important to the Giants' success. Otherwise, this could turn into a full-scale rebuild. Right now, they're in an interesting position. Because they've still got the veterans around (in addition to Posey and Belt, there's Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford and Evan Longoria) while also trying to work in some young talent. In the NL West, that isn't exactly a recipe for success. But their pitching is good enough to hide their offensive deficiencies. It still probably isn't enough for them to think playoffs, and they probably will end up being sellers at the deadline. If everyone can stay healthy, though, they just might have one last run in them. And that would be a great going away present for retiring manager Bruce Bochy.
Projected Lineup: Gerardo Parra-RF, Joe Panik-2B, Buster Posey-C, Evan Longoria-3B, Brandon Belt-1B, Steven Duggar-CF, Michael Reed-LF, Brandon Crawford-SS
Projected Rotation: Madison Bumgarner, Derek Holland, Dereck Rodriguez, Jeff Samardzija, Drew Pomeranz
Closer: Mark Melancon
Projected Record: 70-92
So there you have it. My playoff teams in the AL are Red Sox (East), Indians (Central), Astros (West), Yankees & Angels (Wild Card). In the NL, I've got Phillies (East), Cubs (Central), Dodgers (West), Nationals & Cardinals (Wild Card). My pennant winners are the Astros and Dodgers, and it'll be third time's the charm for LA. The Dodgers will be your 2019 World Series champions.
Thursday, March 28, 2019
Tuesday, March 26, 2019
MLB 2019 (NL Central)
I said the other day that the NL East was going to be the most competitive division in baseball this season. I still think that. But the NL Central will give the East a run for its money. In the East, there are four teams capable of winning the division and one bottom-feeder, while in the Central it's three and two (even though Cincinnati and Pittsburgh aren't anywhere near Marlins territory).
The Cubs and Brewers should be just as good as they were last year, the Cardinals have gotten a little sick of watching the playoffs from their couch, the Reds will suck less, and the Pirates could easily disrupt everything. The addition of Paul Goldschmidt is going to make a world of difference in St. Louis. Enough to make it a three-team race for the division title.
But who has the edge in that race? It's hard not to pick the Cubs. Sure, they crashed and burned big time in October, losing both the NL Central playoff and the Wild Card Game at home on consecutive days. But they've still got the most talent in the division and the resources to make the necessary moves at the deadline. For Milwaukee, everything went right last year. All the way until Game 7 of the NLCS. Can the Brewers do that again? Sure. It just seems less certain than the Cubs doing what they've been doing for another year.
There's another race we've gotta think about, too. Because all five teams that don't win the East and Central will battle the Rockies for a spot in the Wild Card Game. And call me crazy, but I think one of those will come from the Central. With either the Cardinals or Brewers the most likely to snag it.
1. Chicago Cubs: Last year, the Cubs got absolutely nothing from Yu Darvish and made the playoffs anyway. But, assuming Darvish returns to his pre-2017 World Series form, that rotation is downright nasty. Especially when you consider they'll get a whole year of Cole Hamels. Kyle Hedricks is their No. 4 starter. He won 14 games last season and just signed a contract extension. And he's their No. 4! You combine that rotation with a solid bullpen, and you've got the team to beat in the NL Central.
And I haven't even talked about their offense yet. Javy Baez's coming-out party was in the 2016 playoffs. But that almost pales in comparison to his 2018 regular season. On a team with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, he's the one who was a finalist for MVP. With three MVP candidates in the middle of the lineup and Kyle Schwarber hitting the ball a mile, there's a lot to be excited about in Wrigleyville this year. The Cubs are so deep that Ian Happ will start the season in Triple-A and David Bote will start it on the bench. The good thing that's been going on the North Side shows no sign of stopping in 2018.
Projected Lineup: Albert Almora Jr.-CF, Ben Zobrist-2B, Kris Bryant-3B, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Kyle Schwarber-LF, Javier Baez-SS, Jason Heyward-RF, Willson Contreras-C
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana
Closer: Brandon Morrow
Projected Record: 93-69
2. St. Louis Cardinals: It's been three years since the Cardinals made the playoffs. In St. Louis, that's an eternity. And they spent the offseason doing everything they could to make sure that drought comes to an end. The trade for Paul Goldschmidt was the tell-tale sign that they're all-in for 2019. For one, it moves Matt Carpenter back across the diamond where he belongs. But more importantly, Goldschmidt gives the Cardinals the one thing they've been missing since Albert Pujols left--a power-hitting run-producer in the middle of the lineup. And that addition changes everything. Because their lineup is so much more balanced with that big bat to build around.
They've also improved their pitching. The rotation is fine as long as Miles Mikolas, Michael Wacha and especially Adam Wainwright stay healthy. It'll get that much better when and if Carlos Martinez returns. The Cardinals' weakness over the past few seasons, though, has been the bullpen. And they addressed that by signing Andrew Miller. Miller's shown he can be successful in any role, so they have options for how to use him. With Brett Cecil and Luke Gregerson starting the season on the DL, he could end up closing early on. I'm not saying Miller will be like that other any-situation lefty reliever in the division. But the improved bullpen and deeper lineup make the Cardinals a legitimate threat to end their playoff drought.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-RF, Kolten Wong-2B, Matt Carpenter-3B, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Marcell Ozuna-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Paul DeJong-SS, Harrison Bader-CF
Projected Rotation: Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright
Closer: Andrew Miller
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card)
3. Milwaukee Brewers: All of the Brewers' moves prior to last season worked out magnificently. And they were nearly rewarded with an NL pennant. So what do they do heading into 2019? Double down. They re-signed Mike Moustakas (although I'm not sure about that whole second base plan) and brought in Yasmani Grandal (who really needed a change of scenery). And with everyone else returning, the Brewers are going to have a potent lineup again. (I also think we've only just scratched the surface of how good NL MVP Christian Yelich can be.)
Milwaukee's other big weapon last season was that ridiculous bullpen anchored by Josh Hader. They've been linked to Craig Kimbrel (who, incredibly, is still unsigned), which would be an incredibly smart signing. That would allow them to keep Hader in the same role while Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress are out injured to start the season. The rotation is the real question mark for this team, though. Last year they did the "opener" thing in the playoffs because they didn't have enough starting pitching. They still don't. And Jhoulys Chacin isn't enough to carry them all by himself.
Projected Lineup: Lorenzo Cain-CF, Christian Yelich-RF, Ryan Braun-LF, Jesus Aguilar-1B, Mike Moustakas-2B, Travis Shaw-3B, Yasmani Grandal-C, Orlando Arcia-SS
Projected Rotation: Jhoulys Chacin, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Zach Davies
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 84-78
4. Cincinnati Reds: Are the Cincinnati Reds suddenly going to be contenders for the NL Central title? No. Are the Cincinnati Reds going to be a much better team that's a lot of fun to watch? Absolutely. They made a big splash by making that trade with the Dodgers that sent Yasiel Puig to Cincinnati. Yasiel Puig was already one of the most entertaining players in baseball. Now he's about to be unleashed. With the numbers he put up in a part-time role at Dodger Stadium, just imagine what he'll do playing half his games in the Great American Small Park!
Puig and Matt Kemp join a lineup that was already loaded with Eugenio Suarez and longtime Face of the Franchise Joey Votto (although Scooter Gennett is out 2-3 months). It's the improved pitching staff that has Reds fans optimistic, though. Last season, Homer Bailey started 20 games despite going 1-14 overall. Compared to that, Sonny Gray's 2018 season was practically Cy Young-worthy. For a guy who struggled at Yankee Stadium, another hitter's paradise in Cincinnati might not exactly be the best fit, either. But the change of scenery and new lease on life will both be good for him. And the Reds' April 2019 rotation is drastically better than the one they had in September 2018. Then they get to hand the ball to Raisel Iglesias.
Projected Lineup: Jose Peraza-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Yasiel Puig-RF, Jesse Winkler-LF, Scott Schebler-CF, Tucker Barnhart-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, Anthony DeSclafani, Tyler Mahle
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 70-92
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Top to bottom, the NL Central might be the strongest division in baseball. Which means the Pirates could be the best last place team. And they're not exactly bad. They just aren't as good as the other teams in the division, especially the top three. They'll be good enough to give them fits, though. Because the Pirates are going to be a tough out every night. Especially on the nights when Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer are pitching. Because that Pittsburgh bullpen, anchored by a solid closer in Felipe Vazquez, could easily turn it into a six-inning game.
Offensively, they just don't have enough to keep up, though. Don't get me wrong, they've got a solid lineup and Starling Marte is a genuine star. But a solid lineup isn't enough to cut it against the star-laden groups in Chicago and Milwaukee (and even St. Louis). And they'll really be hurting without Josh Harrison. He was the guy that made the Pirates go. Which puts even more of a burden on the outfielders and Francisco Cervelli. But I'm not sure who'll be on base for them to drive in. The All-Stars in the middle of the lineup might have to do a lot of the run-producing themselves.
Projected Lineup: Adam Frazier-2B, Gregory Polanco-RF, Starling Marte-CF, Corey Dickerson-LF, Francisco Cervelli-C, Josh Bell-1B, Jung-Ho Kang-3B, Erik Gonzalez-SS
Projected Rotation: Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, Jordan Lyles
Closer: Felipe Vazquez
Projected Record: 68-94
The Cubs and Brewers should be just as good as they were last year, the Cardinals have gotten a little sick of watching the playoffs from their couch, the Reds will suck less, and the Pirates could easily disrupt everything. The addition of Paul Goldschmidt is going to make a world of difference in St. Louis. Enough to make it a three-team race for the division title.
But who has the edge in that race? It's hard not to pick the Cubs. Sure, they crashed and burned big time in October, losing both the NL Central playoff and the Wild Card Game at home on consecutive days. But they've still got the most talent in the division and the resources to make the necessary moves at the deadline. For Milwaukee, everything went right last year. All the way until Game 7 of the NLCS. Can the Brewers do that again? Sure. It just seems less certain than the Cubs doing what they've been doing for another year.
There's another race we've gotta think about, too. Because all five teams that don't win the East and Central will battle the Rockies for a spot in the Wild Card Game. And call me crazy, but I think one of those will come from the Central. With either the Cardinals or Brewers the most likely to snag it.
1. Chicago Cubs: Last year, the Cubs got absolutely nothing from Yu Darvish and made the playoffs anyway. But, assuming Darvish returns to his pre-2017 World Series form, that rotation is downright nasty. Especially when you consider they'll get a whole year of Cole Hamels. Kyle Hedricks is their No. 4 starter. He won 14 games last season and just signed a contract extension. And he's their No. 4! You combine that rotation with a solid bullpen, and you've got the team to beat in the NL Central.
And I haven't even talked about their offense yet. Javy Baez's coming-out party was in the 2016 playoffs. But that almost pales in comparison to his 2018 regular season. On a team with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, he's the one who was a finalist for MVP. With three MVP candidates in the middle of the lineup and Kyle Schwarber hitting the ball a mile, there's a lot to be excited about in Wrigleyville this year. The Cubs are so deep that Ian Happ will start the season in Triple-A and David Bote will start it on the bench. The good thing that's been going on the North Side shows no sign of stopping in 2018.
Projected Lineup: Albert Almora Jr.-CF, Ben Zobrist-2B, Kris Bryant-3B, Anthony Rizzo-1B, Kyle Schwarber-LF, Javier Baez-SS, Jason Heyward-RF, Willson Contreras-C
Projected Rotation: Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Cole Hamels, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana
Closer: Brandon Morrow
Projected Record: 93-69
2. St. Louis Cardinals: It's been three years since the Cardinals made the playoffs. In St. Louis, that's an eternity. And they spent the offseason doing everything they could to make sure that drought comes to an end. The trade for Paul Goldschmidt was the tell-tale sign that they're all-in for 2019. For one, it moves Matt Carpenter back across the diamond where he belongs. But more importantly, Goldschmidt gives the Cardinals the one thing they've been missing since Albert Pujols left--a power-hitting run-producer in the middle of the lineup. And that addition changes everything. Because their lineup is so much more balanced with that big bat to build around.
They've also improved their pitching. The rotation is fine as long as Miles Mikolas, Michael Wacha and especially Adam Wainwright stay healthy. It'll get that much better when and if Carlos Martinez returns. The Cardinals' weakness over the past few seasons, though, has been the bullpen. And they addressed that by signing Andrew Miller. Miller's shown he can be successful in any role, so they have options for how to use him. With Brett Cecil and Luke Gregerson starting the season on the DL, he could end up closing early on. I'm not saying Miller will be like that other any-situation lefty reliever in the division. But the improved bullpen and deeper lineup make the Cardinals a legitimate threat to end their playoff drought.
Projected Lineup: Dexter Fowler-RF, Kolten Wong-2B, Matt Carpenter-3B, Paul Goldschmidt-1B, Marcell Ozuna-LF, Yadier Molina-C, Paul DeJong-SS, Harrison Bader-CF
Projected Rotation: Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright
Closer: Andrew Miller
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card)
3. Milwaukee Brewers: All of the Brewers' moves prior to last season worked out magnificently. And they were nearly rewarded with an NL pennant. So what do they do heading into 2019? Double down. They re-signed Mike Moustakas (although I'm not sure about that whole second base plan) and brought in Yasmani Grandal (who really needed a change of scenery). And with everyone else returning, the Brewers are going to have a potent lineup again. (I also think we've only just scratched the surface of how good NL MVP Christian Yelich can be.)
Milwaukee's other big weapon last season was that ridiculous bullpen anchored by Josh Hader. They've been linked to Craig Kimbrel (who, incredibly, is still unsigned), which would be an incredibly smart signing. That would allow them to keep Hader in the same role while Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress are out injured to start the season. The rotation is the real question mark for this team, though. Last year they did the "opener" thing in the playoffs because they didn't have enough starting pitching. They still don't. And Jhoulys Chacin isn't enough to carry them all by himself.
Projected Lineup: Lorenzo Cain-CF, Christian Yelich-RF, Ryan Braun-LF, Jesus Aguilar-1B, Mike Moustakas-2B, Travis Shaw-3B, Yasmani Grandal-C, Orlando Arcia-SS
Projected Rotation: Jhoulys Chacin, Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, Zach Davies
Closer: Josh Hader
Projected Record: 84-78
4. Cincinnati Reds: Are the Cincinnati Reds suddenly going to be contenders for the NL Central title? No. Are the Cincinnati Reds going to be a much better team that's a lot of fun to watch? Absolutely. They made a big splash by making that trade with the Dodgers that sent Yasiel Puig to Cincinnati. Yasiel Puig was already one of the most entertaining players in baseball. Now he's about to be unleashed. With the numbers he put up in a part-time role at Dodger Stadium, just imagine what he'll do playing half his games in the Great American Small Park!
Puig and Matt Kemp join a lineup that was already loaded with Eugenio Suarez and longtime Face of the Franchise Joey Votto (although Scooter Gennett is out 2-3 months). It's the improved pitching staff that has Reds fans optimistic, though. Last season, Homer Bailey started 20 games despite going 1-14 overall. Compared to that, Sonny Gray's 2018 season was practically Cy Young-worthy. For a guy who struggled at Yankee Stadium, another hitter's paradise in Cincinnati might not exactly be the best fit, either. But the change of scenery and new lease on life will both be good for him. And the Reds' April 2019 rotation is drastically better than the one they had in September 2018. Then they get to hand the ball to Raisel Iglesias.
Projected Lineup: Jose Peraza-2B, Joey Votto-1B, Eugenio Suarez-3B, Yasiel Puig-RF, Jesse Winkler-LF, Scott Schebler-CF, Tucker Barnhart-C, Jose Iglesias-SS
Projected Rotation: Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, Anthony DeSclafani, Tyler Mahle
Closer: Raisel Iglesias
Projected Record: 70-92
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Top to bottom, the NL Central might be the strongest division in baseball. Which means the Pirates could be the best last place team. And they're not exactly bad. They just aren't as good as the other teams in the division, especially the top three. They'll be good enough to give them fits, though. Because the Pirates are going to be a tough out every night. Especially on the nights when Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer are pitching. Because that Pittsburgh bullpen, anchored by a solid closer in Felipe Vazquez, could easily turn it into a six-inning game.
Offensively, they just don't have enough to keep up, though. Don't get me wrong, they've got a solid lineup and Starling Marte is a genuine star. But a solid lineup isn't enough to cut it against the star-laden groups in Chicago and Milwaukee (and even St. Louis). And they'll really be hurting without Josh Harrison. He was the guy that made the Pirates go. Which puts even more of a burden on the outfielders and Francisco Cervelli. But I'm not sure who'll be on base for them to drive in. The All-Stars in the middle of the lineup might have to do a lot of the run-producing themselves.
Projected Lineup: Adam Frazier-2B, Gregory Polanco-RF, Starling Marte-CF, Corey Dickerson-LF, Francisco Cervelli-C, Josh Bell-1B, Jung-Ho Kang-3B, Erik Gonzalez-SS
Projected Rotation: Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove, Jordan Lyles
Closer: Felipe Vazquez
Projected Record: 68-94
Sunday, March 24, 2019
MLB 2019 (NL East)
There are two things that I know about the NL East this season: 1. It's going to be crazy competitive. 2. It's going to be crazy fun to watch. I can see any of those top four teams winning the division, and each of them has a legitimate shot at the playoffs (even though one of them definitely won't). The next six months will give us some highly entertaining baseball in the most competitive division in the game.
Atlanta won the division last year and basically stood pat with a young roster. And the Braves aren't even favored to make the playoffs in a loaded division. Because while they're still really good, the Mets, Phillies and Nationals all got significantly better! Yes, even though they lost Bryce Harper (to another team in the division no less), I think Washington a better team than the one that disappointed last year.
What all this means is that the Miami Marlins might be the most important team in this division. Because the Marlins are going to give one of them problems. And whichever team that is could end up being the one watching the others pull away.
Regardless, it's easy to envision each of the other four teams finishing with a winning record. It's also easy to envision first and fourth place being separated by just a few games. I just have a feeling that the four of them are going to be that close all season. In fact, it's almost too close to call. It'd be an absolute shocker if the NL East race doesn't come down to Game 162.
1. Philadelphia Phillies: I can't remember a team being as aggressive in free agency as the Phillies were this offseason (maybe the Yankees in 2008-09?). And it was so much more than their full-court press for Harper. This is a team that faded badly down the stretch last season (due partly to poor managerial decisions), and they addressed all of their weaknesses. Which is why I give them the slight edge in the division. Although, they're just as big of a candidate to be that team who everybody thinks got so much better, but ends up crashing and burning.
The Phillies aren't just expecting to become competitive out of nowhere, though, so they should be able to handle those lofty expectations. After all, Harper may be the most notable, but let's not forget who else they brought in. They signed Andrew McCutchen, traded for J.T. Realmuto, and pulled off a Jean Segura-for-Carlos Santana swap that improved them at two positions because it allows Rhys Hoskins to stop trying to play the outfield and go back to first base where he belongs. And they solidified the back end of the bullpen by signing David Robertson. All of which should make them the favorite in a loaded NL East.
Projected Lineup: Andrew McCutchen-LF, Jean Segura-SS, Bryce Harper-RF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, J.T. Realmuto-C, Odubel Herrera-CF, Maikel Franco-3B, Cesar Hernandez-2B
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Jake Arietta, Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez
Closer: David Robertson
Projected Record: 94-68
2. Washington Nationals: This is no longer Bryce Harper's team. Which might be a good thing. Because this team's strength is its pitching. And that pitching got even better with the addition of Patrick Corbin. Throw in Anibal Sanchez as a very serviceable No. 4 starter, and the Nationals probably have the best rotation in the National League. They fortified the bullpen, too, by signing former Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal (who didn't play in 2018) as a set up man for the lights-out Sean Doolittle.
And their offense didn't really take too much of a hit with the loss of Harper. Sure, it would be nice to still have him and Daniel Murphy around, but they were already preparing themselves for life without them last season. They'll look different, sure, but Juan Soto and Victor Robles are stars in the making, and they've still got their old standbys in Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner. They also upgraded at catcher, replacing Matt Wieters with Yan Gomes, and they're hoping they got the Twins' Brian Dozier to play second base instead of the Dodgers' Brian Dozier.
Projected Lineup: Adam Eaton-RF, Brian Dozier-2B, Juan Soto-LF, Ryan Zimmerman-1B, Anthony Rendon-3B, Trea Turner-SS, Yan Gomes-C, Victor Robles-CF
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Ross
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card)
3. New York Mets: If not for everything the Phillies did in the offseason, the Mets would be the most improved team in the NL East. They saw how much better everyone else was getting, and they did everything they needed to do to keep pace. Starting with that trade with Seattle that brought some star power in Robinson Cano and yielded a closer in Edwin Diaz (and their old closer, Jeurys Familia, came back as a free agent after the A's borrowed him for a few months).
Although, who we kidding? The Mets will only go as far as their starting rotation takes them. Last season, Jacob deGrom won the Cy Young despite going just 10-9 because he got absolutely no run support. They can't rely on deGrom to be a one-man show, though. The rest of the division is too good. When the Mets reached the World Series four years ago, it was because they got outstanding starting pitching from their entire rotation all season. Injuries happen, but they've been incredibly unlucky on that front (especially when it comes to their pitchers) over the past couple seasons. If Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are able to back up deGrom the way they're capable of, though, look out. They will need to score some runs, though. Because it's tough to win when you're scoring two runs a game. Just ask deGrom. But, if they get the type of pitching their fans expect, even bringing that up just a little to like four runs a game will be enough to yield a bunch of wins.
Projected Lineup: Ahmed Rosario-SS, Jed Lowrie-3B, Michael Conforto-LF, Robinson Cano-2B, Todd Frazier-1B, Brandon Nimmo-RF, Wilson Ramos-C, Juan Lagares-CF
Projected Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz, Jason Vargas
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 90-72
4. Atlanta Braves: Loaded with talented young players and coming off a division title, you'd think the expectations were sky-high for the Atlanta Braves in 2019. But, by watching the rest of the NL East get significantly better, the Braves instead find themselves preparing for a dogfight. It's an interesting position to be in. Because there's still every reason to believe this team is capable of repeating (although, I'm not going to say they've got a 90s-era dynasty in the making). Or they could finish fourth. So is the NL East in 2019.
For the Braves to repeat, they'll need Rookie of the Year Ronald Acuna not to have a sophomore slump. They'll also need similar production from Nick Markakis after his career year. You know what you'll get from the ultra-reliable Freddie Freeman, but the Josh Donaldson signing was a big risk. It could be a steal if he puts up the MVP-type numbers from the start of his stint in Toronto. Or, if they got the injury-plagued Donaldson of the last two seasons, that's a lot of dead money in the middle of the lineup. The pitching is really the key, though. Especially in this division. I'm not saying Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb have to be All*Stars. But they're gonna have to hold their own against Scherzer, Nola and deGrom. If they don't, the Braves will really need to pick up the wins at the back end of the rotation. Honestly, I just don't think Atlanta's rotation holds up against the others. Which is why I think they'll be the odd ones out once the NL East dust is settled.
Projected Lineup: Ozzie Albies-2B, Ronald Acuna-LF, Nick Markakis-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Josh Donaldson-3B, Ender Inciarte-CF, Dansby Swanson-SS, Tyler Flowers-C
Projected Rotation: Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Kevin Gausman, Julio Teheran, Kyle Wright
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino
Projected Record: 85-77
5. Miami Marlins: As we enter Year 2 of Derek Jeter's reimagined Miami Marlins, it becomes even more abundantly clear how far this franchise is behind the other four in the division. The Marlins will at least look better on the field in one respect. They have new uniforms and a new logo, with teal making its return after that black-focused motif of the past several seasons. As for the guys wearing those uniforms, it's going to be a long year. Made even longer by the fact that J.T. Realmuto, the one guy they actually kept heading into last season, was traded to the division-rival Phillies.
So who do the Marlins have that's worth watching? Well, there's Starlin Castro. And I'm going to say center fielder Lewis Brinson is capable of a breakout despite being like a .190 career hitter. They really like Brian Anderson, too. And, just for good measure, they've got well-traveled veterans Curtis Granderson and Neil Walker supplementing the lineup. As for the pitching staff, Jose Urena anchors the rotation. He's not horrible, but when you consider who the other No. 1 starters in this division are, Urena pales in comparison. Their bullpen is surprisingly veteran-laden, with Mr. Opener himself Sergio Romo traveling down the Florida Turnpike to serve as a setup man. The Marlins know they aren't very good and don't have a chance of competing in this division. They'll have a say in who does, though. Which means we'll have to pay attention to them.
Projected Lineup: Curtis Granderson-LF, Neil Walker-1B, Starlin Castro-2B, Brian Anderson-3B, Peter O'Brien-RF, J.T. Riddle-SS, Jorge Alfaro-C, Lewis Brinson-CF
Projected Rotation: Jose Urena, Dan Straily, Trevor Richards, Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith
Closer: Drew Steckenrider
Projected Record: 64-98
Atlanta won the division last year and basically stood pat with a young roster. And the Braves aren't even favored to make the playoffs in a loaded division. Because while they're still really good, the Mets, Phillies and Nationals all got significantly better! Yes, even though they lost Bryce Harper (to another team in the division no less), I think Washington a better team than the one that disappointed last year.
What all this means is that the Miami Marlins might be the most important team in this division. Because the Marlins are going to give one of them problems. And whichever team that is could end up being the one watching the others pull away.
Regardless, it's easy to envision each of the other four teams finishing with a winning record. It's also easy to envision first and fourth place being separated by just a few games. I just have a feeling that the four of them are going to be that close all season. In fact, it's almost too close to call. It'd be an absolute shocker if the NL East race doesn't come down to Game 162.
1. Philadelphia Phillies: I can't remember a team being as aggressive in free agency as the Phillies were this offseason (maybe the Yankees in 2008-09?). And it was so much more than their full-court press for Harper. This is a team that faded badly down the stretch last season (due partly to poor managerial decisions), and they addressed all of their weaknesses. Which is why I give them the slight edge in the division. Although, they're just as big of a candidate to be that team who everybody thinks got so much better, but ends up crashing and burning.
The Phillies aren't just expecting to become competitive out of nowhere, though, so they should be able to handle those lofty expectations. After all, Harper may be the most notable, but let's not forget who else they brought in. They signed Andrew McCutchen, traded for J.T. Realmuto, and pulled off a Jean Segura-for-Carlos Santana swap that improved them at two positions because it allows Rhys Hoskins to stop trying to play the outfield and go back to first base where he belongs. And they solidified the back end of the bullpen by signing David Robertson. All of which should make them the favorite in a loaded NL East.
Projected Lineup: Andrew McCutchen-LF, Jean Segura-SS, Bryce Harper-RF, Rhys Hoskins-1B, J.T. Realmuto-C, Odubel Herrera-CF, Maikel Franco-3B, Cesar Hernandez-2B
Projected Rotation: Aaron Nola, Jake Arietta, Nick Pivetta, Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez
Closer: David Robertson
Projected Record: 94-68
2. Washington Nationals: This is no longer Bryce Harper's team. Which might be a good thing. Because this team's strength is its pitching. And that pitching got even better with the addition of Patrick Corbin. Throw in Anibal Sanchez as a very serviceable No. 4 starter, and the Nationals probably have the best rotation in the National League. They fortified the bullpen, too, by signing former Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal (who didn't play in 2018) as a set up man for the lights-out Sean Doolittle.
And their offense didn't really take too much of a hit with the loss of Harper. Sure, it would be nice to still have him and Daniel Murphy around, but they were already preparing themselves for life without them last season. They'll look different, sure, but Juan Soto and Victor Robles are stars in the making, and they've still got their old standbys in Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner. They also upgraded at catcher, replacing Matt Wieters with Yan Gomes, and they're hoping they got the Twins' Brian Dozier to play second base instead of the Dodgers' Brian Dozier.
Projected Lineup: Adam Eaton-RF, Brian Dozier-2B, Juan Soto-LF, Ryan Zimmerman-1B, Anthony Rendon-3B, Trea Turner-SS, Yan Gomes-C, Victor Robles-CF
Projected Rotation: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Joe Ross
Closer: Sean Doolittle
Projected Record: 91-71 (Wild Card)
3. New York Mets: If not for everything the Phillies did in the offseason, the Mets would be the most improved team in the NL East. They saw how much better everyone else was getting, and they did everything they needed to do to keep pace. Starting with that trade with Seattle that brought some star power in Robinson Cano and yielded a closer in Edwin Diaz (and their old closer, Jeurys Familia, came back as a free agent after the A's borrowed him for a few months).
Although, who we kidding? The Mets will only go as far as their starting rotation takes them. Last season, Jacob deGrom won the Cy Young despite going just 10-9 because he got absolutely no run support. They can't rely on deGrom to be a one-man show, though. The rest of the division is too good. When the Mets reached the World Series four years ago, it was because they got outstanding starting pitching from their entire rotation all season. Injuries happen, but they've been incredibly unlucky on that front (especially when it comes to their pitchers) over the past couple seasons. If Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are able to back up deGrom the way they're capable of, though, look out. They will need to score some runs, though. Because it's tough to win when you're scoring two runs a game. Just ask deGrom. But, if they get the type of pitching their fans expect, even bringing that up just a little to like four runs a game will be enough to yield a bunch of wins.
Projected Lineup: Ahmed Rosario-SS, Jed Lowrie-3B, Michael Conforto-LF, Robinson Cano-2B, Todd Frazier-1B, Brandon Nimmo-RF, Wilson Ramos-C, Juan Lagares-CF
Projected Rotation: Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Steven Matz, Jason Vargas
Closer: Edwin Diaz
Projected Record: 90-72
4. Atlanta Braves: Loaded with talented young players and coming off a division title, you'd think the expectations were sky-high for the Atlanta Braves in 2019. But, by watching the rest of the NL East get significantly better, the Braves instead find themselves preparing for a dogfight. It's an interesting position to be in. Because there's still every reason to believe this team is capable of repeating (although, I'm not going to say they've got a 90s-era dynasty in the making). Or they could finish fourth. So is the NL East in 2019.
For the Braves to repeat, they'll need Rookie of the Year Ronald Acuna not to have a sophomore slump. They'll also need similar production from Nick Markakis after his career year. You know what you'll get from the ultra-reliable Freddie Freeman, but the Josh Donaldson signing was a big risk. It could be a steal if he puts up the MVP-type numbers from the start of his stint in Toronto. Or, if they got the injury-plagued Donaldson of the last two seasons, that's a lot of dead money in the middle of the lineup. The pitching is really the key, though. Especially in this division. I'm not saying Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb have to be All*Stars. But they're gonna have to hold their own against Scherzer, Nola and deGrom. If they don't, the Braves will really need to pick up the wins at the back end of the rotation. Honestly, I just don't think Atlanta's rotation holds up against the others. Which is why I think they'll be the odd ones out once the NL East dust is settled.
Projected Lineup: Ozzie Albies-2B, Ronald Acuna-LF, Nick Markakis-RF, Freddie Freeman-1B, Josh Donaldson-3B, Ender Inciarte-CF, Dansby Swanson-SS, Tyler Flowers-C
Projected Rotation: Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Kevin Gausman, Julio Teheran, Kyle Wright
Closer: Arodys Vizcaino
Projected Record: 85-77
5. Miami Marlins: As we enter Year 2 of Derek Jeter's reimagined Miami Marlins, it becomes even more abundantly clear how far this franchise is behind the other four in the division. The Marlins will at least look better on the field in one respect. They have new uniforms and a new logo, with teal making its return after that black-focused motif of the past several seasons. As for the guys wearing those uniforms, it's going to be a long year. Made even longer by the fact that J.T. Realmuto, the one guy they actually kept heading into last season, was traded to the division-rival Phillies.
So who do the Marlins have that's worth watching? Well, there's Starlin Castro. And I'm going to say center fielder Lewis Brinson is capable of a breakout despite being like a .190 career hitter. They really like Brian Anderson, too. And, just for good measure, they've got well-traveled veterans Curtis Granderson and Neil Walker supplementing the lineup. As for the pitching staff, Jose Urena anchors the rotation. He's not horrible, but when you consider who the other No. 1 starters in this division are, Urena pales in comparison. Their bullpen is surprisingly veteran-laden, with Mr. Opener himself Sergio Romo traveling down the Florida Turnpike to serve as a setup man. The Marlins know they aren't very good and don't have a chance of competing in this division. They'll have a say in who does, though. Which means we'll have to pay attention to them.
Projected Lineup: Curtis Granderson-LF, Neil Walker-1B, Starlin Castro-2B, Brian Anderson-3B, Peter O'Brien-RF, J.T. Riddle-SS, Jorge Alfaro-C, Lewis Brinson-CF
Projected Rotation: Jose Urena, Dan Straily, Trevor Richards, Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith
Closer: Drew Steckenrider
Projected Record: 64-98
Saturday, March 23, 2019
MLB 2019 (AL East)
I don't think I'm breaking any news by saying the two best teams in baseball are in the AL East. Both the Red Sox and Yankees won 100 games last season, and it wouldn't surprise anybody if that happens again this year. They'll challenge each other for division supremacy all season long. And, if you don't think winning the division is important, tell that to the team that's getting tired of hosting the Wild Card Game.
Of course, the AL East also includes what's possibly the worst team in baseball. The Orioles might be slightly better than they were last season, but that's only because the bar has been set so low it seems impossible to fall under it. Toronto's in a state of transition, as well. I don't want to call it "rebuilding" because they're not in full-blown Rangers or Royals mode. But they know there's no chance they'll challenge the Yankees and Red Sox.
Then there's Tampa Bay. The Rays do their own thing. They always have. Last year, they started that stupid "opener" trend and finished .500 (having their only actual starter win the Cy Young sure helped, too). Will they challenge the Big Two? Absolutely not. But don't be surprised if they hover around .500 and maybe even hang around the wild card race until mid-September.
Who are we kidding, though? The battle at the top of the AL East will last all season. And the winner won't just be the No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs. They'll be the favorite to win the World Series, which is something that's become old hat for Boston fans (in every friggin' sport!) and has felt like forever for the Yankees' faithful (only one title since 2000, which was 10 years ago).
1. Boston Red Sox: Everything that could've gone right for the Red Sox in 2018 did, and the result was one of those all-time seasons. Everything Alex Cora touched turned to gold, every player they acquired performed, and they left little doubt who the best team in baseball was. It seemed inevitable that they were going to cap that historic season with a World Series title, which is, of course, exactly what happened.
What are the chances it happens again? Because that's exactly what they're hoping. As the old saying goes, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Which seemed to be their entire offseason strategy. They made sure they kept many of the same pieces in place, re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce (BTW, am I the only one who thought the World Series MVP should've been David Price?). They're also expecting to get Dustin Pedroia back after he missed almost all of last season with his latest injury. The one question mark on this team, though, is the bullpen. And it becomes an even bigger question mark after their decision not to bring back Craig Kimbrel. Still no idea who they plan on using as their closer, although all signs point to Ryan Brasier. Their rotation is very good. It's arguably the best in the game. But the bullpen is definitely the biggest thing that could stand between the Red Sox and a second straight World Series title.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Andrew Benintendi-LF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, J.D. Martinez-DH, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Rafael Devers-3B, Mitch Moreland-1B, Sandy Leon-C, Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez
Closer: Ryan Brasier
Projected Record: 102-60
2. New York Yankees: Ordinarily, you'd feel pretty good about yourselves after a 100-win season. When that 100-win season ends in embarrassing fashion at the hands of your bitter archrivals, though, it leaves a sour taste in your mouth. I'd argue that last year's Division Series was good for the Yankees, though. Because it made it abundantly clear that their biggest weakness--starting pitching--needed to improve dramatically. Because no matter how good your bullpen is or how many home runs you hit, quality starting pitching is still the most valuable commodity in the game (did you hear that Rays?).
So they addressed that need in the offseason, trading for James Paxton and re-signing J.A. Happ. And, for good measure, they reinforced the bullpen by re-signing Zack Britton and replacing David Robertson with Adam Ottavino. The Red Sox still have the stronger rotation (especially with Severino out to start the season), which is why I give them the slight edge in the division. But the Yankees' projected rotation this season is definitely better than last year's. Of course, they'll need reinforcements should the injuries be prolonged, which is a bit of a worry. It's also a bit of a worry that the lineup, as good as it is, is primarily right-handed. A small worry, sure. But a worry nonetheless. And, when you consider Aaron Judge missed six weeks, Gary Sanchez struggled and Gleyber Torres wasn't there the entire season last year, it's not crazy to think they can break that all-time Major League home run record they set last season. I would like them to figure out other ways to score runs, though, in case they get kept in the park.
Projected Lineup: Brett Gardner-LF, Aaron Judge-RF, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Miguel Andujar-3B, Gary Sanchez-C, Aaron Hicks-CF, Luke Voit-1B, Gleyber Torres-2B, Troy Tulowitzki-SS
Projected Rotation: Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Projected Record: 100-62 (Wild Card)
3. Tampa Bay Rays: Trying to figure out what the Tampa Bay Rays are doing is enough to drive a crazy man insane, so it's best to not even bother. The amazing thing is that it works. Last year, that stupid "opener" thing came about out of necessity, and it ended up starting a trend that more and more teams tried as the season went on. This year, they appear to be all-in on that strategy. So much so that they only have three legitimate starting pitchers listed on the roster. Of course, one of them is Blake Snell. But that's a heavy burden being put on him, Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow, who are pretty much all expected to give them innings in every one of their starts.
And will they get enough offense? That always seems to be a question in Tampa Bay, but it's a legitimate one. Although, I give them credit for being aggressive on that front during the offseason. There was that trade with Seattle that yielded catcher Mike Zunino (we'll see if a change of scenery helps the former Florida Gators star), and a separate three-team trade with the Mariners where they landed first baseman Yandy Diaz. And we'll see what they get out of Tommy Pham, too. Like I said, Tampa Bay is a hard team to read. It could all work again and the Rays could hover around .500 and maybe even hang in the wild card race. Or they could be out of it by July, trade everybody, and barely win 70.
Projected Lineup: Kevin Kiermaier-CF, Joey Wendle-2B, Yandy Diaz-3B, Avisail Garcia-DH, Ji-Man Choi-1B, Tommy Pham-LF, Austin Meadows-RF, Mike Zunino-C, Willy Adames-SS
Projected Rotation: Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow
Closer: Jose Alvarado
Projected Record: 80-83
4. Toronto Blue Jays: Let's get one thing straight. We're all just waiting for Vlad Guerrero, Jr. That's when people will start to care about the Toronto Blue Jays' season. We don't know when that will be (especially now that he's injured). But the Blue Jays will become a lot more interesting when it finally does happen. As it is, Toronto is a solid team that would possibly be able to challenge for the division title if they played in the Central. In reality, they know they don't have a chance of winning a division that includes the two best teams in the game.
If they have any chance of being in the mix for the second wild card, it'll really come down to their pitching. Because they're going to score some runs. There's plenty of power on this team that the offense won't be a problem even before Vlad Jr. gets there. But the rotation is a big question mark. Marcus Stroman has ace-like stuff when healthy. Except he's not healthy that often. And the starters behind him are serviceable, but that's about it. Aaron Sanchez is the only one who'd be anything above a No. 3 on another team. Ditto about their bullpen. They swapped Roberto Osuna for Ken Giles last season (for good reason), which was a downgrade. They've got Bud Norris around as an insurance policy, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them change closers at some point during the season.
Projected Lineup: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-2B, Randal Grichuk-RF, Justin Smoak-1B, Kendrys Morales-DH, Kevin Pillar-CF, Freddy Galvis-SS, Brandon Drury-3B, Teoscar Hernandez-LF, Danny Jansen-C
Projected Rotation: Marcus Stroman, Matt Shoemaker, Aaron Sanchez, Ryan Borucki, Clayton Richard
Closer: Ken Giles
Projected Record: 73-89
5. Baltimore Orioles: Look away, Orioles fans. Because if you thought last season was bad, this year doesn't figure to be much better. Although, all hope is not lost. The Astros endured their run of 100-loss seasons and look where they are now. Mike Elias, who used to work in the Houston front office, is now the Orioles' GM, and he's got a plan for getting the Orioles back to respectability. It'll just take a little while. Especially considering they have to play a combined 38 games against the Yankees and Red Sox.
We got a sneak peek at some of the new guys last season when they started to trade away everybody. With franchise icon Adam Jones now in Arizona, Cedric Mullins will take over in center. They're also going to have rookie Richie Martin starting at shortstop and fellow youngster Renato Nunez at third. However, the useless Chris Davis and his ridiculous contract will continue to weigh this franchise down. And Mark Trumbo's contract doesn't help much, either. The real problem is on the mound, though. Four of their starters from last season are the same and the bullpen, which once boasted the likes of Zack Britton, Darren O'Day and Brad Brach, is now anchored by Mychal Givens. Mychal Givens should not be a Major League closer. Although, there probably won't be many save opportunities to come by, so whoever ends up closing really doesn't matter. The Orioles might surprise us. But on paper, this is one of the worst teams in baseball, if not THE worst.
Projected Lineup: Cedric Mullins-CF, Jonathan Villar-2B, Mark Trumbo-DH, Chris Davis-1B, Trey Mancini-LF, Joey Rickard-RF, Renato Nunez-3B, Chance Sisco-C, Richie Martin-SS
Projected Rotation: Dylan Bundy, Andrew Cashner, Alex Cobb, David Hess, Mike Wright
Closer: Mychal Givens
Projected Record: 63-99
Of course, the AL East also includes what's possibly the worst team in baseball. The Orioles might be slightly better than they were last season, but that's only because the bar has been set so low it seems impossible to fall under it. Toronto's in a state of transition, as well. I don't want to call it "rebuilding" because they're not in full-blown Rangers or Royals mode. But they know there's no chance they'll challenge the Yankees and Red Sox.
Then there's Tampa Bay. The Rays do their own thing. They always have. Last year, they started that stupid "opener" trend and finished .500 (having their only actual starter win the Cy Young sure helped, too). Will they challenge the Big Two? Absolutely not. But don't be surprised if they hover around .500 and maybe even hang around the wild card race until mid-September.
Who are we kidding, though? The battle at the top of the AL East will last all season. And the winner won't just be the No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs. They'll be the favorite to win the World Series, which is something that's become old hat for Boston fans (in every friggin' sport!) and has felt like forever for the Yankees' faithful (only one title since 2000, which was 10 years ago).
1. Boston Red Sox: Everything that could've gone right for the Red Sox in 2018 did, and the result was one of those all-time seasons. Everything Alex Cora touched turned to gold, every player they acquired performed, and they left little doubt who the best team in baseball was. It seemed inevitable that they were going to cap that historic season with a World Series title, which is, of course, exactly what happened.
What are the chances it happens again? Because that's exactly what they're hoping. As the old saying goes, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." Which seemed to be their entire offseason strategy. They made sure they kept many of the same pieces in place, re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce (BTW, am I the only one who thought the World Series MVP should've been David Price?). They're also expecting to get Dustin Pedroia back after he missed almost all of last season with his latest injury. The one question mark on this team, though, is the bullpen. And it becomes an even bigger question mark after their decision not to bring back Craig Kimbrel. Still no idea who they plan on using as their closer, although all signs point to Ryan Brasier. Their rotation is very good. It's arguably the best in the game. But the bullpen is definitely the biggest thing that could stand between the Red Sox and a second straight World Series title.
Projected Lineup: Mookie Betts-RF, Andrew Benintendi-LF, Dustin Pedroia-2B, J.D. Martinez-DH, Xander Bogaerts-SS, Rafael Devers-3B, Mitch Moreland-1B, Sandy Leon-C, Jackie Bradley Jr.-CF
Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez
Closer: Ryan Brasier
Projected Record: 102-60
2. New York Yankees: Ordinarily, you'd feel pretty good about yourselves after a 100-win season. When that 100-win season ends in embarrassing fashion at the hands of your bitter archrivals, though, it leaves a sour taste in your mouth. I'd argue that last year's Division Series was good for the Yankees, though. Because it made it abundantly clear that their biggest weakness--starting pitching--needed to improve dramatically. Because no matter how good your bullpen is or how many home runs you hit, quality starting pitching is still the most valuable commodity in the game (did you hear that Rays?).
So they addressed that need in the offseason, trading for James Paxton and re-signing J.A. Happ. And, for good measure, they reinforced the bullpen by re-signing Zack Britton and replacing David Robertson with Adam Ottavino. The Red Sox still have the stronger rotation (especially with Severino out to start the season), which is why I give them the slight edge in the division. But the Yankees' projected rotation this season is definitely better than last year's. Of course, they'll need reinforcements should the injuries be prolonged, which is a bit of a worry. It's also a bit of a worry that the lineup, as good as it is, is primarily right-handed. A small worry, sure. But a worry nonetheless. And, when you consider Aaron Judge missed six weeks, Gary Sanchez struggled and Gleyber Torres wasn't there the entire season last year, it's not crazy to think they can break that all-time Major League home run record they set last season. I would like them to figure out other ways to score runs, though, in case they get kept in the park.
Projected Lineup: Brett Gardner-LF, Aaron Judge-RF, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Miguel Andujar-3B, Gary Sanchez-C, Aaron Hicks-CF, Luke Voit-1B, Gleyber Torres-2B, Troy Tulowitzki-SS
Projected Rotation: Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, J.A. Happ, CC Sabathia
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Projected Record: 100-62 (Wild Card)
3. Tampa Bay Rays: Trying to figure out what the Tampa Bay Rays are doing is enough to drive a crazy man insane, so it's best to not even bother. The amazing thing is that it works. Last year, that stupid "opener" thing came about out of necessity, and it ended up starting a trend that more and more teams tried as the season went on. This year, they appear to be all-in on that strategy. So much so that they only have three legitimate starting pitchers listed on the roster. Of course, one of them is Blake Snell. But that's a heavy burden being put on him, Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow, who are pretty much all expected to give them innings in every one of their starts.
And will they get enough offense? That always seems to be a question in Tampa Bay, but it's a legitimate one. Although, I give them credit for being aggressive on that front during the offseason. There was that trade with Seattle that yielded catcher Mike Zunino (we'll see if a change of scenery helps the former Florida Gators star), and a separate three-team trade with the Mariners where they landed first baseman Yandy Diaz. And we'll see what they get out of Tommy Pham, too. Like I said, Tampa Bay is a hard team to read. It could all work again and the Rays could hover around .500 and maybe even hang in the wild card race. Or they could be out of it by July, trade everybody, and barely win 70.
Projected Lineup: Kevin Kiermaier-CF, Joey Wendle-2B, Yandy Diaz-3B, Avisail Garcia-DH, Ji-Man Choi-1B, Tommy Pham-LF, Austin Meadows-RF, Mike Zunino-C, Willy Adames-SS
Projected Rotation: Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Tyler Glasnow
Closer: Jose Alvarado
Projected Record: 80-83
4. Toronto Blue Jays: Let's get one thing straight. We're all just waiting for Vlad Guerrero, Jr. That's when people will start to care about the Toronto Blue Jays' season. We don't know when that will be (especially now that he's injured). But the Blue Jays will become a lot more interesting when it finally does happen. As it is, Toronto is a solid team that would possibly be able to challenge for the division title if they played in the Central. In reality, they know they don't have a chance of winning a division that includes the two best teams in the game.
If they have any chance of being in the mix for the second wild card, it'll really come down to their pitching. Because they're going to score some runs. There's plenty of power on this team that the offense won't be a problem even before Vlad Jr. gets there. But the rotation is a big question mark. Marcus Stroman has ace-like stuff when healthy. Except he's not healthy that often. And the starters behind him are serviceable, but that's about it. Aaron Sanchez is the only one who'd be anything above a No. 3 on another team. Ditto about their bullpen. They swapped Roberto Osuna for Ken Giles last season (for good reason), which was a downgrade. They've got Bud Norris around as an insurance policy, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them change closers at some point during the season.
Projected Lineup: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.-2B, Randal Grichuk-RF, Justin Smoak-1B, Kendrys Morales-DH, Kevin Pillar-CF, Freddy Galvis-SS, Brandon Drury-3B, Teoscar Hernandez-LF, Danny Jansen-C
Projected Rotation: Marcus Stroman, Matt Shoemaker, Aaron Sanchez, Ryan Borucki, Clayton Richard
Closer: Ken Giles
Projected Record: 73-89
5. Baltimore Orioles: Look away, Orioles fans. Because if you thought last season was bad, this year doesn't figure to be much better. Although, all hope is not lost. The Astros endured their run of 100-loss seasons and look where they are now. Mike Elias, who used to work in the Houston front office, is now the Orioles' GM, and he's got a plan for getting the Orioles back to respectability. It'll just take a little while. Especially considering they have to play a combined 38 games against the Yankees and Red Sox.
We got a sneak peek at some of the new guys last season when they started to trade away everybody. With franchise icon Adam Jones now in Arizona, Cedric Mullins will take over in center. They're also going to have rookie Richie Martin starting at shortstop and fellow youngster Renato Nunez at third. However, the useless Chris Davis and his ridiculous contract will continue to weigh this franchise down. And Mark Trumbo's contract doesn't help much, either. The real problem is on the mound, though. Four of their starters from last season are the same and the bullpen, which once boasted the likes of Zack Britton, Darren O'Day and Brad Brach, is now anchored by Mychal Givens. Mychal Givens should not be a Major League closer. Although, there probably won't be many save opportunities to come by, so whoever ends up closing really doesn't matter. The Orioles might surprise us. But on paper, this is one of the worst teams in baseball, if not THE worst.
Projected Lineup: Cedric Mullins-CF, Jonathan Villar-2B, Mark Trumbo-DH, Chris Davis-1B, Trey Mancini-LF, Joey Rickard-RF, Renato Nunez-3B, Chance Sisco-C, Richie Martin-SS
Projected Rotation: Dylan Bundy, Andrew Cashner, Alex Cobb, David Hess, Mike Wright
Closer: Mychal Givens
Projected Record: 63-99
Friday, March 22, 2019
MLB 2019 (AL Central)
Seattle and Oakland are all done in Tokyo. Now we have to wait a week for the official Opening Day. But that also means I only have a week to finish my 2019 MLB preview. Which means I've got to get going. Today we continue it with the AL Central.
I don't think it's a stretch to say the AL Central is the worst division in baseball. The AL West gives it a run for its money at the bottom, but the top of the AL West is better, so they get the slight edge. In the AL Central, meanwhile, it's the Indians, the Twins and three rebuilding teams. This division is so bad that Cleveland can win it with only 85-88 wins. In fact, this might be the worst Indians team in quite a while, and they can still already start planning their postseason rotation.
Minnesota lost the Wild Card Game in 2017, then struggled last year. The Twins are capable of a bounce back, though, and they might be the only team capable of challenging the Indians for the division title. The White Sox tried to land one of the two big free agents, but they didn't get either one. They're still better than both the Tigers and Royals, though.
Cleveland will almost certainly be the division winner with the fewest wins this season. Although, maybe not. Because the Indians are the best team in this division hands down, so they can load up against their AL Central rivals. And, frankly, once the playoffs start, it won't actually matter how many regular season victories they had.
1. Cleveland Indians: So why are the Indians that much better than the rest of the division. One word: Pitching. They dangled both Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer during the offseason, but got no takers (I'm not sure they were actually serious about trading either one anyway). Throw in Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger and, if healthy, this is one of the best rotations in baseball. Their bullpen won't be as strong with both Andrew Miller and Cody Allen moving on, but with Brad Hand closing, they're still in good shape.
Offensively, they've lost some pieces. But they still have Fracisco Lindor, who's one of the best overall players in baseball. And he makes for ridiculously dynamic 1-2 punch with Jose Ramirez (who I think everyone else has figured out how good he is). And, after a year in Philly, Carlos Santana is back to DH. Even though they had Edwin Encarnacion in the DH spot, Santana's switch-hitting power was noticeably absent last season. I think being back in Cleveland will be good for him. With those three in the middle of a solid, if not spectacular, lineup, to go along with their excellent pitching, it would be a surprise if the Indians don't win the division by at least 10 games.
Projected Lineup: Francisco Lindor-SS, Jason Kipnis-2B, Jose Ramirez-3B, Carlos Santana-DH, Jake Bauers-1B, Jordan Luplow-LF, Tyler Naquin-RF, Roberto Perez-C, Leonys Martin-CF
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber
Closer: Brad Hand
Projected Record: 92-70
2. Minnesota Twins: What went right in Minnesota last season? Not a whole heck of a lot. Things were so bad that Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton both ended the season in the Minors. If they get back to the level they're capable of, the Twins are in decent shape to give the Indians a challenge. I really like their additions, too. Joe Mauer retired, but they replaced him with C.J. Cron, who's more of a traditional first baseman. And there are the free agent additions of Jonathan Schoop and Nelson Cruz, which make the lineup even longer.
For the first time since Johan Santana left, the Twins have a legitimate ace in Jose Berrios. The rest of the rotation is a little questionable, however. It's basically a bunch of No. 3 and 4 starters. Although, in the AL Central, it's beyond serviceable. I'm not sure they'd be able to withstand an extended absence by one of their starting pitchers, either. The bullpen is the shakiest part of this team, and, as of now, they haven't officially designated a closer. First-year manager Rocco Baldelli has a bit of a challenge in front of him. But it's definitely doable. Minnesota being in contention for the second wild card (or even the division title) wouldn't totally shock me.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Jonathan Schoop-2B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Miguel Sano-3B, Max Kepler-RF, Eddie Rosario-LF, C.J. Cron-1B, Jason Castro-C, Jorge Polanco-SS
Projected Rotation: Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Martin Perez
Closer: Addison Reed
Projected Record: 81-81
3. Chicago White Sox: The White Sox are less bad than the Tigers and Royals, which is why I have them finishing third. And there actually is a good amount of talent on the South Side. Just not enough to challenge Cleveland for division supremacy. Chicago's biggest addition was DH Yonder Alonso. He's Manny Machado's brother-in-law, and he was the hook in their ultimately unsuccessful attempt to land Manny. Machado obviously would've made this team significantly better, but they should be able to survive without him OK. The lineup isn't great, but it's not the worst, either.
It's on the mound where I have questions about the White Sox. Carlos Rodon is a solid Major League starter, but is he really a No. 1? Ivan Nova joins the rotation after two years in Pittsburgh to give them a veteran presence, and he's actually the only new arm they've got. So, they do have some stability in the rotation, which could definitely prove to be a benefit in the long run. And they've loaded up the bullpen. Free agent acquisitions Kelvin Herrera and Alex Colome have both been closers before, and they're both capable of filling the role. Herrera was also a set up guy in that ridiculous Royals bullpen a few years ago, so it makes sense to start the season having him pitch the eighth. And don't forget about incumbent setup man Nate Jones, either. With those three at the back end, the White Sox have a surprisingly good bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Adam Engel-CF, Yoan Moncada-3B, Jose Abreu-1B, Yonder Alonso-DH, Yolmer Sanchez-2B, Daniel Palka-LF, Welington Castillo-C, Jon Jay-RF, Tim Anderson-SS
Projected Rotation: Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez, Ivan Nova, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Covey
Closer: Alex Colome
Projected Record: 70-92
4. Detroit Tigers: Well, they don't have to pay Victor Martinez anymore. Not only are they free of that contract, it frees up the DH spot for Miguel Cabrera and his massive contract that they're stuck with. Is he going to be the Triple Crown-winning, two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera? No. But they need more than three homers and 22 RBIs for the money they're spending. Maybe moving him from first base to DH will help him stay healthy. Because his bat makes such a difference in this lineup. If he's not in the lineup, they'll have trouble scoring runs. Because I'm not sure who the RBI guy is in that case (Nicholas Castellanos?).
On the mound, meanwhile, they took a big hit when they found out Michael Fulmer has to have Tommy John surgery and is likely out until the 2020 All*Star break at the earliest. Without Fulmer, this rotation doesn't intimidate anybody at all. Jordan Zimmermann enters year four of his five-year contract (another one I bet the Tigers wish they could get off the books) as the nominal No. 1, and former Padre Tyson Ross joins the rotation this year. I'd trust those two veterans to eat up some innings, but that's about it. For some reason, Shane Greene is still the closer even though Joe Jimenez is younger and better. I'd bet that switch happens sometime around mid-June.
Projected Lineup: Jordy Mercer-SS, Josh Harrison-2B, Miguel Cabrera-DH, Nicholas Castellanos-RF, Niko Goodrum-1B, Jeimer Candelario-3B, Christin Stewart-LF, Grayson Greiner-C, JaCoby Jones-CF
Projected Rotation: Jordan Zimmermann, Matthew Boyd, Matt Moore, Tyson Ross, Daniel Norris
Closer: Shane Greene
Projected Record: 67-95
5. Kansas City Royals: Remember when the Royals went to the World Series in back-to-back years and won a title? It was only four years ago, yet it seems so long. Because it's been a mighty fall for Kansas City. It really started last year when Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas all left. And now they're without franchise stalwart Salvador Perez, who's out for the year after Tommy John surgery. Yes, Alex Gordon is still there and Whit Merrifield is a superstar in the making. And I think the change of scenery is going to be really good for Billy Hamilton, who isn't as good a center fielder as Cain, but is still good out there and gives them a speed element that was sorely lacking last year.
Number 1 starter Danny Duffy had a rough season last year. His ERA was up around 5.00 and he gave up 23 home runs. But he is still the best starting pitcher the Royals have. How bad is the Royals rotation? Homer Bailey, who went 1-14 for the Reds last season, is projected as their No. 5 starter. And his competition for that spot doesn't really blow you away (although they also have Ian Kennedy and are putting him in the bullpen for some reason). Brad Boxberger closed in Arizona last year, but will set up Wily Peralta in Kansas City this season. Either way, there probably won't be too many save situations for either one of them,
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Whit Merrifield-2B, Alex Gordon-LF, Ryan O'Hearn-1B, Jorge Soler-RF, Adalberto Mondesi-SS, Martin Maldonado-C, Hunter Dozier-DH, Chris Owings-3B
Projected Rotation: Danny Duffy, Brad Keller, Jakob Junis, Jorge Lopez, Homer Bailey
Closer: Wily Peralta
Projected Rotation: 65-97
I don't think it's a stretch to say the AL Central is the worst division in baseball. The AL West gives it a run for its money at the bottom, but the top of the AL West is better, so they get the slight edge. In the AL Central, meanwhile, it's the Indians, the Twins and three rebuilding teams. This division is so bad that Cleveland can win it with only 85-88 wins. In fact, this might be the worst Indians team in quite a while, and they can still already start planning their postseason rotation.
Minnesota lost the Wild Card Game in 2017, then struggled last year. The Twins are capable of a bounce back, though, and they might be the only team capable of challenging the Indians for the division title. The White Sox tried to land one of the two big free agents, but they didn't get either one. They're still better than both the Tigers and Royals, though.
Cleveland will almost certainly be the division winner with the fewest wins this season. Although, maybe not. Because the Indians are the best team in this division hands down, so they can load up against their AL Central rivals. And, frankly, once the playoffs start, it won't actually matter how many regular season victories they had.
1. Cleveland Indians: So why are the Indians that much better than the rest of the division. One word: Pitching. They dangled both Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer during the offseason, but got no takers (I'm not sure they were actually serious about trading either one anyway). Throw in Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger and, if healthy, this is one of the best rotations in baseball. Their bullpen won't be as strong with both Andrew Miller and Cody Allen moving on, but with Brad Hand closing, they're still in good shape.
Offensively, they've lost some pieces. But they still have Fracisco Lindor, who's one of the best overall players in baseball. And he makes for ridiculously dynamic 1-2 punch with Jose Ramirez (who I think everyone else has figured out how good he is). And, after a year in Philly, Carlos Santana is back to DH. Even though they had Edwin Encarnacion in the DH spot, Santana's switch-hitting power was noticeably absent last season. I think being back in Cleveland will be good for him. With those three in the middle of a solid, if not spectacular, lineup, to go along with their excellent pitching, it would be a surprise if the Indians don't win the division by at least 10 games.
Projected Lineup: Francisco Lindor-SS, Jason Kipnis-2B, Jose Ramirez-3B, Carlos Santana-DH, Jake Bauers-1B, Jordan Luplow-LF, Tyler Naquin-RF, Roberto Perez-C, Leonys Martin-CF
Projected Rotation: Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber
Closer: Brad Hand
Projected Record: 92-70
2. Minnesota Twins: What went right in Minnesota last season? Not a whole heck of a lot. Things were so bad that Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton both ended the season in the Minors. If they get back to the level they're capable of, the Twins are in decent shape to give the Indians a challenge. I really like their additions, too. Joe Mauer retired, but they replaced him with C.J. Cron, who's more of a traditional first baseman. And there are the free agent additions of Jonathan Schoop and Nelson Cruz, which make the lineup even longer.
For the first time since Johan Santana left, the Twins have a legitimate ace in Jose Berrios. The rest of the rotation is a little questionable, however. It's basically a bunch of No. 3 and 4 starters. Although, in the AL Central, it's beyond serviceable. I'm not sure they'd be able to withstand an extended absence by one of their starting pitchers, either. The bullpen is the shakiest part of this team, and, as of now, they haven't officially designated a closer. First-year manager Rocco Baldelli has a bit of a challenge in front of him. But it's definitely doable. Minnesota being in contention for the second wild card (or even the division title) wouldn't totally shock me.
Projected Lineup: Byron Buxton-CF, Jonathan Schoop-2B, Nelson Cruz-DH, Miguel Sano-3B, Max Kepler-RF, Eddie Rosario-LF, C.J. Cron-1B, Jason Castro-C, Jorge Polanco-SS
Projected Rotation: Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Martin Perez
Closer: Addison Reed
Projected Record: 81-81
3. Chicago White Sox: The White Sox are less bad than the Tigers and Royals, which is why I have them finishing third. And there actually is a good amount of talent on the South Side. Just not enough to challenge Cleveland for division supremacy. Chicago's biggest addition was DH Yonder Alonso. He's Manny Machado's brother-in-law, and he was the hook in their ultimately unsuccessful attempt to land Manny. Machado obviously would've made this team significantly better, but they should be able to survive without him OK. The lineup isn't great, but it's not the worst, either.
It's on the mound where I have questions about the White Sox. Carlos Rodon is a solid Major League starter, but is he really a No. 1? Ivan Nova joins the rotation after two years in Pittsburgh to give them a veteran presence, and he's actually the only new arm they've got. So, they do have some stability in the rotation, which could definitely prove to be a benefit in the long run. And they've loaded up the bullpen. Free agent acquisitions Kelvin Herrera and Alex Colome have both been closers before, and they're both capable of filling the role. Herrera was also a set up guy in that ridiculous Royals bullpen a few years ago, so it makes sense to start the season having him pitch the eighth. And don't forget about incumbent setup man Nate Jones, either. With those three at the back end, the White Sox have a surprisingly good bullpen.
Projected Lineup: Adam Engel-CF, Yoan Moncada-3B, Jose Abreu-1B, Yonder Alonso-DH, Yolmer Sanchez-2B, Daniel Palka-LF, Welington Castillo-C, Jon Jay-RF, Tim Anderson-SS
Projected Rotation: Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez, Ivan Nova, Lucas Giolito, Dylan Covey
Closer: Alex Colome
Projected Record: 70-92
4. Detroit Tigers: Well, they don't have to pay Victor Martinez anymore. Not only are they free of that contract, it frees up the DH spot for Miguel Cabrera and his massive contract that they're stuck with. Is he going to be the Triple Crown-winning, two-time MVP Miguel Cabrera? No. But they need more than three homers and 22 RBIs for the money they're spending. Maybe moving him from first base to DH will help him stay healthy. Because his bat makes such a difference in this lineup. If he's not in the lineup, they'll have trouble scoring runs. Because I'm not sure who the RBI guy is in that case (Nicholas Castellanos?).
On the mound, meanwhile, they took a big hit when they found out Michael Fulmer has to have Tommy John surgery and is likely out until the 2020 All*Star break at the earliest. Without Fulmer, this rotation doesn't intimidate anybody at all. Jordan Zimmermann enters year four of his five-year contract (another one I bet the Tigers wish they could get off the books) as the nominal No. 1, and former Padre Tyson Ross joins the rotation this year. I'd trust those two veterans to eat up some innings, but that's about it. For some reason, Shane Greene is still the closer even though Joe Jimenez is younger and better. I'd bet that switch happens sometime around mid-June.
Projected Lineup: Jordy Mercer-SS, Josh Harrison-2B, Miguel Cabrera-DH, Nicholas Castellanos-RF, Niko Goodrum-1B, Jeimer Candelario-3B, Christin Stewart-LF, Grayson Greiner-C, JaCoby Jones-CF
Projected Rotation: Jordan Zimmermann, Matthew Boyd, Matt Moore, Tyson Ross, Daniel Norris
Closer: Shane Greene
Projected Record: 67-95
5. Kansas City Royals: Remember when the Royals went to the World Series in back-to-back years and won a title? It was only four years ago, yet it seems so long. Because it's been a mighty fall for Kansas City. It really started last year when Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas all left. And now they're without franchise stalwart Salvador Perez, who's out for the year after Tommy John surgery. Yes, Alex Gordon is still there and Whit Merrifield is a superstar in the making. And I think the change of scenery is going to be really good for Billy Hamilton, who isn't as good a center fielder as Cain, but is still good out there and gives them a speed element that was sorely lacking last year.
Number 1 starter Danny Duffy had a rough season last year. His ERA was up around 5.00 and he gave up 23 home runs. But he is still the best starting pitcher the Royals have. How bad is the Royals rotation? Homer Bailey, who went 1-14 for the Reds last season, is projected as their No. 5 starter. And his competition for that spot doesn't really blow you away (although they also have Ian Kennedy and are putting him in the bullpen for some reason). Brad Boxberger closed in Arizona last year, but will set up Wily Peralta in Kansas City this season. Either way, there probably won't be too many save situations for either one of them,
Projected Lineup: Billy Hamilton-CF, Whit Merrifield-2B, Alex Gordon-LF, Ryan O'Hearn-1B, Jorge Soler-RF, Adalberto Mondesi-SS, Martin Maldonado-C, Hunter Dozier-DH, Chris Owings-3B
Projected Rotation: Danny Duffy, Brad Keller, Jakob Junis, Jorge Lopez, Homer Bailey
Closer: Wily Peralta
Projected Rotation: 65-97
Tuesday, March 19, 2019
MLB 2019 (AL West)
Another baseball season is about to begin! The A's and Mariners are getting a head start on the 2019 season, playing two games in Tokyo this week before everyone else gets started next Thursday. And Ichiro is on Seattle's active roster for this series, likely marking the end of his Hall of Fame-career. So, get up early if for no other reason than to watch Ichiro for the last time.
And since the season is about to start, I figured this was probably time for Part I of my annual baseball preview. I normally start with the AL East, but with two AL West teams getting the season started, I figured it made more sense to start there instead this year.
It should be the same old story in the AL West this season. The Astros aren't as good as they were in either of the last two years. But they're still head-and-shoulders above the other four teams in the division, and they should win it running away again. The Mariners and Rangers are both rebuilding. The Angels and A's, though, should be in the mix for the second wild card.
1. Houston Astros: Dallas Keuchel is still a free agent, and might actually return to Houston after spending all winter assuming the Astros were moving on. Let's, for the sake of argument, assume that they have, though. It's not like their rotation will struggle without him. Not when they've got Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole in the top two spots, and Wade Miley as Keuchel's replacement.
In fact, I'd argue that the Astros' biggest loss is Marwin Gonzalez. That guy can play anywhere, and that versatility really came in handy. They replaced him with Michael Brantley, who's a tremendous hitter and gives them the lefty bat they needed. But he's also way too injury-prone. In Cleveland, he was either an MVP candidate or spent the entire season on the DL (I don't care that they renamed it, I'm still going to call it that). Houston's starting lineup is really good. The Astros' challenge will be to overcome injuries if their are any. Especially to Altuve, Correa, Springer or Bregman. Regardless, they really only need to worry about those guys being healthy in October.
Projected Lineup: George Springer-CF, Alex Bregman-3B, Jose Altuve-2B, Carlos Correa-SS, Michael Brantley-LF, Yuli Gurriel-1B, Josh Reddick-RF, Tyler White-DH, Robinson Chirinos-C
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Collin McHugh, Wade Miley, Brad Peacock
Closer: Roberto Osuna
Projected Rotation: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Collin McHugh, Wade Miley, Brad Peacock
Closer: Roberto Osuna
Projected Record: 95-67
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Well, Mike Trout sure got paid, didn't he? The Angels were smart to not even give him the chance at being a free agent and potentially pulling a Harper. Yes, they've gotten burned on long-term contracts before. But Mike Trout is the face of the franchise and the best player in baseball. They had no choice but to keep him around.
One of those albatross contracts belongs to Albert Pujols, who's been pushed into a part-time role. They signed Justin Bour to play first base, which means Albert's at-bats will come as the DH. At least until Shohei Ohtani comes back. Ohtani can't pitch this year while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, which is actually somewhat good news since it means they'll have his bat all year once he returns to the lineup in May. If they can weather that first month without him, their rebuilt pitching staff (which, granted, isn't as good without Ohtani) could keep them in the wild card hunt. And you know they have the finances to enhance their rotation at the Trade Deadline. If all goes well in Anaheim this year, I can see them getting the second wild card and Trout playing in his fourth career playoff game. Although, another typical, disappointing, 78-84 season where Trout puts up MVP-type numbers is also entirely possible.
Projected Lineup: Zack Cozart-3B, Andrelton Simmons-SS, Mike Trout-CF, Justin Upton-LF, Albert Pujols-DH, Justin Bour-1B, Kole Calhoun-RF, Jonathan Lucroy-C, David Fletcher-2B
Projected Rotation: Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill, Jaime Barria
Closer: Chad Allen
Projected Record: 84-78
3. Oakland Athletics: Last year, we knew who four of the AL playoff teams would be before the season started. Nobody could've expected that it would be the A's who'd join them. Yet there I was at Yankee Stadium in October watching Oakland play in the Wild Card Game. And they could easily go back. Because unlike last year, they've got guys you've actually heard of this season!
I'd even venture to say that the team Oakland took to Japan is better than the one that took the field in the Wild Card Game. They lost Jed Lowrie, but replaced him with Jurickson Profar, who'll finally get the chance to play everyday. And Matt Chapman is an MVP candidate. Plus, you can count on 30 homers and 100 RBIs from Mr. .247 himself, Khris Davis. Consider, too, that last year they made the playoffs despite not really having any pitching. If they can get anything, and I mean anything at all, out of their starters, they'll be in tremendous shape. Because they've got a tremendous bullpen anchored by lights-out closer Blake Treinen.
Projected Lineup: Ramon Laureano-CF, Jurickson Profar-2B, Matt Olson-1B, Matt Chapman-3B, Khris Davis-DH, Stephen Piscotty-RF, Robbie Grossman-LF, Josh Phegley-C, Marcus Semien-SS
Projected Rotation: Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, Brett Anderson, Frankine Montas, Aaron Brooks
Closer: Blake Treinen
Projected Record: 82-80
4. Seattle Mariners: Seattle's one of the most interesting teams in all of baseball. For the last few years, the Mariners were trying desperately to end their playoff drought with no success. So what do they do heading into this season? Trade their highest-paid player (Robinson Cano), closer (Edwin Diaz) and best starting pitcher (James Paxton) and let their best hitter (Nelson Cruz) walk as a free agent. But they aren't exactly waiving the white flag, since they got Jay Bruce in the Cano trade and also added Edwin Encarnacion as the new DH.
What the Mariners are trying to do (contend and rebuild at the same time) isn't easy. And, frankly, it's probably not going to work. Their Opening Day lineup looks nothing it did last year. Although, they finally realized the Dee Gordon-in-center field thing was a dumb idea (even if Cano getting a PED suspension forced their hand there). Ichiro's stay on the roster is only a token appearance so he can end his career in Japan, and Felix Hernandez not only won't start on Opening Day for the first time in forever, he'll start the season as the No. 4 starter. (BTW, they have two starting pitchers with single-digit numbers, which is beyond unacceptable.) So, the transition has already started in earnest. They're still good enough to be competitive. But good enough to end the longest postseason drought in pro sports? Unfortunately, probably not.
Projected Lineup: Dee Gordon-2B, Tim Beckham-SS, Kyle Seager-3B, Edwin Encarnacion-DH, Mitch Haniger-RF, Ryon Healy-1B, Jay Bruce-LF, Omar Narvaez-C, Mallex Smith-CF
Projected Rotation: Marco Gonzalez, Yusei Kikuchi, Mike Leake, Felix Hernandez, Wade LeBlanc
Closer: Hunter Strickland
Projected Record: 72-90
5. Texas Rangers: Adrian Beltre retired, and so ended any reason to watch the Texas Rangers. This is the final season before they open their new ballpark, and it's obvious they'd rather contend next year in the new place. Texas will be one of the worst teams in the American League this season. They're not on Orioles/Royals/Tigers level. But fans in Arlington are probably already counting down the days until Cowboys training camp (if not Cowboys OTAs and mini camp).
Reasons to watch the Rangers? (I'm having trouble coming up with some for both the baseball and hockey teams.) Well, they play in a bandbox, so even without Beltre, they'll do plenty of hitting. Although, it'll be up to Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo and Rougned Odor to do most of the heavy-lifting, and they're not exactly Adrian Beltre at the plate. Pitching-wise, this team is a mess, though. They signed Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller, traded for Drew Smyly and brought back Edinson Volquez after a year in Triple A to anchor the rotation. Not exactly a who's who of Major League starting pitchers. From what I gather, closer Jose Leclerc is perfectly serviceable, but I just don't know how many save opportunities he's gonna get. I see a lot of 11-9 and 8-6 losses ahead for the Rangers.
Projected Lineup: Delino DeShields-CF, Shin-Soo Choo-DH, Elvis Andrus-SS, Ronald Guzman-1B, Joey Gallo-LF, Rougned Odor-2B, Asdrubal Cabrera-3B, Nomar Mazara-RF, Jeff Mathis-C
Projected Rotation: Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Drew Smyly, Edinson Volquez, Shelby Miller
Closer: Jose Leclerc
Projected Record: 70-92
While the AL West will continue to be Houston's domain, the Astros might not be the only team in the division that ends up in the playoffs. The Angels and A's should both hang around the wild card race for most of the season. In fact, their only competition might come from each other and the Twins. And, who knows? If all goes well for them and Houston struggles, the division title might be attainable after all. I wouldn't bet against the Astros if I was you, though.
Monday, March 18, 2019
The 2019 Joe Bracket (Women)
With the women's tournament, the NCAA spells pretty much everything out for us. They release top-16 seed lists during the season and now, with the Selection Show coming up on Monday night, they announced their list of the seven teams under consideration for the final four at-large bids. (That list was eight, but Princeton won the Ivy League's auto bid.) Four will get in, three will not.
Perhaps the most surprising name on that list was Tennessee. The first NCAA Tournament was held in 1982, and the Lady Vols have been in all 37 of them. The fact that we're even discussing them as a bubble team shows just how far this once-great program has fallen. They're probably safely in the field. Regardless, this season has to rank as a low point in the glorious history of Tennessee women's basketball.
The SEC champions, Mississippi State, meanwhile, look good to snag the fourth 1-seed behind Baylor (the presumed No. 1 overall), UConn and Notre Dame. It really came down to Mississippi State and Louisville. One won its conference tournament. The other didn't (and Louisville got crushed by Notre Dame in the ACC final).
Of course, there was very little difference between the fourth 1 and the top 2. Because that fourth 1-seed was getting shipped out to Portland, where the No. 2 seed will be Oregon. And the Ducks will have the dual advantages of the home crowd and significantly less travel. The No. 5 overall seed, meanwhile, (since they can't play Baylor) has to play UConn in Albany.
Much like the men's tournament, the top eight teams very clearly distinguished themselves. There shouldn't be any surprise over the 1's, and the other 2's will almost certainly be Stanford and Iowa. Really it's which 2 seed gets placed in which region that's the question. (Also, a note about the 1's. Baylor has to fly wherever they're going for the Regionals and Notre Dame can bus to Chicago, so that's why Baylor goes to Greensboro.)
One of the things that I find fascinating about this year's women's tournament, though, is how good the mid-major teams are. Gonzaga lost to BYU in the WCC final and will probably get an at-large bid. But we're also looking at potential at-larges for the regular season champs in the Missouri Valley (Drake) and Summit (South Dakota). And the MAC could very easily end up with three teams in the tournament if Ohio gets one of those last four bids.
I do think Ohio will be in the field, likely as the last team in. I'm giving that fourth bubble spot to Indiana. The Hoosiers' resume is simply too good to ignore. Five top-50 wins, including one over Iowa and one over Michigan State. Central Florida, meanwhile, shouldn't even be up for debate. They have six losses all year, and three of them are to UConn! (You'll notice that I gave them a 10-seed and the other three 11's.)
So, there really shouldn't be too many surprises when the bracket is revealed. Baylor will be the No. 1 overall seed, marking the first time since 2013 that it's not UConn (coincidentally, Baylor was also the No. 1 overall seed that year). This is also the first time since 2013 that nobody goes into the tournament undefeated.
What all that means is we've got a wide-open tournament. There are a handful of teams capable of winning a National Championship, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cinderella or two crash the ball. First there needs to be a field, though. And for that, here's what I've got...
GREENSBORO
16-Abilene Christian at 1-Baylor (1), 8-Clemson vs. 9-Michigan State
13-UC Davis at 4-Oregon State, 5-Missouri vs. 12-Boise State
14-Radford at 3-NC State, 6-Kentucky vs. 11-Ohio
15-Maine at 2-Iowa, 7-Drake vs. 10-Central Florida
PORTLAND
16-Southern at 1-Mississippi State (4), 8-California vs. 9-Central Michigan
13-Belmont at 4-Iowa State, 5-Florida State vs. 12-Florida Gulf Coast
14-Little Rock at 3-Miami, 6-South Dakota State vs. 11-Rice
15-Portland State at 2-Oregon, 7-Rutgers vs. 10-Princeton
ALBANY
16-Robert Morris at 1-Connecticut (2), 8-South Dakota vs. 9-Kansas State
13-Fordham at 4-Syracuse, 5-Arizona State vs. 12-Quinnipiac
14-Bucknell at 3-Maryland, 6-UCLA vs. 11-Tennessee
15-Mercer at 2-Louisville, 7-BYU vs. 10-Buffalo
CHICAGO
16-Bethune-Cookman at 1-Notre Dame (3), 8-Michigan vs. 9-Texas
13-Wright State at 4-Texas A&M, 5-Marquette vs. 12-Missouri State
3-South Carolina vs. 14-New Mexico State, 6-DePaul vs. 11-Indiana (*in Charlotte because South Carolina is hosting the men's tournament)
15-Towson at 2-Stanford, 7-Gonzaga vs. 10-North Carolina
Final Four: Greensboro vs. Portland, Albany vs. Chicago
Conference Breakdown: ACC (8), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), SEC (6), Big 12 (4), MAC (3), American (2), Big East (2), Missouri Valley (2), Summit (2), West Coast (2)
Perhaps the most surprising name on that list was Tennessee. The first NCAA Tournament was held in 1982, and the Lady Vols have been in all 37 of them. The fact that we're even discussing them as a bubble team shows just how far this once-great program has fallen. They're probably safely in the field. Regardless, this season has to rank as a low point in the glorious history of Tennessee women's basketball.
The SEC champions, Mississippi State, meanwhile, look good to snag the fourth 1-seed behind Baylor (the presumed No. 1 overall), UConn and Notre Dame. It really came down to Mississippi State and Louisville. One won its conference tournament. The other didn't (and Louisville got crushed by Notre Dame in the ACC final).
Of course, there was very little difference between the fourth 1 and the top 2. Because that fourth 1-seed was getting shipped out to Portland, where the No. 2 seed will be Oregon. And the Ducks will have the dual advantages of the home crowd and significantly less travel. The No. 5 overall seed, meanwhile, (since they can't play Baylor) has to play UConn in Albany.
Much like the men's tournament, the top eight teams very clearly distinguished themselves. There shouldn't be any surprise over the 1's, and the other 2's will almost certainly be Stanford and Iowa. Really it's which 2 seed gets placed in which region that's the question. (Also, a note about the 1's. Baylor has to fly wherever they're going for the Regionals and Notre Dame can bus to Chicago, so that's why Baylor goes to Greensboro.)
One of the things that I find fascinating about this year's women's tournament, though, is how good the mid-major teams are. Gonzaga lost to BYU in the WCC final and will probably get an at-large bid. But we're also looking at potential at-larges for the regular season champs in the Missouri Valley (Drake) and Summit (South Dakota). And the MAC could very easily end up with three teams in the tournament if Ohio gets one of those last four bids.
I do think Ohio will be in the field, likely as the last team in. I'm giving that fourth bubble spot to Indiana. The Hoosiers' resume is simply too good to ignore. Five top-50 wins, including one over Iowa and one over Michigan State. Central Florida, meanwhile, shouldn't even be up for debate. They have six losses all year, and three of them are to UConn! (You'll notice that I gave them a 10-seed and the other three 11's.)
So, there really shouldn't be too many surprises when the bracket is revealed. Baylor will be the No. 1 overall seed, marking the first time since 2013 that it's not UConn (coincidentally, Baylor was also the No. 1 overall seed that year). This is also the first time since 2013 that nobody goes into the tournament undefeated.
What all that means is we've got a wide-open tournament. There are a handful of teams capable of winning a National Championship, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cinderella or two crash the ball. First there needs to be a field, though. And for that, here's what I've got...
GREENSBORO
16-Abilene Christian at 1-Baylor (1), 8-Clemson vs. 9-Michigan State
13-UC Davis at 4-Oregon State, 5-Missouri vs. 12-Boise State
14-Radford at 3-NC State, 6-Kentucky vs. 11-Ohio
15-Maine at 2-Iowa, 7-Drake vs. 10-Central Florida
PORTLAND
16-Southern at 1-Mississippi State (4), 8-California vs. 9-Central Michigan
13-Belmont at 4-Iowa State, 5-Florida State vs. 12-Florida Gulf Coast
14-Little Rock at 3-Miami, 6-South Dakota State vs. 11-Rice
15-Portland State at 2-Oregon, 7-Rutgers vs. 10-Princeton
ALBANY
16-Robert Morris at 1-Connecticut (2), 8-South Dakota vs. 9-Kansas State
13-Fordham at 4-Syracuse, 5-Arizona State vs. 12-Quinnipiac
14-Bucknell at 3-Maryland, 6-UCLA vs. 11-Tennessee
15-Mercer at 2-Louisville, 7-BYU vs. 10-Buffalo
CHICAGO
16-Bethune-Cookman at 1-Notre Dame (3), 8-Michigan vs. 9-Texas
13-Wright State at 4-Texas A&M, 5-Marquette vs. 12-Missouri State
3-South Carolina vs. 14-New Mexico State, 6-DePaul vs. 11-Indiana (*in Charlotte because South Carolina is hosting the men's tournament)
15-Towson at 2-Stanford, 7-Gonzaga vs. 10-North Carolina
Final Four: Greensboro vs. Portland, Albany vs. Chicago
Conference Breakdown: ACC (8), Big Ten (6), Pac-12 (6), SEC (6), Big 12 (4), MAC (3), American (2), Big East (2), Missouri Valley (2), Summit (2), West Coast (2)
Sunday, March 17, 2019
The 2019 Joe Bracket (Men)
As we get set to find out the official bracket for March Madness, one thing is clear. The top eight teams in the country are all capable of winning the National Championship (well, maybe not Virginia). I don't think there's any question what eight teams will end up on the 1- and 2-lines. But who'll get a 1 and who'll get a 2 is still up for debate.
Duke probably locked up the No. 1 overall seed with its ACC title. They've got the best player in college basketball, and three of their five losses came without him. But when Zion plays, like he did in the ACC Tournament, they're the best team out there. Period.
Some people are saying the ACC could become the second conference in history to get three 1-seeds in the same season. I think they only get two, though. Because I don't see how you don't give one to Tennessee. That SEC semi against Kentucky was for a 1-seed in my opinion. And, despite their loss in the WCC final, you can't tell me Gonzaga isn't one of the four best teams. They're the only good team in the West anyway, so they're going out there regardless. So it just makes more sense to make them 1 instead of the 2.
Just like I had Kentucky-Tennessee as a battle for a 1-seed, I thought the same thing about the Duke-North Carolina game. Duke won, so the Tar Heels drop to a 2 (although, I think they're both better than Virginia). Likewise, whichever Michigan team wins the Big Ten will have no bearing on their seeds. They're both a 2 either way. The only thing that might be decided by that Big Ten championship game is what region they're in (somebody has to go out west and play Gonzaga).
Meanwhile, the bubble teams can thank Oregon, Saint Mary's and whoever wins the Atlantic 10 for taking three bids away. Nevada's loss didn't make a difference one way or the other because Utah State ended up winning the Mountain West, and both teams were probably already in.
Which means I don't see a way Belmont gets into the field. I'm not even sure they would've gotten in had those three bids been available. Don't get me wrong, I think Belmont deserves to be in the Tournament. But recent history hasn't been kind to mid-majors, so I don't see where this year would be any different.
Although, the shrinking bubble is a good thing in a way, too. Because it's going to keep three teams that are less deserving than Belmont out. I'm sorry, but a 16-16 Texas team shouldn't even be in the conversation! The number of losses is glaring enough, but they're a .500 team! I don't care who they've beaten (which is why they're even on the board)! If they get in and lose in the first round, they'll finish the season with a losing record. That should only happen if you win your conference tournament and get an auto bid.
So, Texas is out. And, unfortunately, so is Temple. I had the Owls in until Oregon stole their bid. That also bumped Arizona State from an outright 11 seed to Dayton. (No potential bid stealers in action on Sunday, so my at-large field is set.)
This year was really all about three conferences. The ACC, SEC and Big Ten are going to account for seven of the top eight seeds, and all but two of my top 16 overall seeds consist of those three conferences plus the Big 12 (Houston is the other one).
Overall, my conference breakdown looks like this: ACC-8, Big Ten-8, Big 12-7, SEC-7, Big East-4, American-3, Pac-12-3, Atlantic 10-2, Mountain West-2, West Coast-2. My Final Four pairings are East vs. West and South vs. Midwest. As for my whole bracket, here you go...
EAST (Washington)
Columbia: 1-Duke (1) vs. 16-Iona/Northern Kentucky, 8-Iowa vs. 9-Oklahoma
Hartford: 4-Auburn vs. 13-Northeastern, 5-Villanova vs. 12-Murray State
Tulsa: 3-Kansas vs. 14-Montana, 6-Buffalo vs. 11-Oregon
Des Moines: 2-Michigan vs. 15-Bradley, 7-Louisville vs. 10-Central Florida
WEST (Anaheim)
Salt Lake City: 1-Gonzaga (4) vs. 16-Abilene Christian, 8-Mississippi State vs. 9-Utah State
Hartford: 4-Florida State vs. 13-Vermont, 5-Iowa State vs. 12-St. Bonaventure
Jacksonville: 3-LSU vs. 14-Georgia State, 6-Cincinnati vs. 11-St. John's/Ohio State
Des Moines: 2-Michigan State vs. 15-Colgate, 7-Wofford vs. 10-Syracuse
SOUTH (Louisville)
Jacksonville: 1-Tennessee (2) vs. 16-North Dakota State/North Carolina Central, 8-Washington vs. 9-Minnesota
San Jose: 4-Kansas State vs. 13-Old Dominion, 5-Virginia Tech vs. 12-Saint Mary's
Tulsa: 3-Purdue vs. 14-Harvard, 6-Marquette vs. 11-TCU/Arizona State
Columbia: 2-North Carolina vs. 15-Gardner-Webb, 7-Nevada vs. 10-Mississippi
MIDWEST (Kansas City)
Columbus: 1-Virginia (3) vs. 16-Fairleigh Dickinson, 8-Baylor vs. 9-Florida
San Jose: 4-Houston vs. 13-Liberty, 5-Wisconsin vs. 12-New Mexico State
Salt Lake City: 3-Texas Tech vs. 14-UC Irvine, 6-Maryland vs. 11-NC State
Columbus: 2-Kentucky vs. 15-Prairie View, 7-Seton Hall vs. 10-VCU
Duke probably locked up the No. 1 overall seed with its ACC title. They've got the best player in college basketball, and three of their five losses came without him. But when Zion plays, like he did in the ACC Tournament, they're the best team out there. Period.
Some people are saying the ACC could become the second conference in history to get three 1-seeds in the same season. I think they only get two, though. Because I don't see how you don't give one to Tennessee. That SEC semi against Kentucky was for a 1-seed in my opinion. And, despite their loss in the WCC final, you can't tell me Gonzaga isn't one of the four best teams. They're the only good team in the West anyway, so they're going out there regardless. So it just makes more sense to make them 1 instead of the 2.
Just like I had Kentucky-Tennessee as a battle for a 1-seed, I thought the same thing about the Duke-North Carolina game. Duke won, so the Tar Heels drop to a 2 (although, I think they're both better than Virginia). Likewise, whichever Michigan team wins the Big Ten will have no bearing on their seeds. They're both a 2 either way. The only thing that might be decided by that Big Ten championship game is what region they're in (somebody has to go out west and play Gonzaga).
Meanwhile, the bubble teams can thank Oregon, Saint Mary's and whoever wins the Atlantic 10 for taking three bids away. Nevada's loss didn't make a difference one way or the other because Utah State ended up winning the Mountain West, and both teams were probably already in.
Which means I don't see a way Belmont gets into the field. I'm not even sure they would've gotten in had those three bids been available. Don't get me wrong, I think Belmont deserves to be in the Tournament. But recent history hasn't been kind to mid-majors, so I don't see where this year would be any different.
Although, the shrinking bubble is a good thing in a way, too. Because it's going to keep three teams that are less deserving than Belmont out. I'm sorry, but a 16-16 Texas team shouldn't even be in the conversation! The number of losses is glaring enough, but they're a .500 team! I don't care who they've beaten (which is why they're even on the board)! If they get in and lose in the first round, they'll finish the season with a losing record. That should only happen if you win your conference tournament and get an auto bid.
So, Texas is out. And, unfortunately, so is Temple. I had the Owls in until Oregon stole their bid. That also bumped Arizona State from an outright 11 seed to Dayton. (No potential bid stealers in action on Sunday, so my at-large field is set.)
This year was really all about three conferences. The ACC, SEC and Big Ten are going to account for seven of the top eight seeds, and all but two of my top 16 overall seeds consist of those three conferences plus the Big 12 (Houston is the other one).
Overall, my conference breakdown looks like this: ACC-8, Big Ten-8, Big 12-7, SEC-7, Big East-4, American-3, Pac-12-3, Atlantic 10-2, Mountain West-2, West Coast-2. My Final Four pairings are East vs. West and South vs. Midwest. As for my whole bracket, here you go...
EAST (Washington)
Columbia: 1-Duke (1) vs. 16-Iona/Northern Kentucky, 8-Iowa vs. 9-Oklahoma
Hartford: 4-Auburn vs. 13-Northeastern, 5-Villanova vs. 12-Murray State
Tulsa: 3-Kansas vs. 14-Montana, 6-Buffalo vs. 11-Oregon
Des Moines: 2-Michigan vs. 15-Bradley, 7-Louisville vs. 10-Central Florida
WEST (Anaheim)
Salt Lake City: 1-Gonzaga (4) vs. 16-Abilene Christian, 8-Mississippi State vs. 9-Utah State
Hartford: 4-Florida State vs. 13-Vermont, 5-Iowa State vs. 12-St. Bonaventure
Jacksonville: 3-LSU vs. 14-Georgia State, 6-Cincinnati vs. 11-St. John's/Ohio State
Des Moines: 2-Michigan State vs. 15-Colgate, 7-Wofford vs. 10-Syracuse
SOUTH (Louisville)
Jacksonville: 1-Tennessee (2) vs. 16-North Dakota State/North Carolina Central, 8-Washington vs. 9-Minnesota
San Jose: 4-Kansas State vs. 13-Old Dominion, 5-Virginia Tech vs. 12-Saint Mary's
Tulsa: 3-Purdue vs. 14-Harvard, 6-Marquette vs. 11-TCU/Arizona State
Columbia: 2-North Carolina vs. 15-Gardner-Webb, 7-Nevada vs. 10-Mississippi
MIDWEST (Kansas City)
Columbus: 1-Virginia (3) vs. 16-Fairleigh Dickinson, 8-Baylor vs. 9-Florida
San Jose: 4-Houston vs. 13-Liberty, 5-Wisconsin vs. 12-New Mexico State
Salt Lake City: 3-Texas Tech vs. 14-UC Irvine, 6-Maryland vs. 11-NC State
Columbus: 2-Kentucky vs. 15-Prairie View, 7-Seton Hall vs. 10-VCU
Thursday, March 14, 2019
Changing the Game for the Better
Well, that was a surprise. We're just two weeks away from the start of baseball season, yet they announced several major changes that are going to go into effect this season...with a few more rules changes set for next year. The surprise comes from how major some of them are and how late into Spring Training it is. It's also unusual that these are collectively-bargained things that are being done in the middle of the CBA. But make no mistake, these rules changes are all good.
Shorter Inning Breaks: Ever since Rob Manfred became commissioner, he's been obsessed with game length. He put in those stupid clocks and got rid of the intentional walk (that 25 seconds once every few games was really killing baseball!), although his new baby, the pitch clock, has been tabled until after the CBA expires in 2021. Of course, the easiest way to make games faster is to not have those ridiculously long commercial breaks between innings. Which is something that has finally been realized and addressed.
Trade Deadline: No more August trades! The two trade deadline thing was downright confusing, and the August one really took some of the luster out of the official trade deadline on July 31. Now teams have to decide if they're contenders or not. No more waiting a couple more weeks to see if you're still hanging around the wild card race. It should lead to more action at the actual deadline. I would've liked to have seen some sort of compromise date in between the two (say August 15), but I can make my peace with July 31 being the only deadline. And the rule about having to be on the roster before September 1 in order to qualify for postseason isn't changed, so they can still add players in August. They just can't trade for them.
All*Star Voting: We'll see how this one works, but I like the concept. Basically they're preventing fans of certain teams from stuffing the ballot box and making it so that a hot April doesn't carry a guy to an undeserved All*Star start. Fans will, hopefully, make more informed decisions. The campaigning element is the best part, though. It came about because of how successful the social media campaigning for the Final Vote has been in recent years, so why not expand it to the regular All*Star Game. There are other elements of this that have to be worked out (How much time between the end of the regular voting and Election Day? When will we find out who won?) But the idea is a good one. And the bonuses for the players who make it to Election Day are a great idea, too.
All*Star Extra Innings: This is probably the only new rule being implemented this year that I'm not completely on board with. The international tiebreaker has no place in Major League Baseball, even if the All*Star Game is just an exhibition. I understand they want to test it out and they don't want another Yankee Stadium situation. But it still seems gimmicky. Maybe let them play another inning or two then start the tiebreaker in the 12th?
Home Run Derby: They're trying to incentivize the game's biggest stars to actually participate in the Home Run Derby. Plain and simple. Mike Trout has never done it. Aaron Judge has done it once. Last year, they had like three non-All*Stars in it (and seven of the eight guys were from the National League). How do you make the players want to do it? Give $1 million to the winner.
Mound Visits: When they put these in last year, they came up with six as the maximum. I'm not sure where that number came from, but what they found was that it was too many. Most teams only used three or four per game (if that). And pitchers still probably think five is too many.
What I'm really excited about, though, are the rules changes that they've agreed upon for 2020.
Roster Size: Starting next year, active rosters will be increased to 26, with a maximum number of pitchers (they didn't announce it, but it'll probably be 13). Which means teams will no longer be able to have a two-man bench because they're carrying eight relievers. It also means you can't send down a utility guy and replace him with a reliever because you need another arm in the bullpen.
After the abundance of position players pitching last season, they're doing something about that, too. They can only pitch in extra innings or at the end of blowouts. Unless, of course, they're Shoehi Ohtani.
And they're finally doing something about the 40-man September roster! This has long been a rule that drove so many people crazy. Why were you allowed to randomly have 15 more guys for the most important games? Why were some teams playing with 40 and others with 27? Why was the team that's out of it treating it like a Spring Training game when it affected the pennant race? Rosters will be still be expanded in September, but only to 28. That's a reasonable number. You can still add a third catcher without having 13 relievers or your entire Triple A roster just because you can.
Pitching Minimums: Love this more than any of the other changes! Yes, it means the death of the LOOGY. But the number of pitching changes late in games had gotten out of control! Managers felt the need to use a different matchup reliever for every hitter (thus resulting in them running out of pitchers and needing to use position players). The half-innings with three pitching changes where none of them faces more than two batters absolutely kills the pace of any game (that might be why they take so long, too).
Managers will have to completely change their bullpen strategies, and we'll likely see bullpens constructed differently, too. But the excruciating parade of relievers (in every game!) will finally become a thing of the past. Maybe the result will be teams actually seeing the value of quality starting pitching. And maybe games will actually have pace again!
Injured List: (Still not crazy about renaming the DL, by the way.) You've gotta give them credit for trying. But too many teams figured out a way to manipulate the 10-day DL to get an extra reliever on the roster. The fifth starter would suddenly come up with a mysterious ailment when they conveniently could skip him in the rotation, then he'd be all healed from his "injury" when it came time for him to start again.
Same thing with Minor League assignments. They're going from 10 to 15 days, too. Again, it's not designed to make sure you have fresh arms delivered to the bullpen daily. Now, if you want to send a guy down, you'd better be sure. Because you're not getting him back for two weeks. (I'm sure the existing injury provision for recalls will still apply.)
All of these rule changes represent a huge step forward for the game of baseball. They addressed some issues that were a problem with everybody. There's still plenty of work to do (the players are still incredibly unhappy about what's happened to free agents the last two offseasons, and the Kris Bryants and Gleyber Torreses of the world starting the season in the Minors so that they don't accrue service time is still a major issue). But now that they've gotten this stuff out of the way, they can move on to those bigger-picture items. And they're going to start talking before the CBA expires after the 2021 season. Which is perhaps the best news of all.
Shorter Inning Breaks: Ever since Rob Manfred became commissioner, he's been obsessed with game length. He put in those stupid clocks and got rid of the intentional walk (that 25 seconds once every few games was really killing baseball!), although his new baby, the pitch clock, has been tabled until after the CBA expires in 2021. Of course, the easiest way to make games faster is to not have those ridiculously long commercial breaks between innings. Which is something that has finally been realized and addressed.
Trade Deadline: No more August trades! The two trade deadline thing was downright confusing, and the August one really took some of the luster out of the official trade deadline on July 31. Now teams have to decide if they're contenders or not. No more waiting a couple more weeks to see if you're still hanging around the wild card race. It should lead to more action at the actual deadline. I would've liked to have seen some sort of compromise date in between the two (say August 15), but I can make my peace with July 31 being the only deadline. And the rule about having to be on the roster before September 1 in order to qualify for postseason isn't changed, so they can still add players in August. They just can't trade for them.
All*Star Voting: We'll see how this one works, but I like the concept. Basically they're preventing fans of certain teams from stuffing the ballot box and making it so that a hot April doesn't carry a guy to an undeserved All*Star start. Fans will, hopefully, make more informed decisions. The campaigning element is the best part, though. It came about because of how successful the social media campaigning for the Final Vote has been in recent years, so why not expand it to the regular All*Star Game. There are other elements of this that have to be worked out (How much time between the end of the regular voting and Election Day? When will we find out who won?) But the idea is a good one. And the bonuses for the players who make it to Election Day are a great idea, too.
All*Star Extra Innings: This is probably the only new rule being implemented this year that I'm not completely on board with. The international tiebreaker has no place in Major League Baseball, even if the All*Star Game is just an exhibition. I understand they want to test it out and they don't want another Yankee Stadium situation. But it still seems gimmicky. Maybe let them play another inning or two then start the tiebreaker in the 12th?
Home Run Derby: They're trying to incentivize the game's biggest stars to actually participate in the Home Run Derby. Plain and simple. Mike Trout has never done it. Aaron Judge has done it once. Last year, they had like three non-All*Stars in it (and seven of the eight guys were from the National League). How do you make the players want to do it? Give $1 million to the winner.
Mound Visits: When they put these in last year, they came up with six as the maximum. I'm not sure where that number came from, but what they found was that it was too many. Most teams only used three or four per game (if that). And pitchers still probably think five is too many.
What I'm really excited about, though, are the rules changes that they've agreed upon for 2020.
Roster Size: Starting next year, active rosters will be increased to 26, with a maximum number of pitchers (they didn't announce it, but it'll probably be 13). Which means teams will no longer be able to have a two-man bench because they're carrying eight relievers. It also means you can't send down a utility guy and replace him with a reliever because you need another arm in the bullpen.
After the abundance of position players pitching last season, they're doing something about that, too. They can only pitch in extra innings or at the end of blowouts. Unless, of course, they're Shoehi Ohtani.
And they're finally doing something about the 40-man September roster! This has long been a rule that drove so many people crazy. Why were you allowed to randomly have 15 more guys for the most important games? Why were some teams playing with 40 and others with 27? Why was the team that's out of it treating it like a Spring Training game when it affected the pennant race? Rosters will be still be expanded in September, but only to 28. That's a reasonable number. You can still add a third catcher without having 13 relievers or your entire Triple A roster just because you can.
Pitching Minimums: Love this more than any of the other changes! Yes, it means the death of the LOOGY. But the number of pitching changes late in games had gotten out of control! Managers felt the need to use a different matchup reliever for every hitter (thus resulting in them running out of pitchers and needing to use position players). The half-innings with three pitching changes where none of them faces more than two batters absolutely kills the pace of any game (that might be why they take so long, too).
Managers will have to completely change their bullpen strategies, and we'll likely see bullpens constructed differently, too. But the excruciating parade of relievers (in every game!) will finally become a thing of the past. Maybe the result will be teams actually seeing the value of quality starting pitching. And maybe games will actually have pace again!
Injured List: (Still not crazy about renaming the DL, by the way.) You've gotta give them credit for trying. But too many teams figured out a way to manipulate the 10-day DL to get an extra reliever on the roster. The fifth starter would suddenly come up with a mysterious ailment when they conveniently could skip him in the rotation, then he'd be all healed from his "injury" when it came time for him to start again.
Same thing with Minor League assignments. They're going from 10 to 15 days, too. Again, it's not designed to make sure you have fresh arms delivered to the bullpen daily. Now, if you want to send a guy down, you'd better be sure. Because you're not getting him back for two weeks. (I'm sure the existing injury provision for recalls will still apply.)
All of these rule changes represent a huge step forward for the game of baseball. They addressed some issues that were a problem with everybody. There's still plenty of work to do (the players are still incredibly unhappy about what's happened to free agents the last two offseasons, and the Kris Bryants and Gleyber Torreses of the world starting the season in the Minors so that they don't accrue service time is still a major issue). But now that they've gotten this stuff out of the way, they can move on to those bigger-picture items. And they're going to start talking before the CBA expires after the 2021 season. Which is perhaps the best news of all.
Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Holding Fans Accountable For Idiocy
Where on game tickets does it say you're allowed to engage in criminal behavior? I just got my Yankees tickets for this season, and I can't find it anywhere! Wait...what's that? It doesn't say that anywhere?! Interesting!
Yet twice in two days, in two different countries, we had fans attacking players in the middle of the game. First in England, a Birmingham City fan named Paul Mitchell ran out onto the field and punched Aston Villa's Jack Grealish in the side of the head. Had that happened on the street, Mitchell would've been arrested and charged with assault. Then last night in Utah, Jazz fan Shane Keisel and his girlfriend got into a verbal altercation with the Thunder's Russell Westbrook. How did it start? Because Keisel made racist comments directed at Westbrook.
Both teams were quick in their response. Mitchell was banned from attending any (and I'll use the British term here) "football match" in the UK (which, I'm assuming doesn't just mean England) and fined 350 pounds. He was also sentenced to 14 weeks in jail. After reviewing the incident (which wasn't the first time Utah fans made racial taunts towards Westbrook), the Jazz permanently banned Keisel from the arena.
Mitchell at least showed some remorse. Whether it was authentic or just a legal ploy, he at least apologized for his actions. Keisel? Not so much. He didn't just try to justify it, he tried to deny saying anything inappropriate. This despite the fact that there was clear video evidence to the contrary and the fact that he'd been warned by the Jazz before.
Sadly, these are just the two most recent incidents of despicable fan behavior. There was a soccer game in England several years ago where a fan threw a firework on the field and hit the goalie with it. A FREAKING FIREWORK!! How was he even able to bring it into the stadium?! And, how can anyone ever forget the fan that was able to get close enough to stab Monica Seles in the back, costing her two years in the prime of her career?
There's nothing wrong with booing or heckling a guy. That's a part of the game, and it's usually all in good fun. Which is usually the way it gets taken. Sidney Crosby is one of the most hated players in sports, so he's a frequent target of opposing fans. And how does Crosby take it? By giving a Rangers fan that was riding him the whole game a signed stick afterwards!
But there's a definite line between what's acceptable and what isn't. And criminal behavior crosses that line. Most fans understand that. Then you have these jokers who make headlines for being morons. That's what happens when you mix stupid people and alcohol! Fortunately, the idiots are a very small percentage of the fans who attend a sporting event.
Another problem is that fans, frankly, are too close to the field of play. They pay thousands of dollars for courtside seats so that they can be right in the action. The NBA even has seats between the bench and the scorer's table, so players literally have to go by a row of fans just to check into the game! Why owners thought that was a good idea is beyond me!
Likewise, do you know how hard it is for a fan to get onto the field at a European soccer game? There aren't even barriers around the field! All they need to do is jump over the digital signage on the sidelines and they're on the field. And what's security gonna be able to do? (At least those jackasses who run onto the field at American games have to clear some sort of wall before security tackles them.)
The Westbrook incident also brought to light the double standard regarding player-fan interaction. For the most part, the players are held to a higher standard than the fans. I get that to an extent. But there needs to be repercussions for fans whose behavior goes over the line. The players might be professional athletes, but they're also real people. And, just like you and me, they can only take so much before they snap. It's not like this is a Ron Artest vs. Pistons fans situation, either.
Was Westbrook wrong for engaging Kesiel? Yes. That's why he was fined. But Westbrook is also getting the full support of Jazz players, who agree that fans need to be held accountable for their behavior.
Buying a ticket means you get to experience the thrill of the game up close and personal. It doesn't entitle you to do or say whatever you want. Most fans understand that. Then there are idiots like Paul Mitchell and Shane Keisel. There's no place for "fans" like them in any professional arena anywhere. Hopefully that message has gotten across.
Yet twice in two days, in two different countries, we had fans attacking players in the middle of the game. First in England, a Birmingham City fan named Paul Mitchell ran out onto the field and punched Aston Villa's Jack Grealish in the side of the head. Had that happened on the street, Mitchell would've been arrested and charged with assault. Then last night in Utah, Jazz fan Shane Keisel and his girlfriend got into a verbal altercation with the Thunder's Russell Westbrook. How did it start? Because Keisel made racist comments directed at Westbrook.
Both teams were quick in their response. Mitchell was banned from attending any (and I'll use the British term here) "football match" in the UK (which, I'm assuming doesn't just mean England) and fined 350 pounds. He was also sentenced to 14 weeks in jail. After reviewing the incident (which wasn't the first time Utah fans made racial taunts towards Westbrook), the Jazz permanently banned Keisel from the arena.
Mitchell at least showed some remorse. Whether it was authentic or just a legal ploy, he at least apologized for his actions. Keisel? Not so much. He didn't just try to justify it, he tried to deny saying anything inappropriate. This despite the fact that there was clear video evidence to the contrary and the fact that he'd been warned by the Jazz before.
Sadly, these are just the two most recent incidents of despicable fan behavior. There was a soccer game in England several years ago where a fan threw a firework on the field and hit the goalie with it. A FREAKING FIREWORK!! How was he even able to bring it into the stadium?! And, how can anyone ever forget the fan that was able to get close enough to stab Monica Seles in the back, costing her two years in the prime of her career?
There's nothing wrong with booing or heckling a guy. That's a part of the game, and it's usually all in good fun. Which is usually the way it gets taken. Sidney Crosby is one of the most hated players in sports, so he's a frequent target of opposing fans. And how does Crosby take it? By giving a Rangers fan that was riding him the whole game a signed stick afterwards!
But there's a definite line between what's acceptable and what isn't. And criminal behavior crosses that line. Most fans understand that. Then you have these jokers who make headlines for being morons. That's what happens when you mix stupid people and alcohol! Fortunately, the idiots are a very small percentage of the fans who attend a sporting event.
Another problem is that fans, frankly, are too close to the field of play. They pay thousands of dollars for courtside seats so that they can be right in the action. The NBA even has seats between the bench and the scorer's table, so players literally have to go by a row of fans just to check into the game! Why owners thought that was a good idea is beyond me!
Likewise, do you know how hard it is for a fan to get onto the field at a European soccer game? There aren't even barriers around the field! All they need to do is jump over the digital signage on the sidelines and they're on the field. And what's security gonna be able to do? (At least those jackasses who run onto the field at American games have to clear some sort of wall before security tackles them.)
The Westbrook incident also brought to light the double standard regarding player-fan interaction. For the most part, the players are held to a higher standard than the fans. I get that to an extent. But there needs to be repercussions for fans whose behavior goes over the line. The players might be professional athletes, but they're also real people. And, just like you and me, they can only take so much before they snap. It's not like this is a Ron Artest vs. Pistons fans situation, either.
Was Westbrook wrong for engaging Kesiel? Yes. That's why he was fined. But Westbrook is also getting the full support of Jazz players, who agree that fans need to be held accountable for their behavior.
Buying a ticket means you get to experience the thrill of the game up close and personal. It doesn't entitle you to do or say whatever you want. Most fans understand that. Then there are idiots like Paul Mitchell and Shane Keisel. There's no place for "fans" like them in any professional arena anywhere. Hopefully that message has gotten across.
Sunday, March 10, 2019
Overtime and Onside Kicks
For a league that's supposedly not actively doing any business until later this week, it's sure been a busy time in the NFL. As usual, players are getting traded (or vetoing trades!) and released left and right, even though this is all technically unofficial until the league year opens. And once the league year does start, they'll vote on nine rules changes that have been proposed by different teams.
It's interesting that the Competition Committee didn't propose any rule changes, while the teams put nine forward. The likelihood of them all passing seems very slim. Seeing as they need 75 percent support, I wouldn't be surprised if none of them pass. But that doesn't mean they aren't worthy of the discussion. Especially the proposal made by the Chiefs.
Kansas City, of course, never touched the ball in overtime in the AFC Championship Game. New England won the toss, Brady did what he does, and they were in the Patriots Game yet again. Just like in Patriots Game LI, when they won the overtime coin toss and Atlanta never touched the ball.
The Chiefs would like to see that changed. In fact, they've proposed three different changes to overtime. The first is that each team get a possession regardless. The second is getting rid of overtime in the preseason. And the third is eliminating the overtime coin toss. Instead, the team that won the opening coin toss would get the same choice they get at the start of the game.
Proposal No. 2 shouldn't ruffle any feathers at all. Preseason games are stupid to begin with. The fact that they play overtime in them is even dumber. What difference does it really make if they end in a tie? None whatsoever! (They don't even play extra innings in Spring Training baseball games most of the time.) And there's no new regular season overtime rule to get used to, which would be the only reason preseason overtime would make any degree of sense. So, basically, what I'm saying here is that preseason overtime is completely unnecessary and should've been eliminated a long time ago.
That's the only non-controversial part of their proposal, though. Everyone knows the one about possession is a direct reaction to the AFC Championship Game. I'd even say it's an overreaction. Except that on the surface, they have a point. Whoever won the coin toss was going to win that game, and a coin toss shouldn't determine who goes to the Super Bowl. Especially in an era so heavily skewed to favor the offense, it seems to make more sense to allow both offenses a chance to score.
After all, the current rule was implemented after a field goal on the opening drive of overtime in the NFC Championship Game sent the Saints to the Super Bowl over Brett Favre's Vikings. The next year, they changed it so that a first-possession field goal didn't do it. It had to be a touchdown or the other team would get the ball. If they match you, it reverts to sudden death.
Virtually everyone agrees that this method is better than the old one. However, it still has its flaws. Mainly, the fact that winning the coin toss still, more often than not, determines the winner of the game. And that's something that should never be left to chance! That's probably why the Chiefs want to get rid of the coin toss, too. But if both teams are guaranteed to get the ball either way, that change would be completely unnecessary. (That part of the proposal has absolutely no chance of passing, so I'm not going to waste my time talking about it.)
What Kansas City's proposing is basically a hybrid of the current system and the college overtime rule, which is far superior to the NFL's version. Although, I'd recommend one slight adjustment. After the first possession, you have to go for two. That would, theoretically, make the game end quicker than if they kept trading touchdowns and extra points.
There probably isn't enough traction for it to pass. (It only requires nine "No" votes from the owners to strike it down.) The networks probably won't want it, and it could potentially lead to more tie games in the regular season (especially after their idiotic decision two years ago to cut regular season overtime to 10 minutes, which might only give each team one possession as it is). But the fact that they're going to talk about it represents progress. Even if those talks don't go very far.
Most of the other proposals involve replay. Some make sense and seem like no-brainers. Others are a little more controversial. But the fact that there are so many teams making recommendations to adjust the instant replay rules speaks volumes. Clearly it's not working right now. The whole point of instant replay is to get calls right, yet there have been too many calls that officials have gotten wrong, but no one could do anything about it since the play wasn't reviewable. All the teams want is for them to get those calls right. If it means expanding replay, so be it.
Denver was one of the teams that made a replay proposal, but the Broncos' other proposal was interesting. The new kickoff rules last season make it virtually impossible to recover an onside kick...which, by extension, make it nearly impossible for the team that's trailing to come back late in games. They'd like to give that chance back by getting rid of the onside kick altogether. Instead, teams would attempt what amounts to a 4th-and-long play, and if they get a first down, they keep the ball.
This isn't a novel idea. It's actually one of the rules in the we-don't-need-kickers AAF. And teams would almost certainly have a better conversion rate on fourth-and-whatever than they do on onside kicks under the current rule. It's a little gimmicky, which is the reason why I'm lukewarm about it. But, in lieu of adjusting the kickoff rules so that teams actually have a chance of recovering an onside kick again (which seems unlikely), it's not completely terrible. I still don't think it'll pass, but I like where it's coming from.
Some of the replay changes will likely pass. So will the Chiefs' idea to get rid of preseason overtime. As for the others, we'll have to wait and see. I don't think either the overtime change or the onside kick change will garner enough support. But I wouldn't hate it if they did pass.
It's interesting that the Competition Committee didn't propose any rule changes, while the teams put nine forward. The likelihood of them all passing seems very slim. Seeing as they need 75 percent support, I wouldn't be surprised if none of them pass. But that doesn't mean they aren't worthy of the discussion. Especially the proposal made by the Chiefs.
Kansas City, of course, never touched the ball in overtime in the AFC Championship Game. New England won the toss, Brady did what he does, and they were in the Patriots Game yet again. Just like in Patriots Game LI, when they won the overtime coin toss and Atlanta never touched the ball.
The Chiefs would like to see that changed. In fact, they've proposed three different changes to overtime. The first is that each team get a possession regardless. The second is getting rid of overtime in the preseason. And the third is eliminating the overtime coin toss. Instead, the team that won the opening coin toss would get the same choice they get at the start of the game.
Proposal No. 2 shouldn't ruffle any feathers at all. Preseason games are stupid to begin with. The fact that they play overtime in them is even dumber. What difference does it really make if they end in a tie? None whatsoever! (They don't even play extra innings in Spring Training baseball games most of the time.) And there's no new regular season overtime rule to get used to, which would be the only reason preseason overtime would make any degree of sense. So, basically, what I'm saying here is that preseason overtime is completely unnecessary and should've been eliminated a long time ago.
That's the only non-controversial part of their proposal, though. Everyone knows the one about possession is a direct reaction to the AFC Championship Game. I'd even say it's an overreaction. Except that on the surface, they have a point. Whoever won the coin toss was going to win that game, and a coin toss shouldn't determine who goes to the Super Bowl. Especially in an era so heavily skewed to favor the offense, it seems to make more sense to allow both offenses a chance to score.
After all, the current rule was implemented after a field goal on the opening drive of overtime in the NFC Championship Game sent the Saints to the Super Bowl over Brett Favre's Vikings. The next year, they changed it so that a first-possession field goal didn't do it. It had to be a touchdown or the other team would get the ball. If they match you, it reverts to sudden death.
Virtually everyone agrees that this method is better than the old one. However, it still has its flaws. Mainly, the fact that winning the coin toss still, more often than not, determines the winner of the game. And that's something that should never be left to chance! That's probably why the Chiefs want to get rid of the coin toss, too. But if both teams are guaranteed to get the ball either way, that change would be completely unnecessary. (That part of the proposal has absolutely no chance of passing, so I'm not going to waste my time talking about it.)
What Kansas City's proposing is basically a hybrid of the current system and the college overtime rule, which is far superior to the NFL's version. Although, I'd recommend one slight adjustment. After the first possession, you have to go for two. That would, theoretically, make the game end quicker than if they kept trading touchdowns and extra points.
There probably isn't enough traction for it to pass. (It only requires nine "No" votes from the owners to strike it down.) The networks probably won't want it, and it could potentially lead to more tie games in the regular season (especially after their idiotic decision two years ago to cut regular season overtime to 10 minutes, which might only give each team one possession as it is). But the fact that they're going to talk about it represents progress. Even if those talks don't go very far.
Most of the other proposals involve replay. Some make sense and seem like no-brainers. Others are a little more controversial. But the fact that there are so many teams making recommendations to adjust the instant replay rules speaks volumes. Clearly it's not working right now. The whole point of instant replay is to get calls right, yet there have been too many calls that officials have gotten wrong, but no one could do anything about it since the play wasn't reviewable. All the teams want is for them to get those calls right. If it means expanding replay, so be it.
Denver was one of the teams that made a replay proposal, but the Broncos' other proposal was interesting. The new kickoff rules last season make it virtually impossible to recover an onside kick...which, by extension, make it nearly impossible for the team that's trailing to come back late in games. They'd like to give that chance back by getting rid of the onside kick altogether. Instead, teams would attempt what amounts to a 4th-and-long play, and if they get a first down, they keep the ball.
This isn't a novel idea. It's actually one of the rules in the we-don't-need-kickers AAF. And teams would almost certainly have a better conversion rate on fourth-and-whatever than they do on onside kicks under the current rule. It's a little gimmicky, which is the reason why I'm lukewarm about it. But, in lieu of adjusting the kickoff rules so that teams actually have a chance of recovering an onside kick again (which seems unlikely), it's not completely terrible. I still don't think it'll pass, but I like where it's coming from.
Some of the replay changes will likely pass. So will the Chiefs' idea to get rid of preseason overtime. As for the others, we'll have to wait and see. I don't think either the overtime change or the onside kick change will garner enough support. But I wouldn't hate it if they did pass.
Friday, March 8, 2019
Balance, Not Geography
It's International Women's Day, so it only seems appropriate to talk about the NCAA Women's Tournament. I was watching the UConn game the other day, and Rebecca Lobo pointed out that for the first time in a while, the Huskies aren't the prohibitive favorite for the title. In fact, it's so wide open that you could make a case for about five or six teams as legitimate National Championship contenders.
Which is going to make for an interesting tournament. Starting with the unveiling of the bracket. Because who gets what seed and where they're scheduled to play against who will be the source of a lot of discussion. And probably a little bit of controversy. And I can guarantee that somebody's going to be unhappy.
Unlike in the men's tournament, women's teams are allowed to play at home in the first two rounds. So all of these teams (except for South Carolina, which is hosting the men's tournament) will be in their own arenas on the opening weekend. That's not the issue. It's the following weekend when they have to travel for the Regionals that things get interesting. Because someone's gonna have to travel...and be at a huge disadvantage as a result.
Twice in the past few weeks, the NCAA has unveiled its top 16 seeds at that moment in time. They're obviously subject to change right up until Selection Monday, but those top 16 announcements have been telling for a couple reasons. First, they've given us an idea of what the committee is thinking. But they've also given us a hint of the complicated mess that is creating the bracket.
Because it's not as simple as going by the S-curve. If it was, you'd have 1, 8, 9 and 16 in the same region, with the separating conference teams serving as the only real adjustment to that. For the most part, that's what they do on the men's side. But with the women, they worry about where as well, which adds another, unnecessary wrinkle.
With the men, they don't care. They'll fly anybody anywhere. Not so with the women. The NCAA tries to keep teams as close as possible so that they can take a bus instead of a plane. And that dictates where they get placed. It shouldn't. But it does.
That means we know two things right off the bat. UConn is getting sent to Albany and Oregon is getting sent to Portland. UConn is currently on the 1-line and will probably be the No. 3 overall seed behind Baylor and whoever wins the ACC. When they were a 2 (like they were in the first top 16 reveal), that meant you were gonna have a 1-seed at a huge disadvantage playing a virtual road game against UConn in Albany. Just like the No. 1 seed in Portland will have to deal with.
Now, I'm not saying Oregon shouldn't be in Portland. Along with Stanford, they're one of two West Coast teams among the top eight and it makes no sense for them to fly cross-country while placing other non-Oregon teams in Portland. They do the same thing in the men's tournament, too (Duke and North Carolina will both be in Columbia on the opening weekend). That's not really the heart of the issue. It's how they determined the 1-seed who'll play the Ducks that is.
Chicago and Greensboro are the other two Regional sites. Louisville and Notre Dame are the other two projected 1-seeds. Albany's obviously out of play, which means either Baylor, Louisville or Notre Dame has to go out West to face Oregon. Louisville is within 500 miles (the bus threshold) of both Chicago and Greensboro, so they could theoretically travel in either direction, while Notre Dame is only about 90 minutes from Chicago. Baylor has to fly regardless.
So it should be easy, right? Notre Dame goes to Chicago, Louisville goes to Greensboro and Baylor flies to Portland. Except Baylor's the overall No. 1 and Oregon's the overall No. 5, so they understandably don't want them to be disadvantaged by that long trip and, for all intents and purposes, road game. And since either Notre Dame or Louisville can bus to Chicago, it makes the most sense to put them in Greesboro. Which means whoever doesn't win the ACC has to go to Portland.
Right now that team is Notre Dame, the defending National Champions. They also have South Carolina, the 2017 National Champions, heading to Portland as the No. 3 seed. Mississippi State lost both of those championship games and is currently projected as a 2-seed. They were a 1 in the first projection...and ticketed to face UConn in Albany! Those seeds have reversed, but the matchup is the same. Meanwhile, NC State is a 3-seed but would only have to travel 80 miles to Greensboro (where the ACC Tournament is being played!).
Bottom line is teams are gonna have to travel. That's the nature of the tournament. So, balance should be more important than geography. Should geography be a secondary factor? Sure. But you shouldn't have a 3-seed essentially playing at home. Especially when your reason for doing that is because you gave them the site priority as the top 3-seed.
In their first bracket update, it was a mess. They clearly thought about geography first, and the result was a bracket that was incredibly unbalanced. Some regions were definitely stronger than others. This one came close to following the S-curve, with flipping Syracuse and Iowa State to keep Syracuse away from Louisville as the only exception (although they had no problem putting Syracuse with Notre Dame).
They've gotten a lot better at it. I'll give them that. UConn and Rutgers met in a Regional Final when they were both in the Big East, and the year Texas A&M won the National Championship, they played Baylor for a FOURTH! time that season in the Regional Final. They at least try to separate conference teams now. But they need to take the next step. Place the 1-seeds (and 2-seeds if you can) in the closest regions. After that, worry about balance. Not geography.
Which is going to make for an interesting tournament. Starting with the unveiling of the bracket. Because who gets what seed and where they're scheduled to play against who will be the source of a lot of discussion. And probably a little bit of controversy. And I can guarantee that somebody's going to be unhappy.
Unlike in the men's tournament, women's teams are allowed to play at home in the first two rounds. So all of these teams (except for South Carolina, which is hosting the men's tournament) will be in their own arenas on the opening weekend. That's not the issue. It's the following weekend when they have to travel for the Regionals that things get interesting. Because someone's gonna have to travel...and be at a huge disadvantage as a result.
Twice in the past few weeks, the NCAA has unveiled its top 16 seeds at that moment in time. They're obviously subject to change right up until Selection Monday, but those top 16 announcements have been telling for a couple reasons. First, they've given us an idea of what the committee is thinking. But they've also given us a hint of the complicated mess that is creating the bracket.
Because it's not as simple as going by the S-curve. If it was, you'd have 1, 8, 9 and 16 in the same region, with the separating conference teams serving as the only real adjustment to that. For the most part, that's what they do on the men's side. But with the women, they worry about where as well, which adds another, unnecessary wrinkle.
With the men, they don't care. They'll fly anybody anywhere. Not so with the women. The NCAA tries to keep teams as close as possible so that they can take a bus instead of a plane. And that dictates where they get placed. It shouldn't. But it does.
That means we know two things right off the bat. UConn is getting sent to Albany and Oregon is getting sent to Portland. UConn is currently on the 1-line and will probably be the No. 3 overall seed behind Baylor and whoever wins the ACC. When they were a 2 (like they were in the first top 16 reveal), that meant you were gonna have a 1-seed at a huge disadvantage playing a virtual road game against UConn in Albany. Just like the No. 1 seed in Portland will have to deal with.
Now, I'm not saying Oregon shouldn't be in Portland. Along with Stanford, they're one of two West Coast teams among the top eight and it makes no sense for them to fly cross-country while placing other non-Oregon teams in Portland. They do the same thing in the men's tournament, too (Duke and North Carolina will both be in Columbia on the opening weekend). That's not really the heart of the issue. It's how they determined the 1-seed who'll play the Ducks that is.
Chicago and Greensboro are the other two Regional sites. Louisville and Notre Dame are the other two projected 1-seeds. Albany's obviously out of play, which means either Baylor, Louisville or Notre Dame has to go out West to face Oregon. Louisville is within 500 miles (the bus threshold) of both Chicago and Greensboro, so they could theoretically travel in either direction, while Notre Dame is only about 90 minutes from Chicago. Baylor has to fly regardless.
So it should be easy, right? Notre Dame goes to Chicago, Louisville goes to Greensboro and Baylor flies to Portland. Except Baylor's the overall No. 1 and Oregon's the overall No. 5, so they understandably don't want them to be disadvantaged by that long trip and, for all intents and purposes, road game. And since either Notre Dame or Louisville can bus to Chicago, it makes the most sense to put them in Greesboro. Which means whoever doesn't win the ACC has to go to Portland.
Right now that team is Notre Dame, the defending National Champions. They also have South Carolina, the 2017 National Champions, heading to Portland as the No. 3 seed. Mississippi State lost both of those championship games and is currently projected as a 2-seed. They were a 1 in the first projection...and ticketed to face UConn in Albany! Those seeds have reversed, but the matchup is the same. Meanwhile, NC State is a 3-seed but would only have to travel 80 miles to Greensboro (where the ACC Tournament is being played!).
Bottom line is teams are gonna have to travel. That's the nature of the tournament. So, balance should be more important than geography. Should geography be a secondary factor? Sure. But you shouldn't have a 3-seed essentially playing at home. Especially when your reason for doing that is because you gave them the site priority as the top 3-seed.
In their first bracket update, it was a mess. They clearly thought about geography first, and the result was a bracket that was incredibly unbalanced. Some regions were definitely stronger than others. This one came close to following the S-curve, with flipping Syracuse and Iowa State to keep Syracuse away from Louisville as the only exception (although they had no problem putting Syracuse with Notre Dame).
They've gotten a lot better at it. I'll give them that. UConn and Rutgers met in a Regional Final when they were both in the Big East, and the year Texas A&M won the National Championship, they played Baylor for a FOURTH! time that season in the Regional Final. They at least try to separate conference teams now. But they need to take the next step. Place the 1-seeds (and 2-seeds if you can) in the closest regions. After that, worry about balance. Not geography.
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