As the baseball season reaches the midway point, it's incredibly obvious which teams will be buyers and which will be sellers at the trade deadline. The Yankees, Red Sox and Astros already have 50 wins, and we could possibly be looking at three 100-win clubs in the American League alone. So, needless to say, they'll all be looking to add that piece or two that will result in their lifting the Commissioner's Trophy in early November. In the National League, meanwhile, a handful of teams will be fighting just to get to the postseason, where anything will be possible.
There are also fewer teams that are completely out of it in the National League, which means we're looking at a handful of AL clubs to provide contenders with the two-month rent-a-players. It's not the potentially historic free agent class that awaits us in the offseason. But there are definitely some difference-makers who'll be available. And that could be the difference between winning a championship or not.
Washington already made the first move, coming out of nowhere to strike early and snag Royals closer Kelvin Herrera. Herrera was definitely going to be traded and the Nationals definitely needed bullpen help, so, while the timing was somewhat unexpected, that deal made a lot of sense. And it sets the Nationals up to not have to worry about that as they think about what other moves to make.
So, Herrera's out of the equation, but he's not the only big name who'll move. Not by a long shot. In fact, it would be very surprising if certain players are still in their current uniforms after July 31. (I just hope it doesn't screw up All*Star selections and required team reps like Herrera did.)
Manny Machado: Certainly the biggest prize out there is Manny Machado, who'll certainly be a rental for whichever team gets him. I am confident in saying that he'll go to a National League team. Why? Because all five AL playoff teams already have a shortstop. But the Cubs and Dodgers don't, and neither do the Cardinals. The Cubs can probably offer the Orioles more, including some actual Major League players such as their current shortstop, Addison Russell. But the Dodgers are more desperate and will be willing to part with prospects, which Baltimore desperately needs. My prediction: Dodgers
Cole Hamels: Houston doesn't win the World Series last year if they don't get Justin Verlander at literally the last possible second. There won't be a Verlander-style difference-maker this year, but Hamels is the closest thing to it. The Yankees need a starter. That's not a secret. They also have about five Major Leaguers currently playing in Triple A. That's also not a secret. My guess is a couple of those guys will end up wearing Rangers jerseys by the end of June. Hamels to the Yankees just makes too much sense to not happen. My prediction: Yankees
J.A. Happ: Hamels' former Phillies teammate J.A. Happ also likely appears to be on the move. As much as they might want to trade Josh Donaldson, he's the one guy Toronto will actually get something of value for, even if it's not much for a 35-year-old potential free agent. Still, I think Happ gets moved. Atlanta makes sense. So do the Dodgers, Cubs and Brewers. Heck, I can even see him returning to Philly. My prediction: Brewers
Jacob de Grom: Mets fans have finally stopped with their little Jacob de Grom for Gleyber Torres fantasy. There's absolutely no chance they're sending de Grom across town, and even less of a chance Gleyber Torres is going anywhere (although I do think the Yankees would be willing to part with Miguel Andujar in the right deal). Anyway, the Mariners haven't been to the postseason in 17 years. They'll do whatever it takes to change that. And, if they do get to October and make it past the Wild Card Game, they'll need another starting pitcher. Someone like Jacob de Grom, for example. My prediction: Mariners
Brad Hand: What relievers will be available is still up in the air. But it's safe to say Hand will be, and where he lands could be a matter of who gives the Padres the best offer. Both the Red Sox and Astros will be after Hand hard, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're fielding calls from the Nationals, as well. My hunch tells me he's American League-bound. Most likely to Boston, which needs a left-handed arm in that bullpen. My prediction: Red Sox
Michael Fulmer: He's also been linked to the Yankees, but I think Hamels is a better fit, which means Fulmer could be headed elsewhere. The Tigers did business with the Diamondbacks last year with J.D. Martinez, and I can easily see that happening again. Arizona needs another starter behind Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin, and Fulmer probably won't cost them that much. My prediction: Diamondbacks
Chris Archer: Here's where things get interesting. Archer's pretty much the only guy left on the Rays who you've ever heard of. But he's also oft-injured (and currently on the DL). So, I can see this one going either way. If they don't get an offer they like or everyone thinks the price tag is too high, I can see him staying. But I can also see him being on the move if the price is right. When a team doesn't get the starter they want and gets desperate, they'll make the move on Archer. I have a feeling he goes to the National League. My prediction: Braves
Josh Harrison: With the Cardinals sitting in third place, it seems unlikely that they'll catch the Brewers and Cubs if they don't make a move. And that move should be for a middle infielder. So, in other words, they'll be in on Machado. I don't think they have enough to land the big dog, but they should still be able to get something. Enter Josh Harrison. My only question here is whether the Pirates would actually trade him to a division rival. My prediction: Cardinals
Am I way off on some of these? Probably. But don't be surprised if any of these guys (among others) are moved. Because, as good as the three AL teams are, they know that they can be better. And, in the NL, it's a matter of who makes the move first...and who's best-positioned to make a run in October.
For all the lack of action there was during free agency, expect plenty of it between now and the trade deadline. That'll more than make up for it.
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