Decision 2026

On the Eve of the 2018 World Cup, it's Decision Day for FIFA.  Representatives from each of FIFA's member nations will decide whether Morocco or the combined North American bid will host the 2026 World Cup.  This is FIFA's first World Cup host election since Russia and Qatar were able to buy the next two editions, leading to the massive corruption revelations that brought down longtime FIFA President Sepp Blatter and resulted in a number of necessary reforms to the voting process.

Instead of the FIFA Executive Committee making the decision, all 211 member nations have a vote.  Although, bidding nations can't vote (for themselves), which brings that number down to 207.  And, it looks like Morocco was successful in its attempt to disqualify the four U.S. territories that are FIFA members on "conflict of interest" grounds, taking away four pro-United votes and.  From what I understand, Ghana and Kosovo aren't present at the meeting, which eliminates their votes, as well.  Which would mean 201 countries are voting and it'll take 101 to win.  (If Guam, Puerto Rico, American Samoa and the Virgin Islands remain eligible to vote, those numbers become 205 and 103.)

Not surprisingly, most of Africa is supporting Morocco and pretty much all of the Americas are backing the USA/Mexico/Canada bid.  The New York Times has a vote tracker that shows United with a 54-28 advantage among countries that have made their preference public, but they also have a lot of African nations in the "undecided" column, and Africa is the largest confederation.

Assuming Morocco gets all of Africa and United gets all of both CONCACAF and CONMEBOL, that's a 55-47 edge for Morocco.  Morocco is also an Islamic country, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them get a lot of support from the other Islamic nations (although not all, as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Afghanistan are firm U.S. votes).

After Qatar literally bought its way to hosting duties for 2022, you'd expect FIFA to be diligent in making sure that doesn't happen again.  But, the organization was so corruption-laden for so long.  You know there are still going to be backroom dealings.  There will just be fewer of them.  And they won't be as obvious.

As a result, this could end up being close.  And Morocco, despite being the far weaker and far riskier choice, could actually end up winning.  I don't think that'll be the case, especially because current FIFA President Gianni Infantino has expressed his preference for the USA-led bid.  But no one thought Qatar had a chance, either, and we all know what happened there.

I'm not going to get into the pros and cons of the two bids and compare their strengths relative to each other.  Because everyone knows the USA/Mexico/Canada bid is far stronger in every regard.  But everyone also knows that the USA should've won the right to host in 2022, so that obviously doesn't mean anything.

This will be the first World Cup with 48 teams instead of 32.  I'm not even sure Morocco would be capable of hosting a 32-team tournament.  The United States couldn't just handle the additional 16 teams, they'd be able to do it tomorrow.  For the first expanded tournament, wouldn't it make more sense to go to the place where you know there won't be any logistical issues?

If the common-sense argument isn't enough to sway them, maybe the financial one will.  Because, after all, we know how much these guys like money.  And the amount of money to be made by bringing the World Cup back to North America is astronomical.  The 1994 World Cup is still one of the best and most profitable in history.  That one only had 24 teams and 52 games.  In 2026, there will be twice as many teams and 80 games.  The profits could be in the billions!

Of course, there are other factors at play.  Donald Trump's rhetoric and some of his policies have rubbed a lot of people the wrong way.  Although, he also wrote letters on official White House stationery in support of the bid.  And, perhaps more importantly, Donald Trump won't be President in 2026.  There's also plenty of resentment left over from the bribery scandal, which was primarily U.S.-led, so I can see some votes going Morocco's way because of that.

So, a vote that really shouldn't be that close on paper could end up being just that.  Even though the USA/Mexico/Canada bid is significantly stronger in every aspect, Morocco has its supporters.  When Morocco first announced its bid, it looked like just a token bid to prevent it from just being an automatic award to North America.  But the Moroccan bid gained traction and what was long considered a slam dunk suddenly became a nail-biter.

Ultimately, I do think the United bid will emerge victorious.  It's the better option, it's the smarter option, and it's what FIFA wants.  But we also thought that in 2010, when they awarded the 2022 World Cup to Qatar instead.  So, I'm not declaring victory until the votes are counted and the host is announced.  Although, I'm still confident that I'll be attending World Cup games at MetLife Stadium in 2026.