At first glance, this year's French Open draws look really strange. Rafael Nadal is the No. 1 seed on the men's side, which isn't that odd, but beyond that, these draws don't come anywhere near what you'd expect to see.
Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka, who've both missed significant time over the past year due to injury, are seeded 20th and 23rd. Last year, Djokovic was No. 2 and Wawrinka was No. 3. In fact, Djokovic is seeded lower than second at Roland Garros for the first time since 2010 (when he was seeded third). Meanwhile, Roger Federer's sitting out the French Open for the third straight year and Andy Murray is still injured. As a result, the top seeds behind Nadal are No. 2 Alexander Zverev, No. 3 Marin Cilic and No. 4 Grigor Dimitrov. Like I said, it's weird.
The big story on the women's side is Serena Williams making her return to Grand Slam tennis for the first time since giving birth to her daughter. Although, the fact that she wasn't given a seed was a source of discussion throughout the week. I don't see why people are trying to make a controversy out of that, though. (Even Ivanka Trump felt the need to chime in.)
She has a protected ranking, which she used to enter the tournament. But a protected ranking is only used for entry. The seeds are based on the current world rankings. And Serena's current ranking is No. 453. Is she one of the 32 best players in the world? Absolutely. But that's not the point. Tournament organizers were not required to seed her and, in fact, they followed the rules exactly as they're written (Serena wasn't seeded at either of her first two tournaments this year, either).
Some other players have advocated on her behalf and have said they'd like to see that rule changed. It seems likely that it will, but it can't be put into effect until next year at the earliest (and this will be a moot point by then). And, let's face it, the organizers were in a no-win situation. Because if they had seeded her, plenty of people would've considered it special treatment and been asking why they didn't follow the rankings like they're supposed to.
Also, let's keep in mind that Serena is just 2-2 this year. If you were to seed her, what seed would it be? Because No. 1 or 2 certainly wouldn't be warranted. So, as you can tell, I'm OK with Serena being unseeded. Some people might not like it (and some top players likely wanted her seeded just to avoid the possibility of playing her early), but I think it was the right decision.
When she's at the top of her game (which I don't think she is right now), she's capable of beating anybody on any given day. Which the other players all know and terrifies them. And if she's fit enough to win seven matches, it really doesn't matter whether she's seeded or not.
Anyway, the top women's players caught a bit of a break. Because they all avoided Serena early. Her round of 16 match could be against Maria Sharapova (talk about intrigue), then No. 3 Garbine Muguruza, who beat her in the 2016 final, awaits in the quarterfinals. So, all in all, Serena ended up with a pretty good draw for an unseeded player. And she's actually set up for a pretty good run, provided she's fit enough (since she and Venus are playing doubles, too, which will either help her regain her fitness or wear her out completely).
Muguruza is the best clay court player in the world, so I'm installing her as my favorite. I've got her losing in the final to Elina Svitolina, the No. 4 seed, though. Like Svitolina, No. 1 Simona Halep has never won a Grand Slam, and, like Svitolina, this is her best chance to break that streak. You can't say that anymore about Caroline Wozniacki, who comes in as the No. 2 seed and no longer has that hanging over her head. We thought her breakthrough would be here a year ago. Instead Jelena Ostapenko won her first career WTA title at the French Open. The tournament can't be that crazy two years in a row, right?
On the men's side, there's very little point in pretending someone other than Nadal has a chance of winning. He's lost a grand total of two French Open matches in his career and is a 10-time champion, the record for any individual at any Grand Slam. So, who are we kidding? It'll be a shock if he doesn't make it 11. There's not even a name in his draw that I'd even say is a threat to beat him.
Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro played a great semifinal at the US Open last year, and they're in line to play another one here. Djokovic and Wawrinka are both on the bottom half of the draw, but I have the same questions about them as I do about Serena. If they're healthy and fit enough, either one could win the six matches necessary to lose to Nadal in the final.
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