We're less than a year away from the start of the PyeongChang Olympics and we still don't know whether or not the NHL will be sending its players to Korea. Now, for the Sochi Games, an agreement wasn't reached until the summer, so it's not entirely unusual that they don't have a deal yet. Except in Sochi, everyone pretty much knew the NHL was going to be there. It was really just a matter of dotting the i's and crossing the t's. This time, we're not so sure.
To be clear, the players want to go. The IOC wants them to go. The IIHF wants them to go. The fans want them to go. The only people who don't want NHL players to participate in the 2018 Olympics are the owners. And, unfortunately, it's the owners that have all the power in this situation.
Now, to be fair, it's not all of the owners that have put us in this situation. Alex Ovechkin has made it clear that he wants to play whether the NHL shuts the season down or not, and Capitals owner Ted Leonisis has given his best player his blessing. And if Leonisis is going to let one of the biggest stars in the sport go to PyeongChang, how bad will the other owners look if they don't do the same? I'm sure they'd prefer to have their best players suiting up for their teams in meaningful games rather than their countries, but you know once an Ovechkin or a Crosby or a Kane goes, others will follow, whether their owners like it or not. (In Sochi, in fact, the Bruins let Zdeno Chara miss two games so he could be Slovakia's flag bearer.)
That's why I do think we will see the NHL send its players to PyeongChang for the Olympic tournament. Because this is more than a simple case of the players wanting something and the owners wanting something else. It's a matter of PR. The NHL will look far worse if they don't go. Beyond that, NBC and CBC, the league's two major TV partners, will not be happy if they don't go. NBC and CBC are both Olympic rights holders. They would very much prefer to not have to squeeze NHL games into an Olympic schedule they're likely already planning.
Frankly, who's going to watch an NHL game during those two weeks anyway? The NHL is the lowest-rated of the four major sports anyway, and you want to compete with your only national TV partner for an already limited audience? Hockey Night In Canada would likely be preempted for Olympic coverage, and all of NBC's promotion will go towards PyeongChang. But if they do play, it gives them two weeks of commercial time (perhaps to promote a Stadium Series game in Las Vegas?). Plus, the added fun of announcing Team USA at the end of the Winter Classic, like they did in 2010 and 2014.
Whatever logistics the NHL has to work out with the IIHF and IOC shouldn't be significant enough to be deal-breakers. How do you know the owners (however reluctantly) are willing to let the players go? Because they've already offered it once. They said that if the players agreed to a three-year CBA extension, they'd sign off on Olympic participation. As expected, the players declined that. They didn't want to be unable to negotiate changes to the CBA for three more years. The owners knew the players would decline it. But this way, they made it look like it was the players who didn't want to go, which couldn't be further from the truth.
The fact of the matter is the owners don't want to go because it's Korea. That's the only reason. They don't see an ability to grow the game there like they do in 2022, when China will be hosting. And a trip to Korea, of course, also involves long flights and early start times (games are at noon, 4:30 and 9:00 Korea time, which translates to 10:00 the night before, 2:30 am and 7 am on the East Coast). They don't see any benefit in all that travel for games that will take place when most Americans and Canadians are sleeping.
But here's the problem with that logic: they still want to go to Beijing in 2022. I forget what player said it, but he put it best. You can't pick and choose. We either have NHL Olympic participation or we don't. And after five straight Olympics where the NHL did shut down its season to take part, that's what everyone has come to expect.
Furthermore, all of the major professional leagues in Europe have already announced that they're going to take an Olympic break. If the KHL shuts down and the NHL doesn't, it'll obviously shift the competitive balance in the tournament. Russia becomes the favorites (assuming they're allowed to compete.) Canada goes from the heavy favorites to a medal contender (there are still plenty of Canadians to choose from in the KHL that they'll have a pretty good team). The U.S. might as well not even send a team if the NHL guys don't go (although, it's not exactly like the NHLers were world beaters in the World Cup).
I digress for a second to bring up another potential problem that has nothing to do with the NHL. The hockey fields are set and the groups have already been made. Russia's in both tournaments. So what happens if the IOC decides to ban the entire Russian Olympic team because of the doping scandal? Do they reseed the tournament? Who gets the 12th spot? When will that decision be made?
Anyway, the Russia thing I'm sure will settle itself out. Just like I'm sure the NHL thing will. We'll see NHL players in the 2018 Olympic hockey tournament. I have no doubt. The owners can't be that stupid. Can they?
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