Predicting who's going to make the Pro Football Hall of Fame each year is a very inexact science. Unlike baseball, which is very straightforward and you have a pretty good idea based on who the new candidates are and prior vote totals for carryovers, the vote for the Football Hall of Fame is very subjective. It's 40 guys who are all going to go into it with their obvious preferences and are just trying to get everyone else in the room to agree. I'm actually pretty proud of myself for getting three of the five right last year.
With that being said, though, there are some obvious trends when it comes to Pro Football Hall of Fame voting that make these calls a little bit easier. For example, they almost always vote for an offensive lineman (perhaps as some sort of overcorrection because offensive lineman don't have stats and get very little recognition). Likewise, at least one first-year candidate is usually selected to "headline" the class. And the senior/contributor candidates are virtually guaranteed selection, as are the five that make it to the final round of voting. (I can't even think of the last time they didn't vote in the maximum number of finalists.)
Using that criteria, as well as my own personal preference, here are the five Modern Era finalists that would get my vote. Keep in mind, I have no illusions of this being the final list. Who'll actually make it is anybody's guess. The Pro Football Hall of Fame vote usually contains a surprise or two, and I don't think this year will be any different.
LaDainian Tomlinson, Running Back (2001-09 Chargers, 2010-11 Jets): There isn't a single person who doesn't think LDT (there's only one LT, and he played linebacker for the Giants) will be elected this year. And you can understand why. He's easily the best of the first-year eligible candidates, and he's one of the best dual-threat running backs in NFL history. Too many records and All-Pro selections to count for a guy you knew was a future Hall of Famer while you watched him play for 11 years. It'll also be nice to see the SAN DIEGO Chargers have one of their all-time greats honored in Canton even as the team reluctantly moves up the California coast.
Kurt Warner, Quarterback (1998-2003 Rams, 2004 Giants, 2005-09 Cardinals): He's been biding his time for the last couple years, but I think Kurt Warner's wait will finally end. I can see why they made him wait for Brett Favre. But with Favre now forever residing in Canton, Warner becomes the best quarterback on the ballot until Peyton Manning's guaranteed first-ballot election. He isn't remotely in Favre's league, but his career was still Hall of Fame worthy. Warner was the ringleader of the Greatest Show on Turf, taking a Rams team that was irrelevant before and since to two Super Bowls, winning one. Then, after keeping the seat warm for Eli Manning in New York, he took another moribund franchise--the Cardinals--and took them to their first Super Bowl.
Joe Jacoby, Tackle (1981-93 Redskins): Joe Jacoby's been waiting long enough. He deserves to be this year's offensive lineman. How many offensive lines in NFL history were so good that they got a nickname? Can you think of any others besides the Hogs? So why is Russ Grimm the only member of the Hogs in the Hall of Fame? Joe Jacoby is one of the few Redskins that was on all three of their Super Bowl winners, and he's a big reason why they won three titles. I'm sure Kevin Mawae's and Alan Faneca's time will come. Theirs just shouldn't come before Joe Jacoby's.
John Lynch, Safety (1993-2003 Buccaneers, 2004-07 Broncos): Speaking of guys who've been waiting long enough, Jacoby and Lynch were the two that I missed on last year, so it's only natural I've got both of them in my class again. The 49ers' new GM's candidacy will either be helped or hurt by Brian Dawkins also appearing on the ballot. Most people (myself included) would agree that Dawkins was the better safety. So was Ed Reed for that matter. But if Dawkins isn't a first-ballot guy (which I don't think he is), do you continue to make Lynch wait for him to get his own bust in Canton? That doesn't seem right when the gap between them really isn't all that great. The voters seem to feel the same way. All indications are that they're leaning towards voting Lynch in.
Jason Taylor, Defensive End (1997-2007 Dolphins, 2008 Redskins, 2009 Dolphins, 2010 Jets, 2011 Dolphins): The fifth selection was the toughest. This could very easily have gone to Don Coryell. But through process of elimination, I knocked out the remaining offensive linemen and defensive backs, and they've elected so many wide receivers recently that without a standout in this year's group, I think they lean towards the defense, which is how I arrive at Jason Taylor. And I'd be totally fine with it if he got in. A former Defensive Player of the Year and three-time All-Pro, he was probably the best pass rusher of his day not named Strahan.
As for contributor candidates Jerry Jones and Paul Tagliabue, I have no problem with either one. In fact, I think they both should be in the Hall of Fame. Jones turned the Cowboys back into winners almost immediately after buying the franchise, and he's become one of the most influential owners on the business side of the league. And let's not forget his billion-dollar football palace.
Tagliabue, meanwhile, had the unenviable task of succeeding Pete Rozelle, and he did it brilliantly. He was Commissioner for 17 years, during which time the NFL became America's most popular sport. Tagliabue oversaw the expansion to 32 teams and there was labor peace throughout his tenure. The contributor category was created a couple years ago to honor guys like Tagliabue who had a hard time getting in when they were going against the players. Now that he's finally reached the final round, it'll be a shock if he doesn't get elected.
Lastly, we have senior candidate Kenny Easley. This name is not a familiar one, and he certainly doesn't scream out "Hall of Famer." That might be because he played only seven years. But those seven years were pretty freakin' good, and earned him a place on the 1980s All-Decade Team. I'm also somewhat disturbed by the fact that a guy whose entire career spanned from 1981-87 is considered a "senior." The next thing I know, guys who retired in the 90s will be considered "seniors." That'll really make me feel old!
Anyway, that's my list. Other than the three senior/contributor finalists, Tomlinson is the only player I'd consider to be a lock. Although, I think things do look good for Lynch and Warner.
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