The Trump Factor

America's been great again for 10 days!  Donald Trump has only been President for a week and a half, yet it's remarkable how many Executive Orders he's already issued will have a major impact on the world of sports.  And there's probably no event that's going to be impacted more than the potential LA 2024 Olympics.

By all accounts, we're in for a very close vote between LA and Paris when the IOC gathers to decide the 2024 host city in September.  Paris and LA both have very strong bids.  The IOC is so impressed with both of them, in fact, that there's talk they'll award both the 2024 and 2028 Games (presumably to LA and Paris) in September.  While there's no indication that is what they'll do, don't be surprised if it happens, either.

So what does President Trump have to do with all of this?  Well, for starters, there was a lot of concern within the IOC about what a Trump presidency would be like.  And so far, some of those concerns seem to be well-founded.  September is eight months away.  Who knows what Trump's America will look like then?  Regardless, those IOC members who were turned off by the prospect of Donald Trump opening the Olympics may shift their vote towards Paris.  And that could be enough to shift the vote in the French city's favor.

Among the articles I've read suggesting they'll award both Olympics at once, the most common scenario has Paris hosting in 2024, followed by Los Angeles four years later.  Why not the other way around?  Once again, the answer is Donald Trump.  There's no possible way for Donald Trump to open the 2028 Olympics.  If he's reelected, his presidency will end in 2025.  So, if you don't want Trump opening the Games, why take the chance on giving LA 2024 when he could, theoretically still be President, when you can give them 2028, when he definitely can't, instead?

I'm not sure if the IOC members are actually as concerned about Donald Trump as the media is letting on or if the Trump Presidency will really have any bearing at all on the LA/Paris vote.  Maybe it'll have the opposite effect.  President Bush didn't go to Singapore to campaign for New York in 2005, while President Obama did state Chicago's case in Copenhagen in 2009.  The American city lost both times, so Trump's presence in Lima at the IOC Session probably isn't viewed as that vital.  Who's to say whether he'd help or hurt LA's chances anyway?

Personally, I don't think whether or not Donald Trump goes to Lima for the 2024 Olympic vote makes a difference.  Paris and LA are both capable of staging an extraordinary Olympics, and one is most likely going to join London as the only three-time hosts in 2024.  If that city happens to be Paris, you'd hope it's on the merits of the bid rather than the fact that Donald Trump is currently the President of the United States.

And, it's worth noting, that Paris has long been considered the front runner for reasons that have nothing to do with Donald Trump.  Paris would still be the favorite even if Hillary Clinton was the current occupant of the White House.

The IOC is very European-heavy.  After going to South America, then Asia three straight times, they'll probably want an Olympics at home.  In addition, there's never been more than 12 years between Summer Games in Europe.  There was a 12-year gap between Moscow and Barcelona, then another 12-year gap between Barcelona and Athens.  How many years will 2024 be since London?  Oh, that's right, 12!

You'd also have to think that the Budapest voters will throw their support to Paris in the final round, which could possibly tip the scales in Paris' favor.  Likewise, there's a sense that this could be a make-up vote for Paris, which has finished second or third in the voting too many times to count in recent bid cycles.  And 2024 will be the 100th anniversary of the last time Paris hosted the Olympics.  While that technically shouldn't matter, you know it'll be in the back of some voters' minds.

As I said, Paris is the favorite.  And, call me un-American if you want, but I do think Paris is likely going to land the 2024 Olympics.  If that is ultimately what happens, it will be because Paris deserved to win.  It won't be because of Donald Trump.  At least not completely.