Yes, I'm aware of the fact that it's Monday afternoon in Australia and the tournament has been underway for several hours. There's even been one big upset on the women's side already, as fourth-seeded Simona Halep lost to American Shelby Rogers (so much for my prediction that Halep would end up in the semifinals). That 14-hour time difference isn't easy to work around, especially when there are plenty of other things happening on Sunday.
Anyway, this is one of the strangest Grand Slam draws I've seen in recent memory. And that's all because of Roger Federer. Since he didn't play after Wimbledon last year, that's four months' worth of zero ranking points. As a result, his ranking has plummeted and he's seeded 17th here. As weird as it is to see a 17 next to his name, you know every single top player was hoping to stay as far away from the 17 seed as humanly possible.
Well, it's his old buddy Tomas Berdych that drew the short straw. Federer-Berdych in the third round, with the winner getting Kei Nishikori, then Andy Murray in the quarters. Murray, who finally became No. 1 in the world at the end of last year is the top seed at a Grand Slam for the first time (also weird, a "2" next to Djokovic)...and his "reward" is a potential quarterfinal against Roger Federer. If Roger is back to 100 percent healthy, everyone knows he'll be back in the top 10 before long (although it will take a while since he doesn't lose all those zeroes until the summer). But until his ranking is back up, he's going to loom as a dangerous floater in whoever is unfortunate enough's draw.
I do still like Murray to win this title, though. He's a different player since he's become No. 1. Yes, he ascended to the top while Federer and Nadal were both out with injuries, and Djokovic didn't really play that much after the US Open last year. But he's still the top dog at the moment, and he's always played well Down Under. He's been a finalist here five times, including each of the last two years...and lost them all to either Federer or Djokovic (until he played Milos Raonic at Wimbledon last year, every Grand Slam final of his career had been against either Federer or Djokovic).
You'd have to figure that Murphy's Law dictates he's eventually got to win this title. And I think this is his best opportunity to do it. Yes, the Federer quarterfinal is a tough draw, and so is Wawrinka (who's developed quite a reputation as a big-match performer) in the semi. But if he gets through both of those or, better yet, there's an upset along the way, Murray's set up really well for the final.
Although, this has traditionally been Novak Djokovic's best Grand Slam, and the six-time champ has won the title in five of the last six years. His only loss in Australia since 2011 was that great quarterfinal against Wawrinka in 2014 (that went 9-7 in the fifth). As if he wasn't already a tough enough out, Djokovic will benefit from a much easier draw than any of the other top contenders.
That includes Milos Raonic, who is somehow ranked third in the world. Except he'll have to deal with that other dangerous floater I haven't mentioned yet. Rafael Nadal is still in the top 10, but barely. He's seeded ninth and sitting right there in Raonic's section.
A Murray-Djokovic rematch wouldn't surprise that many people, and I don't think a Serena Williams-Angelique Kerber rematch would either. Who would've thought at this time last year what Angelique Kerber's 2016 would be like. She saved off a match point in the first round, only to go win the tournament, upsetting Serena in the final, then making the finals of Wimbledon, winning the US Open, and becoming No. 1. The question is what does she do for an encore in 2017? (It's been two weeks, and it's still weird to type that!)
Women's tennis doesn't have quite the same star power as the men's game right now. Maria Sharapova's suspension doesn't expire until April, Victoria Azarenka hasn't returned from having a baby yet, and who knows what's up with Caroline Wozniacki? She's here and seeded 17th, but it seems like the US Open is the only Grand Slam she ever makes any noise at whatsoever. A healthy Wozinacki that's playing well is one of the best players in the world, though.
With all that being said, who can stop a Kerber-Serena rematch? Well, frankly, I think Kerber's road is much straighter than Serena's. Her biggest obstacle, Halep, has already been knocked out.. Sure Venus Williams and Garbine Muguruza and Julia Goerges (who's very similar to Wozniacki in that she can beat anybody or lose in the second round just as easily) are there, but I'd be very surprised if Kerber doesn't return to the final.
Serena, on the other hand, will have her work cut out for her. She's still the best player in the bottom half of the draw, but will need to be on her game. Because there's a lot of talent in her half of the draw, and I think someone is poised for a breakout.
And if I had to put my money somewhere, it would be on one of the Czechs. Lucie Safarova, the 2015 French Open finalist, could potentially face Serena in the second round, but she's not the one I'm worried about. That would be fifth-seeded Karolina Pliskova, the US Open finalist, and sixth-seeded Dominika Cibulkova, who's actually Slovakian. Cibulkova has been a finalist here (in 2014) and won the year-end tour championship last season. I think we're going to see her make a run. And that's going to be a great quarterfinal if the seeds hold and she faces Serena.
For some reason, I think Cibulkova will beat Serena, then knock off Pliskova in the semis. And, while she's at it, I see her knocking off Kerber for the title. I don't know why. I just like the way her draw sets up, and I think she carries that momentum from last year into the tournament.
This is the Australian Open, though, and strange things have been known to happen at the Australian Open. It's on the other side of the world, so they're playing it in the middle of summer in brutal heat. That usually comes into play. As does the fact that it's the beginning of the season. For some players, in fact, the Australian Open is their first tournament of the year. That's why we see unexpected things take place and surprise names emerge.
As we saw last year, though, those surprise names aren't necessarily surprises. The Australian Open sometimes gives us a hint about the year we have in store. Just ask Angelique Kerber.
No comments:
Post a Comment