I'll be honest. I didn't watch a second of the NFL preseason. I don't care about preseason football under normal circumstances, but this year with the Olympics taking up all of my attention for most of August, I completely didn't even realize the preseason was starting until they had that whole big thing about the melted paint on the turf at the Hall of Fame Game.
That doesn't mean I've been completely oblivious to what's going on in the NFL, though. Quarterback drama is running rampant. Teddy Bridgewater and Tony Romo are out injured, seriously derailing the playoff hopes of the Vikings and Cowboys. And who had Trevor Siemian pegged as Denver's starter when they begin their title defense on Thursday night?
In each of the last four seasons, New England and Denver have received the two AFC playoff byes, and in three of those four years, one or the other went to the Super Bowl. I think that changes in 2016. The last four years also represent the length of Peyton Manning's tenure in Denver. The Broncos' success during that span wasn't a coincidence. But with a new era starting and a much more competitive AFC West, I'm not even sure Denver wins the division. New England will still probably win the AFC East, but the Brady suspension is obviously going to dominate much of the conversation about the Patriots over the first month of the season.
Since I'm already on the Patriots, let's start in the AFC East. Yes, they're obviously going to be a much different team without Tom Brady, but if any team can weather a loss like that, it's the Patriots. Remember the year he tore his ACL in the season opener? They still went 11-5. This is only four games, three of which are at home, and two of which are in the division. They'll lose the opener in Arizona, but I can easily see the Patriots winning two of those three home games (Houston will be tough).
If somebody else has a chance of winning the AFC East, it might be the Jets. They've definitely gotten better offensively with Matt Forte. Will their offense be good enough to take some of the pressure of their first-rate defense? If it is, they've got a real shot at a wild card. Same thing with the Bills. Buffalo is the only team in the NFL that hasn't made the playoffs this century, and I see that streak continuing for at least another year. The Bills simply aren't as good as some of the other teams in the AFC. Neither is Miami. Like I said, the AFC East is still New England's division to lose. Not because of how good the Patriots are, but because of how little competition the other three offer. Tom Brady missing a month doesn't change that.
Over in the AFC North, it's the opposite problem. There are three really good teams, and Cleveland isn't the pushover they used to be. In fact, with the hiring of Hue Jackson as coach and finally freeing themselves of the scourge known as Johnny Manzeil, the Browns look like they're going to be much more competitive this season. Although, that probably won't lift them out of last place. Simply because the rest of the division is so strong.
The Bengals know they blew a golden opportunity last year, and the playoff misfortunes have to be getting in their heads. How else can you explain that complete mental breakdown at the end of the wild card game last year? Regardless, expect to see Cincinnati in the playoffs again, either as the division champs or a wild card. I think wild card is more likely, though. Because, on paper, Pittsburgh is the best team in the AFC heading into the season. The Steelers have a seasoned quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, a star running back in Le'Veon Bell, a first-rate defense, and one of the best players in the game in Antonio Brown. Unless injuries creep in, the Steelers sure look like they'll be playing deep into January. I wish I could say the same about Baltimore, but this division is starting to pass the Ravens by. They're better than the 5-11 they were last season, but they're the third-best team in this division at best.
Houston. That's the team that could be a real sleeper contender in the AFC. Brock Osweiler was Peyton Manning's preordained successor in Denver. But he leaves the Broncos at the altar and signs that massive free agent deal with the Texans, filling their one deficiency that was exposed big time in that embarrassing playoff loss to Kansas City. Now with Osweiler running the offense and that outstanding J.J. Watt-led defense, Houston is going to win a lot of games in 2016.
And don't just assume Indianapolis will automatically finish second in the AFC South, either. Because Jacksonville, after years where they made you wonder whether you were watching an NFL squad or a college team, is no longer a laughingstock. The Jaguars' slow build will pay off this season. Not with a playoff berth, but at least with respectability. That same respectability that the Titans are still about two years away from. Tennessee will at least be better in Marcus Mariota's second season.
Which brings me to the AFC West. It's no longer the exclusive domain of the Denver Broncos. In fact, I've got this division tabbed as the most wide-open in football. The Broncos won the Super Bowl last year, the Chiefs made the playoffs, the Raiders are much-improved, and the Chargers were in every game despite their record.
On paper, Kansas City's gotta be the AFC West favorites. The Chiefs have very few flaws and return mostly in tact a squad that won 11 straight games before finally being stopped by the Patriots in the divisional playoffs. They don't have that brutal start this year, so don't be surprised to see Kansas City gain some early momentum. I'm not saying to count the Broncos out. They won the Super Bowl because of that defense, which is still the lifeblood of the team in year one post-Peyton. Manning won them the Super Bowl they got him for, but he did it in the dreaded "game manager" role. And that's all they need Trevor Siemian to be. Von Miller and Co. can take care of winning the games.
Meanwhile, the Raiders have a good thing going. On the field at least. Jack Del Rio's biggest challenge will be keeping the franchise's off-the-field problems and the questions about where they're going to play from being distractions. Because, for the first time in a long time, the Raiders look like a potential playoff team. Just like the "will they or won't they?" really took its toll on the Chargers last season. San Diego's not a 4-12 team. They're much better than that. Maybe a playoff push will give the Spanos family and the city the impetus to get a stadium deal done and keep the Chargers where they belong.
So, my AFC playoff teams are going to look very familiar. It's the same six that made the playoffs last season. I know the numbers don't favor that actually happening, but I still think that they're the six best teams in the AFC. In the wild card games, New England beats Denver and Cincinnati upsets Kansas City. The Steelers then beat the Bengals, while the Texans knock off the Patriots, with Pittsburgh winning the AFC title game to prevent Houston from becoming the first team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium.
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