US Wide Open

If there was ever a year where the US Open was more wide-open, I don't remember it.  But, because of injuries or other reasons, the story's more about who's not here and who looks vulnerable.  With three quarters of the Big Three battling injuries, the men's tournament certainly looks like it's anybody's for the taking.  On the women's side meanwhile, we've had three different winners in the first three Grand Slams, and Monica Puig is coming off a surprise Olympic gold, so it really is anybody's to take there, as well.

Let's start with the men.  Roger Federer is injured and not playing, which is weird in its own right.  Rafael Nadal only came back for the Olympics after missing a couple months with the injury that forced him to withdraw from the French Open mid-tournament.  Even Novak Djokovic has been dealing with an injury.  He'd been playing with a hurt wrist for a while, and it's probably at least part of the reason he was upset at Wimbledon.  Djokovic lost in the first round at the Olympics, a tournament he probably wouldn't have even played if he already had an Olympic medal.

So, that would lead you to think this tournament is Andy Murray's to lose.  Murray's clearly been the best player on tour this summer, winning his second Wimbledon title and defending his Olympic gold.  He'll justifiably head into the US Open as the favorite.  And if Murray's on his game (which he has been for the last couple of months), he'll definitely be very tough to beat.

In the Olympic gold medal match, it was Juan Martin Del Porto, he who vanquished Djokovic, that took on Murray.  Del Potro now has an Olympic silver to go along with his bronze from London (when he also beat Djokovic).  The 2009 US Open champ, Del Po has always shown that he can play with the big boys.  He's always injured, though.  Del Potro has been healthy so far this summer, so you've got to view him as a contender, too.

Unfortunately, Murray-Del Potro can't be the final here.  It's a tantalizing semifinal, though.  Del Potro might be unseeded, but he's not your typical unseeded player.  He beat Wawrinka at Wimbledon and inherited the seed.  He beat Djokovic at the Olympics and inherited the seed.  At the US Open, he doesn't really have to deal with any top players until a potential quarterfinal with Wawrikina, who I see losing to Fernando Verdasco in the first round.  Murray, meanwhile, has to deal with Grigor Dimitrov and Kei Nishikori or Ivo Karlovic just to get to Del Potro in the semis.

Because the top two contenders are in the bottom half, things actually worked out pretty well for Djokovic and Nadal in the draw.  The two of them have had some epic US Open battles in recent years, including those memorable finals.  Except they're potentially gonna have to deal with Marin Cilic (Djokovic) and Milos Raonic (Nadal) in the quarters.  Cilic is probably excited about that possible matchup with Djokovic after he was embarrassed by the world No. 1 in last year's semifinals.  And just ask Roger Federer about how good Milos Raonic is.  This guy's a star in the making, and, after making the finals at Wimbledon, I can easily see him hoisting the trophy in New York.

I don't see Raonic winning his first Grand Slam title here, though.  Not with the way Andy Murray's been playing.  Just like in 2012, I think he follows up Olympic gold with a US Open crown.

What a difference a year makes when it comes to storylines.  Last year, it was all about Serena Williams going for the Grand Slam.  She was, of course, upset in the semifinals by Roberta Vinci, who fell to countrywoman Flavia Pennetta in the final.  Pennetta retired immediately after winning her only Grand Slam title and won't be defending her crown.

Pennetta's US Open title started a string of four different Grand Slam winners for the women.  The only constant has been Serena in the finals.  But she lost early in the Olympics, which was definitely out of character.  In 2012, she won Wimbledon, the Olympics and the US Open all in a row.  She was in top form four years ago.  I can't say she is this year.  But she's still Serena.  And if she is on her game, she's still the one to beat.

However, Angelique Kerber did that at the Australian Open, and she also reached the Wimbledon final, where she lost to Serena.  Kerber is also the Olympic silver medalist.  Her first Grand Slam breakthrough came in 2011, when she made the semis here.  Kerber hasn't been past the fourth round since, but I see that changing.  If she goes out before the quarterfinals, it'll be a major upset.  Kerber should go much further than that, though.

Don't be surprised to see Puig carry the momentum from her Olympic gold (the first ever for a Puerto Rican) into the US Wide Open.  Same thing with Madison Keys.  She finished fourth in Rio and reached the round of 16 at each of the first three Grand Slams this year.  The only potential roadblock for Keys is Caroline Wozniacki, who always does one of two things at the US Open--lose early or make a deep run.  She's unseeded this year, which takes some of the pressure off, so don't be surprised if it's the latter.

Meanwhile, you know Serena wants to make up for last year.  Winning the 2016 US Open will never make up for last year's semifinal loss when she was trying to finish off the Grand Slam.  But it would be No. 23, breaking the tie with Steffi Graf and moving her within one of Margaret Court's all-time record.  She's twice followed up a Wimbledon win with a US Open victory.  Will she make it three?

Despite all of her ups and downs this year, Serena Williams is still the player to beat in any Grand Slam tournament she enters.  That's no different here.  I've got her and Kerber facing off in the rubber match.  Kerber won in Australia.  Serena won at Wimbledon.  Who wins in New York?  Give me the woman who's made it to at least the semis in each of the last seven times she's played here and is looking for her fourth title in five years.  Of course, that one loss since the 2011 final, is the one she'd like to have back.

It's also worth noting that this US Open is going to be much different than any before.  The retractable roof on Arthur Ashe Stadium has been installed and is fully operational, so there will be no more rain delays on the main court.  I noticed how much of a difference it was last year with just the superstructure in place even compared to 2014.  I wonder how much more of an impact the full roof will have.

There's also a new Grandstand.  Although, I'm going to miss the old one.  So many great matches took place on that court over the years.  I'll have to check out this new version, but it's not going to have that same ambiance.  I'm sure it'll create plenty of memories of its own, though.