I saw something the other day about Jaromir Jagr and projecting how good his stats would be if he hadn't had so many interruptions during his career. It's a fair question. He's third all-time in both goals and points, but had all or part of five different seasons taken away for various reasons. Where would Jagr ranked had he played a full NHL season in each of those years?
He's the only player old enough to have endured all three NHL lockouts. He lost a half-season during the original lockout in 1994-95, then, like all of us, suffered through the lockout that cancelled the entire 2004-05 season. As if that wasn't enough, he was there for Lockout 2.0 in 2012-13, too. Lockout 2.0 came after his one season with the Flyers, which followed a three-year stint in the KHL. So, adding it all up, Jagr has missed the equivalent of five full seasons during his NHL career (which is still 21 years long).
It's obviously an inexact science, but we can probably figure this out using some rough estimates. Jagr went back to his Czech team during the 1994-95 lockout and scored 17 goals in 18 games. He then played all 48 games for the Penguins and finished with 70 points (32 goals, 38 assists). If he scored at the same rate over the course of a whole 82-game season, that would bring him up to 119 points (54 goals, 65 assists).
For 2004-05, it's tougher. He played 49 games overseas that season, so those are the only numbers I have to work with. He had 27 goals and 39 assists in those 49 games. Averaging those totals over 82 games gives us 45 goals and 65 assists (110 points).
The missed numbers during the 2012-13 season are the easiest to figure out. Jagr returned to HC Kladno in the Czech Republic for the first part of that season and played 34 games, the exact number chopped off the NHL schedule. That means we can simply add his Kladno numbers (24 goals, 33 assists, 57 points) to what he did in Dallas and Boston that season (16 goals, 19 assists, 35 points).
So, adding in just the estimated numbers from the two missing half-seasons and the missing whole 2004-05 campaign, Jagr would have 91 more goals, 125 more assists and 216 more points. That would bring his career numbers to 833 goals, 1230 assists and 2063 points. He still doesn't touch Gretzky in assists or points, but would be only 61 goals behind the Great One. And we haven't even factored in his time in Russia yet.
Speaking of his time in Russia, Jagr played three seasons for Avangard Omsk from 2008-09 to 2010-11. The KHL season is roughly 50 games, so again we're doing some adjusting based on his goals/points per game. In 2008-09, he had a line of 25-28-53 in 55 games. Averaging that out over 82 games, Jagr's line would be 37-42-79. In 2009-10, it was 22-20-42 over 51 games. That averages out to 35-32-67 (an off year by Jagr standards). During his final season in Russia, Jagr had 19-31-50 in 49 games. That's obviously just over a point a game. Overall, the averages came out to 31-52-83.
If those numbers had been put up in the NHL instead of the KHL, Jagr would be the NHL's all-time leading goal scorer. Using those per-game numbers, he'd have 103 goals, 126 assists and 229 points over the course of 82 games. And taking that, along with the lockout adjustments, Jagr would have career totals of 936 goals (44 more than Gretzky), 1356 assists and 2292 points.
This exercise was completely hypothetical, of course. And I didn't take into account things like injuries. But even accounting for that margin of error, it's clear that Jagr would be pretty close to the NHL's all-time record for goals (if he didn't already have it) if he hadn't had those five seasons taken away (although, three of them were by choice).
Of course, Jagr also has plenty of time to add to his existing totals. We have no idea how much longer he plans to keep playing, but there are still a few teams he hasn't played for yet, so he's gotta try to get those out of the way before he hangs it up. Besides, why quit now? He's still performing at a high level, which is remarkable for a guy drafted in 1990 who made his NHL debut in 1991. He's skating against guys who are literally half his age!
Jaromir Jagr is never going to claim a place alongside the Holy Trinity of Gretzky, Howe and Orr. But there's no doubting his greatness either. And I don't think there's any argument that he's the greatest European player in NHL history.
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