Another Group of Death

Is there some sort of rule I don't know about where the U.S. automatically has to be placed into the toughest group possible in any sort of soccer tournament?  Or is this just FIFA's way of getting back as us for exposing the whole bribery thing?  Either way, we already knew it was going to be difficult for the U.S. to win the special Copa America Centenario on home soil.  Now it seems downright impossible.

We all knew that the Copa America Centenario was going to be a special event when they first announced it.  The United States and Mexico don't really gain much from playing only CONCACAF teams.  Everyone expects them to win, so any loss is a shocker.  And it'll negatively affect them.  Likewise, there are only 10 South American teams.  They probably get sick of playing each other.  It's nice for them to mix things up a little bit too, and to get the U.S. and Mexico in involved determines a true regional champion.  Even if it is a special, one-time-only event.

Having the event in the United States was a very smart idea, too.  Tons of major cities with big football stadiums that they'll be able to fill.  And the passionate fan bases of each national team will follow their teams and go to the games.

As is the case with all host nations in FIFA tournaments, the United States was seeded and automatically placed in Group A.  They also seeded Mexico, Brazil and Argentina.  No problems here.  That figured to be the most logical thing to do even before the draw was made.  The different pots for the draw were broken down logically, too.  The other four CONCACAF teams in one pot, the four best CONMEBOL teams in another, and the other four CONMEBOLs in the last group.

With Colombia, Chile, Uruguay and Ecuador all together in one pot, you knew that there were going to be at least one tough game for each of the four top seeds.  And you also knew that whoever drew Costa Rica wasn't going to be too happy, either.  Every soccer tournament has a "Group of Death," and whichever group Costa Rica ended up in would inevitably have that distinction.

So what do you know?  Who ends up drawing Costa Rica?  Well, that would be the hosts.  But not only is the highest-ranked unseeded CONCACAF team there, so is Colombia, the No. 8 team in the world.  And Paraguay, which is the best team in that second group from CONMEBOL.  Meanwhile, Brazil's Group B includes Ecuador, Haiti and Peru.  Mexico will have a tough time with Uruguay in Group C, but they're joined by a Jamaican side that's not very strong and Venezuela, the lowest-ranked team in the entire tournament.  Meanwhile, Group D is the second strongest behind Group A.  The opening game will be a rematch of the 2015 Copa America final between Argentina (No. 2 in the world) and Chile (No. 5).  Even if Panama and Bolivia aren't as strong, that game alone brings Group D up.

Argentina-Chile will be at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, the same venue where a disappointing Super Bowl 50 was held.  The opening game of the tournament between the USA and Colombia will also be there.  So will a quarterfinal between the winner of Group C and the Group D runner-up, so it'll likely be Mexico or Uruguay against Argentina or Chile.  Basically, a venue pass (which is the only type of tickets you're able to buy right now) for Santa Clara is a pretty good deal.

Looking at the groups, Group A is the only one where the two quarterfinalists don't seem to be predetermined.  On paper, it'd be the United States and Colombia, but we all saw in the 2014 World Cup how dangerous Costa Rica can be.  Although, things usually don't go well for Costa Rica when they play their game at the U.S. in World Cup qualifying, so I'm not too  worried about that game.  I think the two biggest games, actually, will be the USA-Colombia opener and the final game between Colombia and Costa Rica.  The Americans play their two toughest games first, so, especially if they can beat Colombia, they could be in really good shape heading into the Paraguay game.  (That's the reverse of the World Cup, where the final game against Germany was the toughest one, but they already had the win over Ghana and the tie with Portugal.)

When the World Cup was in the United States in 1994, the U.S. was nowhere near as good as it is now, but got a win over Colombia in the second game, which is the reason they advanced into the knockout round.  This time, it's the opening game.  If you include the excitement of playing at home and the roar of that sellout crowd, I really like the American chances in that one.  Either way, I think the U.S. advances, but I definitely think at least a draw against Colombia is possible.  (If the U.S. finishes second in the group, their quarterfinal against likely Brazil is at Giants Stadium, so I'm actually kinda hoping for that.)

It's still way too early to make my predictions for the tournament,  I don't like the fact that the United States is in the Group of Death once again, but that might end up being a good thing in the long run.  And, frankly, winning this tournament seemed like a long shot anyway.  Not with Argentina, Brazil and Chile in the mix.  How do the U.S. and Mexico stack up against the true heavyweights of the region?  That's going to be the real test.