The First-Year Candidates

My Baseball Hall of Fame "vote" post will come out at its usual time right before the election results are announced.  But the ballot was unveiled today, and it includes 15 newcomers to go along with the 17 holdover candidates from last year.  And as usual, there are some names on there that make you question who actually considers him a Hall of Famer.  Then there's Ken Griffey, Jr. and Trevor Hoffman.

At voting time, I reveal the 10 that I would put on my ballot if I actually had one.  Today I'm gonna take a different tactic.  I'm going to rank the 15 newcomers in order of likelihood that they'll still be on the ballot next year.  And, trust me, there's a lot of one-and-dones on this list.

Actually, I'm only going to rank 14 of the 15.  Ken Griffey, Jr. will not be on the 2017 Hall of Fame ballot.  For a very obvious reason.  He's going to be elected by a landslide.  Last year, Randy Johnson got 97 percent of the vote.  Junior's total will be in the same range as his former teammate's.  And he'll be the first player wearing a Mariners hat on his plaque in Cooperstown.

Now on to the other 14 guys (once again, they're ranked from most likely to least likely they'll stay on the ballot)...

1. Trevor Hoffman: He'll be on my ballot no question, but I think the voters will make him wait at least a year.  The second-best closer in history, he'll get in eventually.  It might not be until after Mariano Rivera gets in, though.

2. Jim Edmonds: Probably because he was never the best player on his own team, I feel like Jim Edmonds was overlooked throughout his career.  He'll probably get overlooked on the Hall of Fame ballot, too.  But he shouldn't.  Because Jim Edmonds was one of the best, if not THE best, center fielders in the game for most of his 17 years in the Majors.  He even had two 40-home run seasons.

3. Mike Lowell: Won World Series with the Marlins and Red Sox.  He was so good in the 2007 World Series that he was named MVP in Boston's sweep of Colorado.  There's no chance Lowell will ever get elected, and I'm not even sure he'll get enough votes to stay on the ballot.  But there's going to be a couple sentimental New England writers who put his name down.

4. Billy Wagner: Billy Wagner certainly doesn't deserve to get a vote over Trevor Hoffman or Lee Smith.  Or the three starters on the ballot.  But I wouldn't begrudge a voter for tossing Wagner a bone, if only so that his name stays on the ballot and he can get a closer look when some of the congestion clears up.

5. Garret Anderson: I've never actually thought of Garret Anderson as a Hall of Famer.  I put him in the same category as a Fred McGriff.  But compared to the rest of the first-year-eligible guys, he stands out as one of the best.  He's still the only guy to win the Home Run Derby and All-Star MVP in the same season.

6. Jason Kendall: Here's where we get to the cut off.  Will Jason Kendall get enough votes to stay on the ballot?  Probably not, but he'll definitely get some.  If we were ranking the best catchers of the late 90s/early 2000s, he'd be third behind Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza.

7. Troy Glaus: If Troy Glaus had been able to stay healthy, his Hall of Fame case would be much stronger.  As it is, he's best-known for being MVP of that great seven-game Angels-Giants World Series in 2002 where he out-performed Barry Bonds in Anaheim's first (and only) championship season.

8. Mike Hampton: We've officially run out of starting pitchers.  After voting in five over the last two elections, Hampton's the only new one on this year's ballot...and he doesn't deserve a vote over any of the three starters returning from last year.  Nevertheless, Hampton is more Hall of Fame-worthy than some of the other first-year candidates who'll join him in the under-5 percent crowd.

9. Mike Sweeney: There's probably a couple nostalgic Kansas City writers who'll celebrate the Royals' World Series victory by casting a Hall of Fame vote for Mike Sweeney.  Unfortunately, that won't be enough for him to get the 5 percent he needs to stay on the ballot.

10. David Eckstein: My guess is that he's only on the Hall of Fame ballot because he won the World Series twice and was World Series MVP in 2006.  But if winning World Series MVP makes you a Hall of Famer, Pat Borders would already have a plaque in Cooperstown.

11. Luis Castillo: When you're best remembered for dropping a popup that went down as a walk-off error, it's not good.  Maybe he gets one vote to match his jersey number.

12. Randy Winn: Umm, yeah.  Randy Winn was probably the best player in the 10-year history of the Tampa Bay "Devil" Rays before they dropped the Devil and got good.  I remember two things about Randy Winn: Erine Harwell announced his at-bat during the 2005 All-Star Game in Detroit, and he hit two homers in a game to drive in every run in a win during the three months he played for the Yankees.

13. Brad Ausmus: Unless the Tigers pull a Giants and win three of the next five World Series (they won't), Ausmus isn't coming close to getting in as a manager, either.  At least he won't have to worry about missing any games for the induction ceremony.

14. Mark Grudzielanek: Thank you for playing.  Wouldn't even get into the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals Hall of Fame.  Although, somebody did throw David Segui a Hall of Fame vote once, so you never know.

Hoffman's the only lock to return to the ballot in 2017...that is if he doesn't get elected alongside Griffey.  While I think Edmonds, Lowell and Wagner might be able to secure enough votes to stick around, as well, I wouldn't be surprised to see Hoffman be the only one of the 14 to see a second year on the ballot.