Unlike the last two days, there's very little suspense heading into Thursday's announcement of the AL and NL MVP's. Bryce Harper was the best player in the National League this season by a wide margin. The only question about Thursday's vote is whether or not it'll be unanimous. Same thing in the American League. Mike Trout will get some first-place votes because he's Mike Trout. But his regular Troutian season pales in comparison to what Josh Donaldson did in Toronto.
When the Blue Jays traded for Donaldson last winter, it was the start of everything that culminated in a trip to the ALCS. They put him in the 2-hole, in front of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, setting up the most fearsome 2-3-4 in all of baseball. And because Bautista and Encarnacion were behind him, Donaldson didn't draw an intentional walk all year. They pitched to him, and he put up ridiculous numbers. He also played sensational defense at third base. Donaldson was the MVP front-runner all year. And with good reason.
Mike Trout, meanwhile, continued to prove why he's perhaps the best all-around player in baseball. This is his fourth season, and his previous three MVP finishes were second-second-first. Sabermetric geeks love Mike Trout and his WAR so much that he's going to be an MVP candidate from here to eternity. And it easy to take Trout's numbers for granted. But there also has to be a point where Mike Trout and his greatness are taken with a grain of salt, too. Is Mike Trout the MVP simply because he did what he usually does? This year, I'd have to say the answer is "No!" Not only was Donaldson's season more impressive, the Blue Jays made the playoffs and the Angels didn't. Donaldson has to get the nod.
It was awesome to see Lorenzo Cain's name come up as a "finalist," which is code for he's the guy who finished a distant third in the voting. Last year's ALCS was his coming-out party, but boy, did Cain back it up in 2015! He hit third for the World Series champions (yes, I know the voting is done prior to the start of the postseason) and set career-highs with a .307 average, 16 homers, 34 doubles, 72 RBIs and 101 runs scored, as Kansas City finished with the best record in the American League. He's obviously not going to win over Donaldson, nor is he going to finish second ahead of Trout, but it's nice to see a guy like Lorenzo Cain getting some recognition.
Unless a pitcher has a truly spectacular season the way Justin Verlander did a few years ago or Clayton Kershaw did last season, he's not going to be in the MVP conversation. And, obviously, he's not a finalist, but Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel does deserve some MVP love, too. With 30 voters each going 10-deep, you're going to see plenty of players with AL MVP votes, especially once you get past those four. Some of the guys I would've considered include Prince Fielder, Chris Davis, Mark Teixeira, Kendrys Morales, Albert Pujols, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Altuve, Jose Bautista, Manny Machado, Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler.
As for my AL MVP "vote," Donaldson is a clear No. 1, with Trout a clear No. 2. I've got Keuchel over Cain for the 3-spot, with Prince fifth. Rounding out my 10: Chris Davis, Kendrys Morales, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Teixeira, Manny Machado.
Over in the National League, they started engraving Bryce Harper's name on the trophy sometime in mid-August. Bryce Harper was far-and-away the best player in baseball this season. It wasn't even close. Harper has his haters, but consider for a second that the guy is still just 22, and his fourth Major League season was just a glimpse of why the Nationals drafted him No. 1 overall a few years ago. He hit .330 with 42 home runs, drove in 99, walked 124 times, and scored 118 runs. The last player to put together a season like that at such a young age? Try nobody! The previous youngest was some guy named Ruth, who did it when he was 25.
The Nationals, who were christened as National League champions in Spring Training, didn't even make the playoffs. It wasn't Bryce Harper's fault. And you can't use the fact that Washington missed the postseason against him. Because neither did the teams of the other two finalists--Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt and the Reds' Joey Votto.
Goldschmidt is kind of turning into a National League version of Mike Trout. So consistently awesome--both offensively and defensively--that you almost take it for granted. He was runner-up behind Andrew McCutchen in 2013, and I suspect he is again this season. Joey Votto's a finalist because he had the hitter's equivalent of Jake Arrieta's second half. It was historic. To the tune of a .362 average, .535 on-base percentage and .617 slugging percentage after the All-Star Break. Problem is, he did it for a Reds team that was long out of the race by that point.
Now for the elephant in the room--Yoenis Cespedes. There were a lot of people making "Cespedes for MVP" claims for the ridiculous two months he had with the Mets. Does Cespedes deserve to have some votes thrown his way? Absolutely! But it's asinine to suggest that he deserved to be considered on the same level as Harper. Or even Goldschmidt and Votto, for that matter. Cespedes had an incredible two months. The Mets don't make the playoffs, let alone the World Series, without him. But he was in the National League for two months! He won a freakin' AL Gold Glove! Cespedes played 50-something games for the Mets. That's not enough of a body of work. Especially when you're comparing him against guys who played a whole season in the NL.
One of the big gripes Harold Reynolds had on the MLB Network show where they announced the finalists was that Harper, Goldschmidt and Votto all ended up out of the playoffs. I don't think being on a playoff team should be a requirement, but I don't begrudge voters who want to see their MVPs in the postseason. So, if you want somebody from a playoff team to consider, how about the Cubs' Anthony Rizzo. Chicago went 3-for-3 in the first three awards. We know they're not gonna make it 4-for-4. But Rizzo earned every MVP vote he got (of which I'm guessing there were plenty). He was third in the league with 101 RBIs, which went along nicely with 31 homers, 38 doubles and 94 runs scored.
Another Cub, Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta, wouldn't be a bad guy to consider, either. Neither would Zack Greinke, who easily could've won the Cy Young instead. There are also a pair of Colorado Rockies who put together solid seasons for a terrible team--Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez. Same thing with Dee Gordon, the NL leader in both hits and average, and the Major League leader in stolen bases.
There's definitely a precipitous drop-off between Bryce Harper and the Field. If it's not a unanimous vote, it'll come pretty close. The rest of my "ballot" would look this way: Rizzo, Goldschmidt, Cespedes, Votto, Greinke, Gordon, Arenado, Arrieta, Gonzalez.
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