It's on days like this that I really hate that 16-hour time difference between New York and Australia. They're a day and a half ahead of us, which means a lot that happens there starts at weird times here. Take the Australian Open for example. It's Sunday night in New York, but it's Monday afternoon in Australia, and this year's first Grand Slam is already well underway.
My initial Australian Open picks have already had to be amended. That's what happens when play starts in primetime the night before, even though it's really 11:00 in the morning. The main change I have to make is my Ana Ivanovic-Sabine Lisicki quarterfinal. That ain't happening. But, for the most part, all of the favorites are still alive, and the 2015 Aussie Open is still you, so there's still plenty of time to dissect the field and pick a pair of winners.
Li Na won the women's tournament last year and definitely won't defend her title. She retired right before Wimbledon last year. Li was also a finalist here in 2013, so she absolutely would've been one of the favorites if she was in the draw. Without Li around, I think "favorite" status has to fall to (who else?) Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova. But Australia is always the Grand Slam where we're most likely to see a surprise or two, and the year's breakout performer usually reveals herself pretty early. Last year it was Eugenie Bouchard. She made the semis here and at Roland Garros before reaching the final at Wimbledon. The year before it was Sloane Stephens upsetting Serena and making the semifinals. Who will that breakthrough performer be? If I had to guess, I'd say either Andrea Petkovic, Karolina Pliskova or Yaroslava Shvedova.
Serena and Maria might be the two favorites for the title, but they're by no means the only contenders. Petra Kvitova won her second Wimbledon last year and is ranked No. 4, while Simona Halep can take over the No. 1 ranking if she wins her first Grand Slam title. Then there's US Open finalist Caroline Wozniacki, who seems to finally have gotten her game back, and Aggie Radwanska. They're currently the two best players in the women's game who've never won a Slam. And lest we forget Victoria Azarenka, the winner here in 2012 and 2013. Because of injuries last year, her ranking has dropped so far that she's unseeded. And, as a result, Azarenka-Wozniacki will be a second round match!
Predicting the Australian Open is always tough because it's still early in the year and most of the top players are making their debuts. But I like the way both Serena and Woz ended last season, so I'll say they meet in the quarters. I'll say Flavia Pennetta beats both Radwanska and Kvitova en route to the semis, where she falls to Serena. In the bottom half of the bracket, I'm not taking the chalk. I've just got a feeling Genie Bouchard is going to beat Maria in the quarters. And since I had Lisicki in the semis, let's replace her with the third-seeded Halep. Either way, I've got Bouchard going one round further than she did last year and playing Serena in the final. In fact, I think Genie goes even further than that. She beats Serena for the title.
On the men's side, 2014 was a very interesting year. The Big Four only went 2-for-4. In fact, we had four different Grand Slam champions last year. Unfortunately, US Open champ Marin Cilic will miss the Australian Open. Stan Wawrinka, who upset both Djokovic and Nadal to win here last year, then joined with Roger to win Switzerland's first-ever Davis Cup title, is seeded fourth, and his quarterfinal opponent could be fifth-seeded Kei Nishikori, the US Open finalist.
As for the three guys we're used to winning the Grand Slams, Djokovic is ranked No. 1, and this has traditionally been his best Grand Slam. Meanwhile, Federer and Nadal are 2 and 3 and on a semifinal collision course. It's one of the most understated things about his greatness, but Roger has been to at least the semis in Australia every year since 2004. That's 11 straight years! He hasn't won an Australian Open title since 2010, though. Clay Boy, meanwhile, hasn't really played since his annual French Open win, sat out the US Open, and has flat out said that he's not one of the favorites here. Who am I to argue? He was a finalist here last year, though.
Regardless, the favorites in men's Grand Slam tournaments rarely change. Especially since the three of them automatically have to be in different sections of the draw. The open section is the Wawrinka-Nishikori quarter where the winner gets Djokovic.
Those with the chance to make some noise include eighth-seeded Milos Raonic, who might have to knock off Juan Martin Del Potro in the round of 16, then gets Djokovic in the quarters. Speaking of Djokovic and the quarters, the round before he gets there, he's set to take on John Isner, the only seeded American at No. 19. Lean times indeed. I also like Bernie Tomic, the new Aussie star, who has a chance to finally be the first hometown finalist since Lleyton Hewitt in 2005. Hewitt's still around, too. He's long removed from his days as a top player. But you've gotta love the fact he still plays his home Slam every year without fail. This is his 19th straight Australian Open appearance.
Among the top three, Federer probably has the toughest road to the semis. He'll have to face either Tommy Robredo or Ivo Karlovic in the round of 16 before a quarterfinal matchup against the winner of the great potential matchup between Andy Murray and Grigor Dimitrov. (Speaking of breakout candidates, this might be the year Dimitrov becomes known as more than just Mr. Sharapova.)
But this is a men's Grand Slam. Going against the chalk is generally a dumb idea. After all, the 2009 US Open won by Del Potro and the two last year are the only ones since that 2005 Australian Open that one of the Big Four didn't win. Hell, it's weird to see a Grand Slam final without at least one of them like we had at the US Open.
So, my semis are Djokovic vs. Wawrinka and, after upsetting Nadal in the quarters, Tomic vs. Federer. And, after their epic Wimbledon final last year, we get another Djokovic-Federer matchup. The result of which I think will be the same. Novak Djokovic wins another Australian Open.
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