One of the major changes in IOC President Thomas Bach's Olympic Agenda 2020 was moving from a sport-based to an event-based program, lifting the 28-sport limit while still keeping a maximum of 10,500 athletes and 310 events. Since there are 306 events on the schedule for Rio, that's not a lot of room for new ones. And that has a number of international federations freaking out. The reason? In order to make room for new events, old ones have to go, and everybody's worried that means they're going to be the sport whose program is reduced.
After the announcement came out, the speculation immediately started as to which events were on the chopping block. There were all kids of suggestions thrown out, predominately in track & field and swimming. The main reason these two sports were mentioned is because they're the ones with the most events. There are 47 events in track & field, as well as 32 in swimming (34 if you include the two open water events). That's 79 of 306, which is more than 25 percent of the total.
Among the track & field events thought to be most in danger are the 200 meters, 10,000 meters, shot put, triple jump and at least one of the race walks. In swimming, I've heard the 50 meter freestyle, the 800/1500 freestyle and 4x200 freestyle relay mentioned.
Well you know what? They don't really need to worry at all. Track & field and swimming are two of the most popular sports on the Olympic program. Both attendance-wise and, probably more importantly, TV ratings-wise. That's why I think it's highly unlikely either of the Olympics' two marquee sports will see its program reduced in Tokyo (ditto for gymnastics, which also has a ton of events).
I'm not going to get into how stupid some of the proposed cuts are. OK, I will. Usain Bolt's the biggest star in the Olympic movement. The 200 meters is Usain Bolt's best event. Not happening. In 1896, the first-ever Olympic gold medal was awarded in the triple jump. The shot put also goes back to the 1896 Games. Dropping those two events, which have their Olympic history going all the way back to the beginning, just so there's room for something like skateboarding, which has no Olympic history whatsoever, would simply be asinine. And people just think the 10,000 meters is boring. That's why they wouldn't mind seeing it go away.
With that being said, would anyone really miss the men's 50 kilometer walk, which is the one track & field event I think actually is in danger? Probably not. Besides, it makes very little sense that there are two men's race walks, especially since there's only one for women. I've also always found it dumb that the marathon isn't the longest event on the track & field program.
Olympic swimming only has a 50 meter freestyle, but they have 50s in the other three strokes at the World Championships. There's also a men's 800 free and a women's 1500 free at the World Championships, but not the Olympics. FINA has actually been making a (so far unsuccessful) push to get those events added to the Olympics. Well, it sure looks like that definitely ain't happening now.
People within the IOC have indicated that swimming and gymnastics are particularly vulnerable because in those two sports, it's possible for an athlete to stockpile medals. Michael Phelps is the most decorated Olympian in history. In Beijing, he went a historic 8-for-8. There are 16 events in men's swimming, which means he won half of them. Same thing in gymnastics, where there are eight different events for men and it's possible for an individual to medal in every one of them.
They've identified the events that don't require event-specific training as ones they'd like eliminated. If you train for the 200 backstroke, you can obviously do the 100 backstroke. If you run the 100 meters, you can do the 200 meters. Just like a lot of the competitors in the 10,000 also do either the marathon or the 5000. If you do the all-around in gymnastics, you have to train for each of the individual events out of necessity.
But again, I don't think it's likely that any of the 79 events in track & field and swimming will actually be dropped from the Olympic program. Instead, I have an alternate proposal: capping the field. And this wouldn't just apply to those two sports. By instituting maximum field sizes in all sports (many of which already do), knowing that there will be a number of athletes who do multiple events, you're opening the door for enough additional competitors to accommodate a team sport or two (such as baseball and/or softball).
That wouldn't completely solve the problem. Let's, for a second, assume baseball and softball return, and squash is added (all you need is 64 athletes to have two 32-competitor squash tournaments). If no other events are dropped, those four would get the Olympics to 310, which is the designated magic number. So, it looks like the program is definitely going to be adjusted in some form. But I don't think it's going to be as radical as some in the track/swimming circles are worried it will be. At least I hope not. Because as much as the Olympics want to stay relevant to youngsters in the 21st Century, they can't forget where they came from either.
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