We've hit the final week of the NFL season, and 10 of the 12 playoff berths have already been wrapped up. All that's left is deciding the best bad team in the NFC South, which will actually get to host a wild card game next week, and determining the last AFC wild card spot. Four teams are mathematically still alive for it, but I'd be surprised if it doesn't go to either San Diego or Baltimore. We've also got three division championship games in store, and the only places that are locked in are the AFC's No. 1 (New England) and No. 4 (Indianapolis) seeds. So, there's a lot to play for across the NFL in Week 17.
As per usual, I'm going to divide the Week 17 picks into the games that matter and those that don't. I'll start with the meaningless contests...
Colts (10-5) at Titans (2-13): Indianapolis-Thanks to their loss and the Bengals' win last week, the Colts are locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC. The Titans, meanwhile, are playing for the No. 1 pick, which is theirs with a loss and a Tampa Bay win. Indianapolis doesn't care about this game, so you wonder how long Luck and Co. will play, but we saw a lot of Matt Hasselbeck last week during garbage time in the second half of that game in Dallas. Either way, the Colts don't want to go into the playoffs with two straight losses, especially if one is to the Titans. Besides, a Tennessee win costs them any shot at Marcus Mariota.
Jets (3-12) at Dolphins (8-7): Miami-Rex Ryan's final game as Jets head coach will be in Miami. I had high hopes for the Dolphins this season, but they're going to end up out of the playoffs once again. They can at least hang their heads on a 9-7 finish that includes a win over the Patriots. That's good towards building for next year. Come Monday, the Jets will have a lot of decisions to make regarding next year. But those decisions will be up to their new coach.
Bears (5-10) at Vikings (6-9): Chicago-Chicago has been one of my most disappointing teams in football this season. Coming into the year, I thought the Bears had the chance to be a playoff team. Now they're in a position where they have to win their finale just to get to 6-10 and avoid last place. (This while they see the Lions make the playoffs.) I think they do that, but I'm curious if, even if they do, this is Mark Trestman's last game as Chicago's head coach.
Bills (8-7) at Patriots (12-3): New England-How do you beat the Packers to put yourselves in a position to possibly sneak into the playoffs, then blow it by losing to the Raiders the following week? So is the case for the Buffalo Bills, who are now on 15 years and counting out of the playoffs. As for the Patriots, Denver's loss on Monday wrapped up the No. 1 seed, which makes me wonder how much Tom Brady we're going to see in the finale. It was only a couple years ago that Wes Welker got hurt in a meaningless Week 17 game and ended up missing the playoffs.
Eagles (9-6) at Giants (6-9): Giants-Oh, what a difference three weeks has made for the Philadelphia Eagles. They were 9-3, sitting in first place and riding high. Then they lose three in a row, including one in Washington, and see themselves playing a meaningless Week 17 game knowing that they won't be playing another. Basically the only thing the Eagles have to look forward to this week is Mark Sanchez's return to the Meadowlands. The Giants, meanwhile, have won three straight and can actually salvage a 7-9 record with a win. I'm not sure this is Tom Coughlin's last game after all. If I had to guess, I'd say it's not.
Saints (6-9) at Buccaneers (2-13): New Orleans-The Saints were our last hope for the NFC South. Then they go and lose to Atlanta, guaranteeing us a sub-.500 NFC South "champion." For Tampa Bay, things are easy. Lose and get the No. 1 pick. That pretty much means the Bucs will get a franchise quarterback in April.
Cowboys (11-4) at Redskins (4-11): Dallas-Hey, Dallas can't lose the Week 17 Sunday night NFC East championship game this year! The Redskins took care of business for them last week with that upset of the Eagles. Dallas locked up the division by crushing Indy the next day. The Cowboys can still technically get a bye or even the 1-seed, but they're pretty much locked into the 3. But since they play before the Lions-Packers game and both NFC West games, I'm fairly certain Dallas will play Romo the whole way and play for the win, even though they're probably not going to improve their seeding. Besides, they've got that perfect road record to play for. (Imagine if we get a Dallas-Green Bay wild card game next week, by the way.)
Raiders (3-12) at Broncos (11-4): Denver-They haven't clinched their bye yet, but the Broncos just need to beat the Raiders at home in order to do that. Peyton hasn't looked like Peyton lately, and there are a lot of questions about the Denver offense heading into the playoffs. (When's the last time you heard that?) That's why last week's loss might be a good thing. The Broncos need to play their starters the whole way this week, or they could theoretically end up playing next week, even if the only way that happens is if they lose and the Bengals win.
Now on to the games that have a bearing on playoff positioning...
Chargers (9-6) at Chiefs (8-7): San Diego-Both the Chargers and Chiefs made the playoffs last season, but only one can this year. If San Diego wins this game, it's easy. They get the last spot in the AFC. If Kansas City wins and Cleveland beats Baltimore, it's the Chiefs headed to the playoffs as the No. 6 seed. This is the type of game that the San Diego Chargers always seem to win. You never think about them, then you look up and they're in the playoffs. Look for that to happen again this year.
Browns (7-8) at Ravens (9-6): Baltimore-In 2012, three teams from the AFC North went to the playoffs. There's a chance it'll happen again this season if the Ravens get a little help from Kansas City. Because, as nice a story as the Browns were into mid-November, they very quickly reverted back to being the Browns. Now they've got their No. 3 quarterback going because Johnny Overrated almost had his head taken off last week and is on IR, and Brian Hoyer is probably getting shipped out of town even though he's the reason they were in contention for so long.
Jaguars (3-12) at Texans (8-7): Houston-I'm not sure if they actually wanted it, but the Jaguars cost themselves any shot at the No. 1 pick by beating the Titans last week. (It's amazing that Jacksonville has been this bad for this long, but has still never had the top pick in the draft.) The Texans are still in the mix for the AFC wild card, which is theirs if they win, the Chiefs beat the Chargers and the Ravens lose.
Panthers (6-8-1) at Falcons (6-9): Atlanta-We're guaranteed a sub-.500 division winner in the NFC South, where this Carolina-Atlanta matchup is a winner-take-all showdown for the No. 4 seed and a home game against a 12-4 or 11-5 team. Carolina started the season 3-2, went 0-6-1 over its next seven, and now enters an win-and-in situation on a three-game winning streak. Atlanta, meanwhile, has won a grand total of one game outside of its division (against Arizona of all teams), yet can still host a playoff game. Which I think it will. Because the Falcons will end up going a perfect 6-0 in the division.
Lions (11-4) at Packers (11-4): Green Bay-Nobody wants to go to Lambeau Field in January, so the Lions can do the rest of the NFC playoff teams a huge favor by winning there this week. And it's the Packers that need to win to clinch the division, because Detroit won the first game, so all they need is a tie. Either way, the loser knows that they most likely have to go to Dallas next week. I think that team's going to be the Lions. I'm just not sure they go into Green Bay and beat the Packers when the Packers have something to play for.
Cardinals (11-4) at 49ers (7-8): Arizona-Hopefully Drew Stanton is good to go next week. Because, as great as their story has been for most of the season, it looks like Arizona's going to be a wild card and head to Atlanta (where they already lost this season) or Charlotte. I agree with the decision not to rush Stanton back this week. Because the Cardinals' chances of winning the division aren't that good. Is this Jim Harbaugh's last game in San Francisco, though? That's the real question. I think "Yes." Harbaugh will be introduced as Michigan's new coach before the New Year.
Rams (6-9) at Seahawks (11-4): Seattle-For all the worry that the defending champs might not even make the playoffs, the Seahawks sure have silenced the doubters. All they need to do to wrap up home field for the second straight year is win and have Packers-Lions not be a tie (in which case Dallas can get the 1-seed). Seattle's not a fun place to have to go to in January, as the NFC playoff field learned last season. Well, they're going to have to try to beat the Seahawks in Seattle again if they want to go to the Super Bowl. Because the Seahawks are beating the Rams on Sunday.
Bengals (10-4-1) at Steelers (10-5): Pittsburgh-I'm glad the Bengals beat the Broncos last week. Because they deserve to be in the playoffs and it wouldn't have felt right to see them out. The Sunday nighter in Pittsburgh is still for the division, but it's good to know that Cincinnati isn't out entirely with a loss. There was a definite concern about that with the Denver, at Pittsburgh finish. And they took care of the primetime thing last week, too. That very well might've been a signature win for this bunch, which will go on the road to Indianapolis if they don't win this one. The game got away when they played the Steelers in Cincinnati four weeks ago. It'll be closer in Pittsburgh, but I think the result will be the same. Bengals-Colts next week.
Last Week: 8-8
Season: 152-87-1
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