All the experts agree the Kings are the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. I know this. I understand why. The Kings have been to at least the conference final in each of the last three years, the West was the overall better conference during the regular season, and LA has beaten better teams in the playoffs than the Rangers. And they have home ice. They deserve to be the favorite. But being the favorite doesn't mean unbeatable. And you can bet the Kings aren't taking the Rangers lightly.
They've both played a lot of games this postseason. The Kings have played the maximum 21. The Rangers have played 20. But they've also been off since Thursday and didn't have to play a Game 7 overtime. That rest might not make much of a difference, especially since there's two days off between Games 1 and 2. But I wouldn't be surprised if the Rangers take Game 1 (which they did in all three of their previous series) in LA based on the fact that they're actually the more rested team for once.
The Rangers have also played a lot less physical hockey than the Kings throughout the playoffs. Sure, they played hard-fought, seven-game series against Philly and Pittsburgh, and the Montreal series became much more hard-hitting as it went along. But the Flyers, Penguins and Canadiens aren't the Sharks or the Ducks. And they're certainly not the Blackhawks. Will that end up being a benefit? Or will it go the other way and have the change of style actually end up helping LA?
Both teams are confident, especially the Kings. I guess that's what comes with winning three Game 7's on the road. They've also got a crap load of playoff experience. This is the 11th of a possible 12 playoff rounds that they've reached over the past three seasons. Then there's their record in elimination games. Nothing fazes the Kings. It's virtually impossible to put this team away. Just ask the Sharks.
When it comes to talent, LA might have a slight edge. They've gotten production from practically everyone and Marian Gaborik is the top goal scorer in the playoffs. And you can bet Gaborik wants to take it to the Rangers. Then there's his linemate Anze Kopitar, who might be the best overall offensive player on either team. And Drew Doughty's an absolute beast. If the Kings win this series, he probably wins the Conn Smythe. If the Rangers thought going against PK Subban was tough, Doughty's going to crank that up a notch.
Surprisingly, the one area of concern for the Kings might be in goal. When they won the Cup in 2012, Jonathan Quick won the Conn Smythe. But this year, it has often seemed that they're winning games in spite of their goaltender rather than because of him. Take the Chicago series. Quick came up big when he needed to, but that series turned into "Who's going to score last?" Quick's simply not unbeatable like he was in 2012. Although, you can't take those three Game 7 road wins away from him.
In goal is where the Rangers might have an advantage. Henrik Lundqvist is arguably the best goalie in the game and he could absolutely be a difference-maker in this series. Take Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Final. Montreal wasn't getting anything by him that night. It's safe to say Game 5 was an anomaly. He's got the best goals against average, save percentage and record of any playoff goalie. King Henrik (or maybe we should call him Ranger Henrik for the next couple weeks) has already proven himself as one of the top big-game goalies in hockey. There's no one I would trust in net more.
One of the best things Alain Vigneaut did against Montreal is something Daryl Sutter has done well all season. He's gotten all four lines involved. That depth is one of the main reasons the Rangers beat the Canadiens, and I think it's one of the main reasons they have a real chance against the Kings. Nash and St. Louis have found their scoring touch, and the Rangers' top forwards throughout the entire postseason have been Richards, Kreider and Zuccarello. Ryan McDonagh's suddenly become a major player on offense, too. And, of course, there's Lundqvist in the back.
I think we'll get a good idea of who's going to win this series early on. Because these teams play two different styles, and one of them's going to have to win out. It's also highly unlikely that this series will be anywhere near as high-scoring as the Western Conference Final was. The Kings are going against Henrik Lundqvist this time. Not Corey Crawford (who's not the reason the Blackhawks lost).
There's probably one assumption that we can safely make with these two teams--Game 7. And when it comes to Game 7 all bets are off. Both teams thrive in that situation, but something will have to give. Well, I'll take Henrik Lundqvist in a winner-take-all game over anybody.
Besides, this ride can't end without a Cup. Not on the 20th anniversary of that memorable 1994 title run. Go ahead and accuse me of being a homer here (I'll admit it, I totally am), but I like the Rangers' chances here. Broadway 4, Hollywood 3.
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