Well Brazil, it's your time to shine. After all the delays and protests and problems, the World Cup is finally here. And the pressure on the home team is immense. Unlike the last World Cup, where the hope for South Africa was simply to advance, for Brazil this year it's title or bust. But in order to do that, they'll have to end the Spanish world dominance. Those two are the favorites, and I think many people are hoping we'll see them clash in the final at Rio's historic Maracana, just like they did at last year's Confederations Cup. But that's no guarantee. We've got plenty of teams and star players to entertain us over the next month. Oh, and we'll get to see a ton of gorgeous scenic shots of Brazil's beautiful countryside.
Group A: Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon
Brazil advancing out of the group stage isn't going to be a problem. The hosts are going to win Group A fairly easily. Their first big test will come in the Round of 16 against the second-place finisher in the loaded Group B (that could be the Brazil-Spain game, a few rounds early). That Croatia-Mexico game could decide the second advancer. Mexico is lucky to be in the World Cup, but got somewhat lucky with this group, because they could get out of it. El Tri's quarterfinal goal ain't happening though. I don't even think they make the knockout stage. Croatia's just a better team. Cameroon could pull an upset, but isn't going to advance.
Group B: Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia
I'd like someone from FIFA to explain the seeding process to me. How is the team that finished second in the last World Cup not among the top eight seeds? The rematch of the previous World Cup final shouldn't be the first game of the tournament! Anyway, the winner of that Spain-Netherlands game likely avoids Brazil. The loser will have to be careful, though, because Chile's very good and could sneak in there. Especially since you know there's going to be a ton of Chilean fans at all their games. Poor Australia is simply overmatched in this group.
Group C: Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan
From one of the better groups, to one of the weaker ones. That's what you get when Colombia's the seed and Greece is the only European team. That opens up Group C for Ivory Coast, which is probably the best African side, and Japan, the best team in Asia. I can realistically see all four of these teams making it through. I guess the advantage of a weaker group is that it'll be a little more competitive. I do like Colombia to emerge as the group winner, while Ivory Coast will be the token African representative in the Round of 16.
Group D: Uruguay, Costa Rica, England, Italy
I don't get why the Netherlands isn't seeded, but I really don't get why Italy isn't seeded. They won the World Cup in 2006, finished second at Euro 2012 and took third in the Confederations Cup, where they beat group member Uruguay in the bronze medal game. Not only aren't they seeded, Italy got the worst draw of any European team. They're out to redeem themselves after 2010, and they're probably pissed about how the draw went down. The Azzuri will be very scary in this tournament. Not enough to top the group, though. Ubertalented Uruguay borders Brazil, so it'll feel like you're playing them in Montevideo. England's chances of advancing depends on what English team shows up, while Costa Rica is the unfortunate team to draw three former champs in one of the two Groups of Death.
Group E: Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras
For the record, Switzerland is one of the teams that I wouldn't have seeded so that Italy and the Netherlands could be (Belgium is the other). As a result of the Swiss being the seed, this is one of the weaker groups. I don't think Switzerland wins the group, and it's questionable whether or not they even advance. Like Italy, France is out to redeem itself after the debacle that was South Africa. And they've got a favorable group to advance out of. Ecuador might be the weakest South American team, which is by no means a knock, because I can easily see them advancing. I can't say the same about Honduras.
Group G: Argentina, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria
Argentina will go through the formality of playing its three group games. They were already going to be one of the favorites. Then they got this group. The only questions about Argentina in the group round will be how many goals they allow and what the goal differential will be. With that being said, though, this is a great group for Bosnia. The only World Cup debutants will get a not-so-nice welcome from Messi and Co., but after that, they've got two very winnable games. Advancing is definitely a possibility. If Bosnia falters, look for Nigeria to take advantage. Iran may be the weakest side in the entire tournament.
Group H: Germany, Portugal, Ghana, United States
Even with Landon Donovan, advancing was going to be a difficult task for the United States. Ghana's knocked the U.S. out of the last two World Cups, Germany's Germany and Portugal has Cristiano Ronaldo. It's not impossible, but they need to beat Ghana in the first game, then hope lightning strikes twice and upset Portugal like they did 12 years ago in Korea. That makes the Germany game meaningless. I don't think it happens, though. The two European teams are ranked in the Top 5 in the world (again, how does this happen?). You know Germany's advancing. What's the saying, "Death, Taxes and Deutschland?" And if Cristiano Ronaldo's healthy (he sure looked it in that exhibition game), Portugal probably will as well.
Group G: Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea
The one thing working in the U.S.'s favor is that if they do manage to get out of the group, the Round of 16 matchup is going to be a very winnable game. That's because Group G is one of the weakest, if not THE weakest. Belgium's the seed? Really? They're good, but they don't deserve to be seeded over Italy. Not only that, they were gifted with this group. Belgium's not going to finish behind two of these teams. I think Russia wins the group, but South Korea and Algeria aren't going to advance.
Round of 16: Brazil-Netherlands, Colombia-Italy, France-Bosnia, Germany-Belgium; Spain-Croatia, Uruguay-Ivory Coast, Argentina-Ecuador, Russia-Portugal
Quarterfinals: Brazil-Italy, France-Germany; Spain-Uruguay, Argentina-Portugal
Semifinals: Brazil-Germany; Uruguay-Argentina
Final: Brazil-Argentina
The biggest surprise in my knockout phase games is obviously Uruguay over Spain in the quarterfinals. I'm simply not buying into the Spanish hype. Brazil exposed the way to beat them in the Confederations Cup, and you know the other teams saw that and took notes. But there's another factor I see working in the South American teams' favor, which is why I see this turning into Copa America at the end.
Every World Cup played in the Americas (including the two in Mexico and one in the U.S.) has been won by either Brazil, Argentina or Uruguay. There's a reason for that. These three South American squads, in addition to being very good, are going to have the fan support and be the most comfortable playing in cities and stadiums with which they're very familiar. That's why I don't think the all-European final predictions that I've seen from some people are very realistic. After two straight all-European finals, we're going to see at least one of the South American teams on the field at Maracana on July 13.
I think there will be two South American teams on the field at Maracana for the final. It'll be archrivals Brazil and Argentina. As for a winner, the pressure on Brazil to win this World Cup is immense. It's even more than the pressure that was on the Russian hockey team in Sochi. The only other time Brazil hosted, they lost the final game at Maracana to Uruguay in 1950. There are plenty of Brazilians who still remember that, and this team will want to make sure it doesn't happen again. That victory over Spain in the Confederations Cup gave them plenty of confidence, as well.
No host nation has won the World Cup since France in 1998. I think that changes next month. When Brazil extends its record by winning its sixth title. Except this one will be the sweetest. Because this time, they'll win it in Rio.
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