We've reached the first weekend in January and the start of the NFL playoffs. In my opinion, Seattle and Denver are far-and-away the two best teams, and they seem on a collision course for MetLife Stadium, but we always get a couple of surprises. It wouldn't shock me at all to see one of the teams playing this weekend also playing on February 2. Especially if that team is San Francisco, Philadelphia or Cincinnati.
This week's picks will start in the AFC, where a crazy Week 17 almost resulted in the Pittsburgh Steelers somehow making the playoffs. In fact, considering the officiating mistakes in San Diego, they probably should've. We also lost the defending champion Ravens, which is a good thing for the four division champs. Because they would've been tough.
Chiefs (11-5) at Colts (11-5): Indianapolis-The Chiefs lost five of their last seven games, but had built such a comfortable cushion after that 9-0 start that they were locked into the No. 5 position last week, so they rested their starters. And still almost won! Well, Tamba Hali, Dwayne Bowe and all the rest will be in action for the Chiefs against Indy. The Colts are an odd team. They went "just" 11-5 and lost some games they had no business losing, but they also beat the Broncos, Seahawks, 49ers and, most significantly (at least for this week), the Chiefs. That game was just two weeks ago in Kansas City, one of the toughest places for a visiting team to play anywhere in the NFL. I think that's an indicator of what we can see here.
Indy won the weakest division in football, but they're by no means a weak team. All those wins over the better teams prove it. If that win over the Chiefs had been earlier in the year, it wouldn't be as significant, but both teams went into that game knowing it was probably a playoff preview, and it was all Indy. Now they're meeting again at Lucas Oil Stadium. I simply don't see it going any differently. Besides, there's a part of me that really wants to see Peyton beat the Colts next week. The only way that can happen is if the Colts knock off Kansas City first.
Chargers (9-7) at Bengals (11-5): Cincinnati-All week, people have been dumping on the Chargers, calling them the "worst" of the 12 playoff teams. While I agree that they're the weakest team in either field, and that they had a playoff berth handed to them on a silver platter and almost gave it away against the Chiefs' backups, they still deserve credit for getting here. San Diego was 5-7 on December 1. Then they won their last four games to clinch a playoff berth, over the defending champs and a very good Miami team. The turning point? That December 1 game. A 17-10 loss to Cincinnati.
I see this regular season rematch going much the same way as the Indianapolis-San Diego rematch. The Bengals aren't just better than the Chargers, they're significantly better. It wouldn't surprise me if they won on the road in New England next week. If this game was being played in sunny San Diego, I'd like the Chargers' chances at keeping the game at least competitive, but the most underrated team in the NFL has the added advantage of playing at home in frigid Cincinnati. It would be the upset of the week if the Bengals don't get their first playoff win since 1990.
Moving on to the NFC, we've got a pair of intriguing matchups. The Packers and Eagles both won winner-take-all games on the road last week to clinch their respective divisions. And as a prize, they get to host the two best wild card teams of the entire bunch. The Packers won three road games and the Super Bowl a few years ago, so they know it can be done. Especially when it's San Francisco and New Orleans that have the chance to do it.
Saints (11-5) at Eagles (10-6): Philadelphia-The Saints aren't going to do it, though. By not winning the NFC South, they lost the biggest advantage they have. Instead of playing one game at the Superdome and hoping for a Seahawks loss, now they're going to have to win three times on the road in order to get to the Super Bowl. And the difference between home and away is like night and day for this team. They went 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road, including losses to the Jets and Patriots when the weather in the Northeast was much more friendly than it will be on a Saturday night in January.
Let's not forget, too, that New Orleans is playing one of the hottest teams in football. The Eagles were 3-5 at the midway point. They're 7-1 since and flat scary. Nobody wants to play the Eagles right now, especially in Philadelphia. That team, those fans and the weather are not a good trifecta for a Saints team that likes its comfortable dome down South. This has all the makings of Philly's third straight primetime victory on NBC. I wonder if they're going to petition the NFL to play the Panther game on Saturday night instead of Sunday afternoon next week. (Or, at the very least, see if Al and Cris can call it.)
49ers (12-4) at Packers (8-7-1): San Francisco-For all this talk about how San Diego doesn't belong in the playoffs, how about Green Bay? The only reason people are OK with it is because they're the Green Bay Packers. But they're by far the weakest team of the 12. If the Lions and Bears hadn't pissed away the month of December, the Packers wouldn't have even been in that position last week. I give them credit for pulling it off, and Aaron Rodgers coming back is certainly a huge help, but they're playing a very good 49ers team in the Game of the Week, and they haven't had much success against San Francisco in the past year-and-a-half (2012 Week 1: 49ers 30-22 in Green Bay, 2012 Divisional Playoffs: 49ers 45-31 in San Francisco, 2013 Week 1: 49ers 34-28 in San Francisco).
I don't see the annual 49ers-Packers playoff game going any differently this time. The weather will likely be a factor (which is why some people are back on that whole "the team with the better record should get the home game" bandwagon), but not enough to make Green Bay the favorite. San Francisco's plenty capable of running the ball, and isn't completely inexperienced in late-season cold-weather games (they won in New England on a Sunday night in Week 15 last season and on a Monday night in Washington in Week 12 this year). The Packers did a great job to go from 5-6-1 to their annual NFC North title and home playoff game at Lambeau, but New Orleans would've been the better matchup. They'll learn the importance of getting the 3-seed as opposed to the 4. Because third-seeded Philly's going to win. Green Bay won't.
Divisional Playoff matchups: Indianapolis at Denver, Cincinnati at New England, San Francisco at Seattle, Philadelphia at Carolina
Last Week: 13-3
Regular Season: 167-88-1
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