It's rare that we have the four best teams in football playing on Conference Championship Sunday, but that's exactly what we've got this year. For most of the year, it's looked like the Broncos and Seahawks have been on a collision course for MetLife Stadium. And we're one game away from that happening. Of course, the two 1-seeds both getting to the Super Bowl is rare (the last time we had it was Saints-Colts, and that was the first time it had happened in like 15 years). Will Denver and Seattle buck that trend or will New England keep it in tact? And what about the 49ers? Do they continue that streak of a team that played on Wild Card Weekend making it all the way to the Super Bowl?
AFC: Patriots (13-4) at Broncos (14-3): Denver-Chapter 15 in the Manning vs. Brady Saga, and it takes place in the AFC Championship Game one more time. The last time they met with the AFC title on the line was after the 2006 season, when the Colts made that ridiculous comeback en route to their Super Bowl title. That's also the only time that the two have faced each other in a playoff game that didn't take place at Foxboro. You want a reason why Brady has such an edge in the all-time series, start there. It seems like every time they play it's in New England.
That includes that crazy game in Week 12, when the Broncos had a 24-0 lead before the Patriots came back to win in overtime. Don't think either team forgets that. It gives the Patriots a ton of confidence heading into their third straight AFC Championship Game, and it also motivates the Broncos to make sure it doesn't happen again. If not for the Dolphins, that Patriots comeback would've put this game in New England instead of Denver, which would've been an incredible advantage for the Patriots. But as it is, the game's in Denver and that altitude.
Both teams have deficiencies on the defensive end, and it seems likely that with the two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, the game's going to be pretty high scoring. And as great as both QBs are, the running game is really going to be the key. The Patriots ran all over the Colts last week, and their running back-by-committee formula will help keep the legs fresh. Likewise, Manning needs his running backs. The running game will become even more important if either team gets out to a big lead and needs to milk the clock, which is something Denver was unable to do in the regular season meeting.
As much as this game is all about the two offenses, the defenses will be just as important. People like to get on the Denver defense as the team's big weakness, but it was the Broncos' defense that stepped up and stopped that late Charger drive to preserve the win last week. Brady has helped mask the deficiencies with the New England defense, but outside of Aqib Talib, they don't exactly strike fear into their opponents. Remember, the Colts still managed to score 22 points last week, and the Broncos' offense is much better than the Colts offense. We also don't know whether or not Gostkowski's going to have to pull double-duty again, and how much affect it'll have if he does.
Brady usually gets the upper hand in the head-to-head matchups, and a New England win sends Bradicheck to their sixth Super Bowl together. I don't see it happening, though. Denver let the game get away when these two met in the regular season, but is at home and will have the crowd on their side this time. But I think last year will be the real motivating factor. The Broncos were heavy favorites to get to the Super Bowl last season, but lost to Baltimore in the Divisional round. Well, they've already gotten past that hurdle this time. They know this is their chance to seal the deal and send Peyton back to the Super Bowl.
NFC: 49ers (14-4) at Seahawks (14-3): Seattle-If the AFC's all about the two offenses, defense will be the story in the NFC Championship Game. 49ers-Seahawks has developed into one of the best, most competitive rivalries in the NFL, and this time they're meeting with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. It's San Francisco's third straight NFC title game, but they have to go to the unfriendliest place in the NFL. A place where they've gotten absolutely embarrassed the last two times they've played there.
Beating the Seahawks isn't impossible, though, and winning the rematch at Candlestick in Week 14 was huge for the 49ers' confidence. Seattle had been essentially already anointed the NFC champs, but that was the 49ers' chance to say "Remember us? We ARE the NFC champs until someone beats us." And San Francisco comes into the game as the hottest team of the four. They've won eight straight, including that victory over the Seahawks and two road playoff games. (I saw a stat yesterday that said Colin Kaepernick already has more road playoff wins than Joe Montana and Steve Young combined. But in fairness to Montana and Young, the 49ers didn't really play any road playoff games in the 80s and 90s, so that's not really their fault.)
Anyway, the storylines coming into this game are fascinating. You've got the two head coaches, who go back to their Stanford-USC days. The two exceptional defenses. The two quarterbacks who are capable of doing seemingly anything. The rivalry, which prompted the Seahawks to prevent anyone who lives in California from buying tickets (which I think is awesome). A trip to this little game called the Super Bowl on the line. And, most importantly, that crowd. The reason why it's so impossible for visiting teams to win in Seattle.
For the 49ers to have any chance, they either need to get out to an early lead or at least keep it close long enough to take the crowd out of it. Otherwise, they could be the victims of a third straight Seattle blowout. San Francisco also needs to establish the run in order to open up the passing game. If Kaepernick tries to beat the Seattle secondary through the air, it's not going to happen. Seattle, meanwhile, needs to establish the run in order to prevent Russell Wilson getting killed by the 49ers pass rush.
It all comes back to that crowd, though. Arizona proved it's possible, but there's a reason why that's the only home game Russell Wilson has lost in his NFL career (well, he's technically lost twice if you count that Monday night game last season where the Packers were screwed by the replacement refs). And that's the reason it was so important for the Seahawks to earn the No. 1 seed. Especially with the 49ers coming to town, that crowd isn't letting the Seahawks lose the NFC Championship Game if they can do anything about it.
Last Week: 4-0
Playoffs: 6-2
Season: 173-90-1
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