Yes, that's my official World Series prediction. Before I break down exactly how I came up with that, I've got another little nugget that I didn't think of until after I'd already posted my 13 Fun Facts for the 2013 World Series. If the Cardinals win in six, the all-time records of the Red Sox and Cardinals against each other in the World Series would be even at 12-12. Anyway, on to why I think the Red Sox are going to win...
I said heading into the LCSes that whichever team won the AL pennant would be the World Series favorites. After watching those 12 games, that opinion hasn't changed. Both of these teams were very impressive with the ways they found to win, a key intangible come this time of year. And they both got contributions from everybody, another important element when it comes to postseason baseball. Throw in tremendous starting pitching and solid bullpen work, and it's easy to see why these are the last two standings.
So why the Red Sox? The answer's not an obvious one.
Some experts say St. Louis has the edge when it comes to starting pitching, but I think that's actually a pretty even split. By not having to play a Game 7 against the Dodgers, St. Louis is able to use its ace, Adam Wainwright, in Game 1, then back him up with NLCS MVP Michael Wacha on normal rest in Game 2. They haven't announced the rest of the rotation yet, but you'd have to figure it'll be Joe Kelly in Games 3/7 and Lance Lynn in Game 4. But the Red Sox are going to counter with Jon Lester against Wainwright and, more importantly, a Cardinals lineup that struggles against left-handed pitching in Games 1 and 5. Then it's John Lackey in Game 2, which means Clay Buchholz is being held until Game 3 (and possibly Game 7).
As good as the St. Louis starting pitchers have been, I think those are very even matchups. Even if you say Wacha has the edge against Lackey (who started and won Game 7 as a rookie with the 2002 Angels), Boston has the edge with Buchholz, and, even though he got rocked in Game 4 of the ALCS, you have to think they feel comfortable with longtime Padre Jake Peavy pitching Game 4 in the NL park. For all the credit the Cardinals starters have been getting, the Red Sox starters might not be getting enough. At the very worst, you'd have to say the starting pitching is a draw.
It's the bullpen, though, where Boston has a big advantage. The Red Sox won the ALCS because the Tigers bullpen was terrible and their was virtually unhittable. So, good luck Cardinals if that's your strategy. Craig Breslow has been great. He's not just your matchup lefty. He can get anybody out. So can Junichi Tazawa. And do I even need to get into how ridiculous Koji Uehara has been since the All-Star Break? A walk-off homer to Jose Lobaton aside, guys don't even get on base against the Boston closer and ALCS MVP. All he does is throw strikes, which people still can't hit.
The St. Louis bullpen is also good, but definitely more vulnerable. Trevor Rosenthal is a terrific closer, but if I had my choice, I'm going with Uehara. I really like Edward Mujica, but I just have a feeling Mike Matheny's going to overuse him and/or he's really going to get roughed up in one game. One of the Cardinals' secret weapons during their title run two years ago was Marc Rzepczynski. Their current left-handers, Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist, have a big task ahead of them with the likes of Big Papi and Jacoby Ellsbury. It might not be a good comparison because Detroit's bullpen isn't very good, but you saw what the Red Sox lineup did to Tigers relievers. If they get into the Cardinals bullpen early, it's advantage Boston. Especially if their own bullpen continues to dominate.
When it comes to the lineups, I'd also give the slight edge to Boston, although that edge has gotten smaller with the announcement that Allen Craig is good to go to DH the games at Fenway Park. Right after they won the pennant, I assumed the Cardinals wouldn't have Craig for the World Series and, thus, have to figure out their DH situation. This would've been a major problem. Because St. Louis has one of the most National League-style lineups you'll ever see. Adding Craig, though, makes it significantly deeper. How effective will he be after being out of action for six weeks? Nobody knows. But being able to use Allen Craig instead of Daniel Descalso or Shane Robinson at DH definitely puts the Cardinals in a better position for the games at Fenway Park than they would've been otherwise.
The critics of year-round interleague play cite as one of their main reasons that you've got teams playing under different rules in the heart of the pennant race. Well, as fate would have it, the two American League teams that played interleague road series during the last week of the season were, ironically enough, the Red Sox and the Tigers. And in Boston's case, I think was a tremendous benefit. Because they're not going to suddenly be thrown into the position of David Ortiz playing first base in the World Series after not having put on a glove since a couple of games in July. It was only two games in Colorado, but the Red Sox constructed an Ortiz-at-first lineup that late in the season with the World Series in mind. Of course the question then becomes, "Where do you put Mike Napoli?" Well, remember, he used to be a catcher. Or, you've got a very dangerous bat available as a pinch hitter (same for the Cardinals with Craig).
Top-to-bottom, though, Boston's lineup is deeper, the struggles of Stephen Drew and Will Middlebrooks aside. Ellsbury and Victorino are great table-setters, and Pedroia makes that team go. And there's no describing how clutch Ortiz, Napoli and even Saltalamacchia have been. Then there's Johnny Gomes. Johnny Gomes isn't that good and he's (along with Napoli) the ringleader of that whole ridiculous beard thing. But for some reason he's a catalyst, and the Red Sox are undefeated when he starts in left field this postseason. Even though the Cardinals will be starting only right-handers, I'd expect him to start at least the first two games in Fenway.
Both teams also have that emotional factor on their side. The Cardinals have been playing all season for the great Stan Musial, who died over the winter. The Red Sox, of course, have galvanized their city after the Boston Marathon bombings. Boston Strong has been the rallying cry in much the same way the Yankees became the symbol of their city after 9/11. The 2001 Yankees came up short, but I don't think the 2013 Red Sox will.
The last thing that gives the Red Sox the edge is Fenway Park and their rabid fans. St. Louis had the home field advantage in 2011, and that's the reason why they won. If this series goes back to Boston, I think Fenway will be a deciding factor. Those fans are insane. If given a chance to get involved in the series, you know they will. Especially if it goes back to Boston 3-2 Cardinals. Either way, if this series goes beyond five games, which I think it will, St. Louis doesn't stand a chance against the Fenway Faithful.
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