I don't mean to brag, but I happen to know a blogger who went 4-for-4 with his Division Series predictions. And now we're down to the four best teams in baseball. It's not always the case with the AL and NLCS, but I truly think the Dodgers and Cardinals are the top two teams in the National League, and the Red Sox and Tigers have been the best two teams in the American League pretty much all season.
This is nothing more than an incredible coincidence, but it speaks to their remarkable consistency that the Tigers and Cardinals are both playing in the LCS for the third consecutive year. Meanwhile, the Dodgers and Red Sox were both absolute messes last season...until the trade that turned both franchises around. The turnaround by those two storied franchises in just one year is absolutely incredible. And, while not the sole reason for either team's success, how mutually beneficial that blockbuster turned out in such a short amount of time is amazing.
Dodgers vs. Cardinals: It sure was a risky move by Don Mattingly to start Clayton Kershaw in Game 4 with the series lead, knowing that if it didn't pay off, he wouldn't have his ace for Game 5. But since it did work out, that puts the Dodgers in a great position heading into the NLCS. Because now they can go Greinke in Game 1, followed by Kershaw on regular rest in Game 2. That means they'll get to use their two best starters twice each over the first six games.
That being said, though, I feel as if the Dodgers are going to win the pennant, they almost have to do it in six. Because the Cardinals will have Adam Wainwright waiting for them in Game 7. And we all know how St. Louis has done in do-or-die games over the past three seasons. St. Louis has Wainwright and Michael Wacha, but the fact that the Cardinals had to use Wainwright in Game 5 against the Pirates gives LA a huge advantage. Now the Cardinals will have to beat either Greinke or Kershaw at least once, as well as winning both of the other games, just to get back to Wainwright.
Besides, the Dodgers are more talented than the no-name Cardinals. I suppose I just need to accept the fact that, regardless of how unknown the players are, St. Louis is really good. Just not as good as the Dodgers. Especially if Andre Ethier is healthy and able to play center field, making that lineup so much deeper than it already is.
Last year St. Louis jumped out to a 3-1 lead before the overall better Giants team and its superior pitching took over and San Francisco ended up winning the series in seven. I think the script is remarkably similar this year. The Dodgers have the better pitching staff and the more talented lineup. The biggest thing working in the Cardinals' favor is the home field advantage, and we've all seen how much of a difference it can make, especially with this team. However, I don't think it gets that far. It's been 25 years since the Dodgers have been to the World Series. That should change sometime within the next 10 days. Dodgers in six.
Tigers vs. Red Sox: When Detroit and Boston played at the beginning of September, the Red Sox won the last game 20-4 or something ridiculous like that. That game will probably still be fresh in both teams' minds. I think they both know that was more of an aberration, though. Both teams have great pitching, but with those two lineups, 5-4 games are much more likely than 2-1 games. Either way, I don't think we're getting blowouts.
Boston's going to win Game 1. Everything lines up well for the Red Sox heading into the start of the series. The Tigers have to fly cross-country and likely won't have either of their top two pitchers available. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will be able to use their ace, Jon Lester. While they haven't officially announced it, I would imagine Boston will use the same rotation as they did against Tampa Bay. And they would be wise to do so, because that matches up Buchholz vs. Verlander in Games 3 and 7, countering Detroit's stud with a stud of their own. So, if you figure Lester wins Games 1 and 5 and Scherzer wins Games 2 and 6, the two Buchholz-Verlander games could likely determine the series.
It seems almost too robotic to break this series down strictly on starting pitching, but that's what playoff series ultimately come down to. And you've got the deepest rotation remaining in Boston against the best 1-2 punch in Scherzer and Verlander. The starting pitching is almost a wash. If it comes down to the bullpens, though, it's clearly advantage Boston. Jim Leyland's lack of confidence in his bullpen was on full display in Game 4 of the Oakland series, when he went to Scherzer for two innings of relief. Benoit can't even be totally trusted. Koji Uehara, meanwhile, Jose Lobaton's walk-off homer notwithstanding, has been virtually lights-out since the All-Star Break.
There are two superstar lineups that can't be ignored either. Miguel Cabrera is severely limited. That's obvious. That's been obvious through September. But that Tigers lineup is stacked, and a 50/60 percent Cabrera is better than the alternative. The Red Sox and their stupid beards of course can mash also. Their biggest advantage is Fenway Park. That lineup is built for that ballpark. Detroit's job is going to be slowing down that offense. Because the Tigers have to win at least one game in Fenway if they're going to win the pennant.
This one is very, very close. I think whoever wins the ALCS will be the favorites in the World Series. The Red Sox and Tigers are so evenly matched that I don't think a Game 7 is out of the question. And who doesn't want to see that Buchholz-Verlander Game 7 matchup? If Verlander has proven anything over the past two years, that's the type of situation he strives for. And thrives in. Tigers in seven.
So there you have it. I said Tigers-Dodgers at the start of the Division Series, and I don't see any reason to change my pick now.
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