It wasn't a surprise when the Angels announced earlier today that either manager Mike Scioscia or GM Jerry Dipoto won't return next season. Anaheim has been a disappointment for the last two years and a change is definitely needed. Just like a change was needed in Philadelphia, where Charlie Manuel was let go last week. Based on the subpar play of some other clubs, there are definitely some other managers at risk of being shown the door, as well.
Going into this season, we already knew that Nationals manager Davey Johnson won't be back next year. He's retiring at the end of the season. So, despite the fact that Washington is by all accounts severely underachieving, his departure is completely unrelated to their record. In fact, if he weren't retiring, I bet the Nationals would've been happy to have him back in 2014. One bad year is not a sign that Johnson suddenly lost the ability to manage.
Same thing with Giants manager Bruce Bochy. Even though San Francisco is mired in last place, they've won the World Series twice in the last three years. That's enough for him to be granted a pass for this season's struggles. And while Don Mattingly was on the hot seat for the first three months of the season, there's no way the Dodgers are canning him now. After that turnaround, he's even entered into the NL Manager of the Year discussion.
One NL West manager that might not make it to next season, though, is the Padres' Bud Black. Black was the NL Manager of the Year when the Padres won 90 games in 2010, but San Diego has struggled in the three years since. Those struggles aren't exactly his fault (there's only so much he can do with San Diego's limited payroll), but the Diamondbacks and Rockies have both managed to be reasonable contenders in that division despite their modest means. With that in mind, I'd say Black's probably gone. I'm pinning him as most likely to get fired.
Another manager who might not return is the Twins' Ron Gardenhire. He's been Minnesota's manager a long time. Since 2002. The Twins' struggles aren't entirely Gardenhire's fault (they have no pitching, and their lineup is pretty much limited to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau), but this rebuilding period gives them a perfect opportunity to start fresh. Minnesota doesn't change managers often (Gardenhire took over for Tom Kelly, who was there for 16 years), so keeping Gardenhire (especially since the Twins are hosting the All*Star Game next year) isn't out of the realm of possibility.
Staying in the AL Central, White Sox manager Robin Ventura will almost certainly get a pass. The White Sox weren't supposed to be good last season, yet ended up leading the division for five-and-a-half months before the Tigers finally woke up in the middle of September. That brought up the expectations for this year's team, which has ended up playing more like the White Sox were projected to do in 2012. I think the truth lies somewhere in between. Ventura needs another year to prove it. I think he gets it.
John Gibbons in Toronto is an interesting case. The Blue Jays brought him back this season after John Farrell left to take the Red Sox job, knowing that they were facing high expectations. Toronto, of course, hasn't met those expectations, sitting firmly in last place instead. Even still, I think it's too early to pull the plug on Gibbons 2.0. The Blue Jays know the talent is there. It's entirely possibly that all the success that was predicted this season will come in 2014. They'd be wise to make roster moves rather than a managerial change.
As for the slew of really bad teams, which is where you'd normally find the prime candidates for pink slips, I don't think that's going to be the case this year. Bo Porter took the Astros job knowing they would be potentially historically awful. Same with Mike Redmond and the Marlins. And Dale Sveum with the Cubs. Likewise, the Brewers falling apart has nothing to do with Ron Roenicke. And the Mets don't seem dissatisfied with Terry Collins, which makes me think he'll be back. Colorado shows promise under rookie skipper Walt Weiss. He's safe. So is Eric Wedge in Seattle. In fact, the Mariners show signs that they could be really, really good in the next couple years.
So, while there are inevitably going to be managerial changes this offseason, that number may be limited. The Angels and Phillies absolutely needed to do something, but they both jumped the gun. The only question remaining in Philadelphia is whether or not Ryne Sandberg will get the job full-time. Otherwise, managerial jobs could be few and far between. Because most other clubs either should or do feel reasonably comfortable with their managerial situation going into 2014.
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