We've reached the end of summer, which means only one thing. It's time for that wonderful two weeks of tennis known as the US Open. Blue courts, massive crowds, night tennis...it all adds up to a hell of a show. This year brings some changes, too. Last year I made a joke about the five straight Monday finals and whether or not they should make it permanent. Well, somebody at the USTA apparently thought I was being serious because the men's final is scheduled for Monday for the next two years. No more Saturday-Sunday back-to-back, and the Saturday night women's final, which they haven't had since 2007 anyway, is gone too. Instead, the women get the Sunday afternoon post-football slot and the men will play on Monday until ESPN takes over the TV rights entirely in 2015. More changes are coming, too. They announced last week that a retractable roof will be built over Arthur Ashe Stadium in time for the 2017 tournament.
Anyway, after not happening since 2003, we've got a possibility of there being a fourth different Grand Slam champion of the year crowned on the men's side for the second consecutive year. Player of the Year honors will likely be at stake, as well, as each of the top three players (Djokovic, Nadal, Murray) won the first three Grand Slams. The women could have four different champions, too, which would be the second time in three years. Although, Serena Williams will attempt to do something she's never done before and successfully defend a US Open title.
There are clear favorites in both tournaments, but this is the US Open. Anything can happen, as evidence by the five different men's champions in each of the last five years. This year is no different. Two women (Serena and Victoria Azarenka) stand a cut above the rest, but on the men's side, your guess as to what's going to happen is as good as mine.
First, let's talk about the elephant in the room. Roger Federer is not Roger Federer anymore. He's getting old, which is sad to watch, his quarterfinal streak ended at Wimbledon, and his ranking has dipped to No. 7. Some experts are questioning if Roger's done, while some think he might have a Sampras-like run in him (after he was past his prime, Pete Sampras reached the US Open final in 2000 and 2001 before winning the title in 2002 and promptly retiring). It might be my blind Roger fan faith, but I think he has another run in him. Whether or not it's this year is a different question.
The top of the men's game is so stacked right now, and there are six legitimate threats to win this title. Unfortunately, they're all in the same three quarters of the draw. Even worse, Murray and Djokovic are on the same side, which means no rematch of last year's epic final or the Wimbledon final (both Murray wins). It's also some sort of Grand Slam rule that there has to be a Federer-Nadal meeting in the earliest round possible. In this case, it's the quarters. And if they do meet, it would be a US Open first (get your tickets for next Wednesday night now).
Roger, of course, won five straight US Opens from 2004-08 before losing that classic against Juan Martin Del Potro in the 2009 final (interestingly, Roger's last win was the last Sunday final). But he hasn't been to the final since, and the man to beat at Flushing Meadows has become No. 1 Novak Djokovic. He's been in the last three finals and is the undisputed best hardcourt player in the world (three straight Australian Open wins). The road to the final won't be easy for Djokovic, though. At Wimbledon, he barely survived a semifinal with Del Potro before taking on a much fresher Murray in the final. So what's his US Open draw look like? Well, wouldn't you know, Del Potro in the quarters, then Murray in the semis. If Murray gets by Tomas Berdych, that is.
As fans, that third quarter is the dud, as Richard Gasquet and David Ferrer are the top two seeds. Ferrer has certainly proven his place at No. 4 in the rankings, but his semifinal appearance last year probably represents the peak of what he'll be able to do here. The Federer-Nadal winner will be a heavy favorite in the semis. The way Nadal has played this summer, getting his ranking back to No. 2 (which was pretty much inevitable since he didn't play at all last summer and had no points to defend), I'd say he's the favorite on the bottom half, but he's got a potential fourth round matchup against top American John Isner, who'll definitely have the crowd on his side and has given Nadal some trouble during the US Open Series. An upset there wouldn't completely surprise me.
For the most part, I'm going with the chalk, mainly because those potential quarterfinals are very, very yummy. I'm taking Isner over Nadal, and my only other "upset" is a mild one, 10th-seeded Milos Raonic over eighth-seeded Gasquet in the round of 16. Djokovic finally gets the better of Murray in one semi and in that epic Federer vs. Ferrer matchup, Roger pulls it out to get to one more US Open final, where he drops another classic to Nole.
Serena's the easy pick on the women's side, and the Serena-Azarenka final rematch certainly seems like the safe bet on paper. However, Samantha Stosur won the title here two years ago and, especially without Sharapova, the tournament seems wide open. Those two are the favorites, but there are a ton of women capable of making a run.
I'm going to start with Angelique Kerber, a semifinalist here in 2011 and at Wimbledon last year. She's seeded eighth and could give Serena a hard time in the quarterfinals. The other quarter in Serena's half is No. 3 Aggie Radwanska and No. 5 Li Na, the 2011 French Open champ. Li's a two-time finalist in Australia, but I don't see her going deep here. Her round of 16 match will likely be against Jelena Jankovic, the former No. 1 and 2008 US Open finalist who has finally gotten back into the Top 10 and once again resembles the player she once was. She's gotten there because of a great hardcourt season. Jankovic has a history of underperforming at Grand Slams, but can she go deep? Yeah.
Another former No. 1 who has probably inherited Jankovic's crown as "Best Player Never to Win a Slam" is Caroline Wozniacki. Her best results have come in New York, though. A finalist in 2009 and semifinal appearances in 2010-11. And you know she'll be out to atone for last year's shocking first-round loss. Wozniacki was also a victim of "Wacky Wednesday" at Wimbledon, so that'll probably be in the back of her mind, too. I like Wozniacki's chances, though. There isn't a player in her section of the draw that she shouldn't be able to beat. That includes No. 14 Maria Kirilenko, who I think has the best chance of knocking her off, former champ Svetlana Kuznetsova and No. 4 Sara Errani, who reached the semis last year.
Last year, Azarenka nearly beat Serena in the finals. She then defended her Australian Open title. So, it's pretty clear that she's comfortable on hardcourts. 2011 champion Sam Stosur awaits in the quarters and former No. 1 Ana Ivanovic is a potential fourth-round opponent (although the likelihood of an Ivanovic early-round upset is high), but a healthy Vika should have a pretty easy road to the semifinals.
Just like at Wimbledon, I'm calling upset on Serena Williams. She falls to Kerber in the quarterfinals. Kerber then goes on to beat Radwanska in the semis to reach her first Grand Slam final. Her opponent will be Azarenka, who I just don't see losing to anybody in the bottom half. That includes against Wozniacki in the semis. And, with Serena out of the way, Azarenka stakes her claim for Player of the Year by adding a US Open title to her Australian Open crown.
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