Saturday marks the start of two major sports tournaments. One marks the end of the season, while the other is a tune-up for a much more significant event next year. I'm, of course, talking about the College World Series and the FIFA Confederations Cup. Since both are important, today's blog is going to be a two-for-one special. Predictions for both.
Let's start in Omaha, where we don't have a party-crashing feel-good story like Stony Brook this year. Well, we kinda do in Indiana, but they were a No. 1 seed so their presence isn't a total surprise. For the most part, these are all teams that you might've expected to make it to Omaha. Regional No. 1 and 2 seeds all. Sure, there are only three of the eight national seeds remaining, but I, for one, don't think that can be used as an argument that this is a "weak" field, especially since NC State, UCLA and Louisville were probably the No. 9, 10 and 11 national seeds (and Indiana might've been the 12).
Top overall seed North Carolina was the last team to advance, but they're still the best team there. They take on rival NC State, which is making its first College World Series appearance in 45 years. The other game in this bracket is a yummy matchup between UCLA and LSU. UCLA's a very good team, but I'd be very surprised to see the semifinal be anything other than North Carolina-LSU. The Tar Heels are the No. 1 overall seed for a reason, though. I expect to see them in the championship series.
The other bracket gives us one last moment in the sun for the original Big East, as Louisville plays Indiana. Oregon State meets Mississippi State in the other game. I've though Indiana was underrated and unheralded all year, so I'm so happy to see them in Omaha. The same could probably be said about Louisville, as well, and the Cardinals certainly earned their spot with that sweep of No. 2 overall seed Vanderbilt. The winner of this bracket probably comes out of that Oregon State-Mississippi State matchup, though. In fact, I think those two meet again in the semifinal, with Mississippi State winning to earn a matchup with North Carolina.
North Carolina and Oregon State played in the championship series in back-to-back years a couple years ago, with Oregon State winning the national title both times. So, you know North Carolina doesn't want to see that matchup again. Should it be Mississippi State, that's much more favorable. And if it is, I think North Carolina wins its first National Championship (and the first for the ACC since Wake Forest in 1955).
If the College World Series is anything like the rest of the NCAA Tournament, it should be pretty entertaining. Another tournament that should be pretty entertaining is the FIFA Confederations Cup, which is Brazil's dress rehearsal for next year's World Cup. This one's much smaller. Only eight teams. Done in two weeks. But when two of those teams are Brazil and Spain, you know you're going to see some quality soccer.
My only problem with the Confederations Cup is that the champions of Oceania and Africa are usually weaker than the other teams in the field. But with the two teams from Europe and the two from South America automatically split up, you still ended up with a strong group and a weak group. The strong group is Group A, which features the only two teams that have already qualified for the World Cup (Brazil and Japan), as well as two that will fairly soon (Italy and Mexico).
Brazil is the defending Confederations Cup champions, and the pressure of hosting won't be anywhere near as intense as it will be next year (or in the 2016 Olympics, which Brazil has somehow never won). I'm inclined to say Italy is the favorite for that second spot, but it wouldn't completely surprise me to see Japan sneak in there. Not too sure about Mexico. They haven't looked great in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, and the fact that they can't score is obviously a problem. Mexico won't have an issue getting back to Brazil next summer. But getting out of the group stage this summer might be too much to ask.
Group B is significantly weaker. You have Spain, which has won everything is sight over the last couple years, and Copa America winner Uruguay, along with Nigeria and Tahiti, the only team in the tournament that definitely can't qualify for the World Cup. Spain hasn't won every tournament its played in since Euro 2008. They lost to the United States in that remarkable upset in the semifinals of this tournament four years ago. So, if you wanted to give the best team in the world any extra motivation heading into a major tournament, there you go. Uruguay was a World Cup semifinalist in South Africa, the only South American team to get that far, and backed it up by winning Copa America. They might be the second-best team in the entire tournament.
I've got the all-South American semifinal between Brazil and Uruguay, as well as the Euro 2012 final rematch between Spain and Italy. (Italy qualified for the Confederations Cup as the "European champion" because Spain was already in for winning the World Cup.) Uruguay beat Brazil in Rio in the 1950 World Cup Final. While this would be a semifinal in, while still major, a less significant tournament, I see the same result. If last year's Euro final is any indication, Spain shouldn't have a problem with Italy. And in the final, which will be a rematch between Spain and Uruguay, Spain makes up for the disappointment of losing to the U.S. four years ago, makes it three major championships in a row, and cements itself as an even bigger favorite come next summer.
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