Well, Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova have sure done their best to make us talk about Wimbledon a little early this year, haven't they? As if there wasn't already enough to talk about the second the men's seed list was released and we saw that "5" next to Nadal's name. Even though that's his current ranking, Wimbledon organizers are able to use their discretion when it comes to moving a men's player up or down a seed line based on his previous grass court success. Since he's a two-time Wimbledon champion, everyone figured they'd flip-flop Nadal and No. 4 David Ferrer. Evidently, we were all wrong.
The obvious impact of Nadal being seeded fifth rather than fourth is huge. Instead of the Big Four all being separated and it not being possibly for any of them to face any of the others until the semifinals, it created the possibility that Djokovic, Murray or Federer could end up drawing Nadal in the quarters. Likewise, it created the potential situation where somebody would theoretically have to beat each of the other three to win the title, while one would get lucky and not face any of the others until the final. And it really screwed everybody else who ended up in the Nadal quarter, since having to go through all four of them is next to impossible, yet somebody theoretically might have to do it in order to win Wimbledon.
As it turns out, Djokovic was the lucky one and Federer (of course) drew the short straw. In order to defend his title, Roger will have to beat his biggest rival, the hometown favorite who knocked him off for Olympic gold on Centre Court a year ago, and the world No. 1. This is, by far, the toughest draw Roger Federer has faced at a Grand Slam in years. But if he does somehow manage to get through it, even if he loses to Djokovic in the final, all questions about his enduring greatness will be permanently answered. Djokovic, meanwhile, avoids all three of them until the final. It's not like it would've been going out on a limb to say he'd make the final anyway, but, with this draw, if he's not playing on Championship Sunday, I'll be shocked.
I'm not saying Djokovic is going to cruise into the final. He's got a quarterfinal against Thomas Berdych, a former finalist here, or Richard Gasquet, then it's Ferrer or Juan Martin Del Potro in the semis. Del Potro would be a much tougher match. We saw how great he can be when he beat Nadal and Federer on consecutive days to win the 2009 US Open, but that greatness has been kind of put on hold by injuries. I've always thought Del Potro's game translates well to Wimbledon, though. Can he take advantage of the Ferrer matchup and break through to reach the semis?
The third "quarter" of the draw is where Federer, Nadal, and nine of the past 10 Wimbledon titles reside. Mr. 70-68 John Isner is there, as well. He's one of those unlucky guys I talked about before. Isner has the game to make a run here, but not if he has to beat Nadal, then Federer, then Murray, then Djokovic. The Andy Murray that's showing up at Wimbledon as the No. 2 seed this year is nowhere close to the Andy Murray that came to Wimbledon in 2012. This version is a guy who finally got the monkey off the back and made the final last year, then won the Olympic gold medal, then captured his first Grand Slam title at the US Open. Oh yeah, he's also ranked No. 2. The pressure on him is always going to be ridiculous, but Andy Murray can handle it. I think the time has never been better for him to send a nation into euphoria by winning Wimbledon.
So who wins that Federer-Nadal matchup and plays Murray in the semis? Grass is by far Roger Federer's best surface, and this is where we're most likely to see Vintage Roger. But he's also lost two Wimbledon finals to Nadal, and Rafa certainly has his number. Should they meet in the quarters, it has a chance to be epic. Like that Sampras-Agassi quarter at the US Open in 2001. I was rooting for Agassi in that one. In this one, I'll be rooting for Federer, and that's who my heart's saying to pick. But my head is saying Nadal. Sadly, I've got to listen to my head. There will be some vindication, though, when Murray beats Nadal in the semis.
My other semi is a rematch of the Olympic bronze medal match between Djokovic and Del Potro. The Argentine got the better of Nole on that day, but Djokovic won't be coming off a loss to Murray this time. Instead, he'll play Murray in the next round, after he gets revenge on Del Po. The result against Murray will be the same, though. He sat out the French Open so that he'd be in shape for Wimbledon. I think it pays off. Britain erupts as Andy Murray ends the 77-year championship drought.
On the women's side, the top two sure haven't been playing nice in the media. It could set up for a great final, though. Serena's resurgence started with a title here last year, then she won on Centre Court again a month later, defeating Maria for the gold medal. Serena currently holds three of the four Grand Slam trophies, with her victory in Paris coming over defending champion Sharapova. They're far-and-away the two clear favorites.
In the semis, Serena could take on the woman she met in last year's final--Agnieszka Radwanska. I picked Radwanska to win the French. That didn't work out too well for me. But I don't see anybody stopping her path to the semifinals here. Her draw shapes up very nicely before a potential semifinal with Serena, which would likely go similarly to last year's final.
Frankly, I don't really see much separating Sharapova, Azarenka and the semis, either. Azarenka's never made the final here, but Wimbledon is where she had her Grand Slam semifinal breakthrough in 2011, and she got back to the semis last year. Vika also won the bronze in singles and the gold in mixed doubles at the Olympics last year. She could face 2011 champion Petra Kvitova in the quarters, but they're both far different players than when Kvitova beat her in the semis en route to that title. Sharapova's toughest challenge prior to the semis could come from former finalist Marion Bartoli in the round of 16, but it'll be a shock if Maria's eliminated before the semifinals.
It's in the semis where I see Maria losing, though, ruining our dream final. I don't know why I like Azarenka in that match. They played in the semis of the French and Sharapova won 6-4 in the third, and grass is arguably Maria's best surface. Even still, I just have a feeling Azarenka beats her and moves into the final against Serena. Vika almost beat Serena in the US Open final last year, and she's the only other reigning Grand Slam champion in the field. But Wimbledon is where the Williams power game is at its most dominant. I don't see that changing now, with Serena at the absolute top of her game. History's also on her side. Serena's looking for her sixth Wimbledon title, and it would be the third time she won in back-to-back years (2002-03, 2009-10, 2012-13).
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