World Baseball Classic Time

I know that 98 percent of you are either lukewarm about the World Baseball Classic or don't care at all, but I couldn't be more excited.  I love the World Baseball Classic.  For the next two weeks, unwatchable Spring Training games are being replaced by intense, playoff-like competition between the 16 best national teams in the world in the only national-team competition that actually includes Major Leaguers.  I think that's probably why I like the WBC so much.

This year had the added twist of the qualifying tournaments, which resulted in Spain and Brazil making the big tournament for the first time.  They also wisely divided the four semifinalists from 2009 into the four different groups.  That means we're not going to get Japan vs. South Korea five times like we did four years ago.  In fact, the three teams that have made the finals in the history of the event (Japan, Cuba, South Korea) will all be in the same second round group, meaning one won't even get to the semis.

And with that, here's my take on the four WBC first round pools, as well as some predictions...

Pool A (Fukuoka, Japan): Japan, Cuba, China, Brazil
If they were going to separate Japan and South Korea (which they had to), they had to put somebody else in the Asian pool.  The winner was Cuba.  And I really mean that.  Because there's no way Japan and Cuba aren't the two teams coming out of this group.  Japan won the first two WBCs and is one of the favorites again, even though this time their team includes only players from the Japanese Major Leagues.  No Ichiro.  No Dice-K.  No Darvish.  That shouldn't matter.  The only challenge they'll face is from Cuba.  With baseball no longer in the Olympics, this is THE event for the Cuban national team, which was embarrassed by not even reaching the semifinals in 2009.  The Cubans feel like they've got something to prove, and they'll take it out on poor China and Brazil.  Brazil upset Panama to win its qualifying tournament and is making its WBC debut, while the Chinese team is improving all the time.  The Chinese eliminated their rivals from Taiwan four years ago and avoided the qualifying tournament as a result.  Since Brazil's also in this group, they might get direct entry again in 2017, but neither team is advancing.  Not over Japan and Cuba.

Pool B (Taichung, Taiwan): South Korea, Netherlands, Australia, Chinese Taipei
This is arguably the weakest of the four groups.  South Korea, the 2008 Olympic champions, lost only one game in the 2009 WBC.  It just happened to be the final.  In their fifth game against Japan in the tournament.  That can't happen this time (the max games they can play is three).  South Korea's clearly the class of this group, but the second spot is wide open.  Any of the three teams can advance.  The Netherlands is seeded second and probably has the slight edge over Australia and Taiwan.  The Dutch team boasts a number of Major Leaguers from Curacao, and talent-wise they're probably the second-best team in this group.  Furthermore, they're not going to need to beat the Dominican Republic twice like they did in 2009.  Australia should be a win and Taiwan is definitely a winnable game.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Netherlands advance to round two.  But I don't think Taiwan can be counted out.  Especially since they're playing at home.  In a group that's not too challenging.  They're ranked sixth in the world and have a bunch of Major Leaguers on the roster.  Australia isn't bad, either.  A three-way tie at 1-2 that brings those wonderful, convoluted WBC tiebreakers into play doesn't seem out of the question.  But I'm going to go with Taiwan taking that second spot behind South Korea.

Pool C (San Juan, Puerto Rico): Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Spain
Along with Pool B, this one figures to easily be the most competitive.  Venezuela, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic are all deep enough to make deep runs in the tournament, but one won't even get out of the first round.  In 2009, that was the Dominican Republic, which was knocked out after being upset by the Netherlands twice.  Venezuela, meanwhile, was a semifinalist in 2009 and is my pick to win it all this year.  It's really not fair how good that team is.  Even without Felix Hernandez.  Venezuela's biggest problem might be finding a way to get everybody into the lineup.  Miguel Cabrera, Pablo Sandoval, Elvis Andrus, Marco Scutaro, Carlos Gonzalez.  Yeah, they're gonna get some hits.  Puerto Rico has the advantage of hosting and boasts its usual array of Major League stars in the lineup, but I'm not sure if the pitching staff is going to hold up against the likes of Venezuela and the Dominican Republic.  Speaking of the DR, they're like Cuba.  Good, hungry and dangerous.  Like Venezuela, they've got an extremely loaded lineup, and I think the pitching, anchored by Edinson Volquez, should be good enough.  Like Brazil, Spain's achievement was in just getting here.  Unfortunately, though, they were drawn into this ultra-strong group.  Spain is completely overmatched against these three opponents.  As for the two that advance, I'm going with Venezuela and the Dominican Republic.

Pool D (Phoenix, Arizona): United States, Mexico, Italy, Canada
Italy gets to hang out with the three North American teams in Phoenix, where the USA and Mexico are the clear favorites.  When the WBC was first concocted, most experts thought the tournament format favored teams like the United States, which can fill six teams of Major League all-stars and still have plenty to spare.  Through two tournaments, though, that hasn't been the case.  So Joe Torre was brought in to manage Team USA.  And he took a different approach while assembling the roster, going with one starter at each position and just a couple of backup utlilty guys.  This should allow the lineup to gel a little better and be a more cohesive unit in the later stages of the tournament.  We'll see if it works out.  Mexico's got Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo, Giants closer Sergio Romo and Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez on its roster, but will need to beat Canada to advance.  The Canadians were as embarrassed as anybody by their showing in 2009, being eliminated first after losing twice (in Toronto!) and having to go through the qualifying tournament despite being ranked sixth in the world.  They got through the qualifier with ease and are back where they belong in the WBC main tournament.  Even without Russell Martin, I like this Canadian team.  They beat the USA in 2006, only to be eliminated on that confusing runs tiebreaker.  They've got the talent to knock off Mexico and advance.  If nothing else, they should get a chance to get revenge on Italy, the team that knocked them out of the 2009 tournament.  Nothing against Italy, arguably the best team in Europe, but the two qualifiers will be from North America.  Probably the US and Mexico.

Pool 1 (Tokyo, Japan): Japan, Cuba, South Korea, Chinese Taipei
Pools A and B move on to Tokyo, where the format changes from round robin to modified double elimination.  Assuming Japan and South Korea win their groups, that means South Korea would play Cuba in the first game of round two.  Winning that game will be paramount, since the loser would have to beat the other again, as well as possibly Japan, to get to the semis.  With Japan playing at home, I think they advance.  For the other spot, I'll take Cuba.

Pool 2 (Miami, Florida): Venezuela, Dominican Republic, United States, Mexico
Fans in Miami, you'll get to see actual Major Leaguers this season!  Of course, it'll be in March.  I think Venezuela's the best team in the tournament, which means they'll get one of the semifinal spots.  The same thing I said about Cuba-Korea applies to USA-DR.  That could be the game of the tournament.  Ultimately, though, I think the American pitching is what makes the slight difference.  The USA takes the other spot.

Semifinals/Championship (San Francisco, California): Japan vs. USA, Venezuela vs. Cuba
The only thing standing between Japan and a third straight trip to the finals, in my opinion, is Team USA.  However, this Japanese team isn't as good as the one in the previous two editions, and that break they'll get after crossing the ocean could be a detriment.  As a result, I'm saying USA in a slight upset.  I keep reiterating that whole "Venezuela is the best team in the tournament" thing.  As much as I respect the Cuban National Team, I think the Venezuelans will be too tough.  In the final, we've got Venezuela vs. the USA.  The pitching is the only thing that concerns me about Venezuela, but not enough for me to stray from my pick.  Venezuela wins the tournament.