Gentlemen (And Danica) Start Your Engines

I've always found it fascinating that NASCAR's biggest race--the Daytona 500--is the first event of the year.  But the cool thing about that is all the hype about the new season and all the hype about Daytona get wrapped into one.  And this year there are plenty of storylines headed into the Great American Race.  So, with Daytona coming up this weekend, I think it's time to take a look at what's ahead for NASCAR 2013.  (Not counting a lot of car changes, which will be really confusing for at least the first couple of weeks, if not the entire season.)

The biggest news coming out of Daytona involves everybody's favorite race chick, Danica Patrick.  After her much-hyped move from IndyCar, Danica makes her debut as a full-time Sprint Cup driver this season.  And she made an immediate splash at Daytona, qualifying on the pole.  In so doing, she's already made NASCAR history in the same way she made IndyCar history.  While I don't think she's going to win on Sunday, qualifying on the pole has definitely stamped Danica as a contender.  At the very least, she has to be in the conversation.  She was successful in IndyCar and needs to have at least a similar level of success in NASCAR to avoid becoming another Dale Earnhardt, Jr.  Rookie of the Year honors will likely come down to Danica and her boyfriend, Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

Jeff Gordon's looking for a bounce-back year, and got off to a good start by claiming the other position on the front row at Daytona.  With his experience, Gordon can never be counted out.  Especially from the front of the pack.  One of the things that makes Daytona so great is that there's always that accident that takes out a good portion of the field.  When the "Big One" hits, you want it to happen behind you.  If you start in the front of the field, the chances of avoiding the "Big One" become a lot better.  With that in mind, I like Gordon's chances at Daytona.  I'm not sure he'll win, but a Top 5 finish seems likely.

The second row is Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch.  That's where I think your winner comes from.  Harvick has looked great since arriving at Daytona, and he won the race in 2007.  He's also undefeated this year, earning his starting position with a win in the qualifying race.  I'm expecting a big year out of Kevin Harvick.  Same thing with Kyle Busch, who I think is the most talented driver on the series.  His reputation as a hothead precedes him, but it doesn't change the fact Kyle Busch is damn good.  Will this finally be the year he harnesses everything into a Sprint Cup championship?
Then there's Jimmie Johnson with his annoying consistency.  He's always in the mix for the championship at the end of the season, which doesn't necessarily mean that much at Daytona, but he's a veteran, and he's won the race before.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Johnson in the front at the end.  Nor would I be surprised to see defending Sprint Cup champ Brad Keselowski.  I also like Greg Biffle and Kasey Kahne's chances starting out of the third row.

Matt Kenseth is trying the impossible.  He's looking to become the first back-to-back Daytona winner since Sterling Marlin in 1994-95.  Last year's race was weird to say the least.  The rainout on Sunday.  The move to Monday night.  The delay after Juan Pablo Montoya drove right into the jet dryer (which is still one of the coolest things I've ever seen).  I give Kenseth a ton of credit for overcoming all of that.  But I highly doubt he's going to win again.

Believe it or not, Tony Stewart has never won the Daytona 500.  With nothing else to accomplish in NASCAR, it wouldn't surprise me if he goes all-out to capture the one remaining thing that he lacks on his resume.  But let's not forget, Michael Waltrip has won this race twice.  So have Jamie McMurray and Trevor Bayne (who did it in his first try).  Daytona has a way of picking her champions in the same way Indy does.  Just like another Tony (Kanaan) at Indy, it might not be meant to be for Tony Stewart and Daytona.  For the longest time, people were saying that about the great Dale Earnhardt.  That's what made it so great when the Intimidator finally got his first (and only) Daytona 500 victory in 1998. 

Daytona, obviously, also marks the start of the Race to the Chase for the Sprint Cup.  There are some drivers who, even now, have to be considered locks to be among the 12 in the Chase field.  All they're worried about is getting a few wins under their belts to be in the best position to the start of the Chase in mid-September.  As for the rest, this is the beginning of a 26-race dogfight to claim the remaining spots. 

Here's who I think will end up capturing the 12 places in the Chase:

• Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin

And if pressed to make a pick about the Daytona 500, I think I'm going with Kevin Harvick to win.  Rounding out the Top 5: Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne.