The Australian Open always feels weird. First of all, it's awkward to be talking about tennis in mid-January. But that's summer in Australia. It's also a little confusing that each day's schedule starts at 7:00 the night before and the night sessions begin at 3 a.m. That's what a 16-hour time difference can do for you, though.
Regardless, the Australian Open is a big deal. It's the first Grand Slam tournament of the year, and it often sets the tone for what we're going to see over the next 10 months. It's also the most unpredictable major. Because the top players usually start their season at the Australian Open, you have no idea how they're going to play after a two-month layoff. Likewise, who's going to be the unheralded player that makes a deep run in Melbourne? You used to be able to count on at least one completely out-of-the-blue semifinalist on the men's side. That is until Novak Djokovic decided he was going to win every year. We still get some surprises on the women's side, but even that tournament is starting to become more predictable.
As I mentioned, Novak Djokovic has made Australia his exclusive domain over the past couple years. This is where he finally broke through for his first Grand Slam title, and Djokovic is the two-time defending champ Down Under. Going into last year's Aussie Open, you could count on one of three guys to win the title. That was before Andy Murray won the Olympics and the U.S. Open to turn the Big Three into a Big Four. However, only three of the four will be in Melbourne because the little Spanish pansy's knee still hurts. That means one semifinal berth is up for grabs...at least for the guys lucky enough to be in the other quarter of the draw.
It's not like Djokovic needed any favors from the draw, but he got one anyway. Murray and Federer are in the same section, while Djokovic gets the fourth semifinalist. I have a hard time picturing a final that doesn't include him. Likewise, Murray and Federer should both get to the semis, although they do both have potentially challenging quarterfinal matchups (Murray vs. Juan Martin Del Potro, Federer vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga). I see them both getting through, however, setting up a sensational semifinal matchup that should be more competitive than their Wimbledon (won by Federer) and Olympic (won by Murray) finals last year.
As for the remaining semifinalist, I'm going with eighth-seeded Janko Tipsarevic, who reached the quarters of the U.S. Open last year. Tipsarevic lost that quarterfinal to David Ferrer, the fifth-best player in the world, who took advantage of Nadal not being there to keep his seed and make it to the U.S. Open semis. He's still ranked fifth and seeded fourth, so Ferrer is the "favorite" to make it out of this section of the draw, but he's obviosuly also the most likely of the four to not get there.
I don't really think I'm going out on a limb to say Djokovic beats Tipsarevic in one semifinal. He owns this tournament the way Nadal owns Roland Garros. The other semi should be interesting, though. My predicition about Andy Murray came true. A sleeping giant was awakened with that Olympic gold medal. But Roger's also on a mission. He doesn't want to wait two years for another Slam again. We'll see a very focused Roger Federer over the next two weeks in Melbourne. I'm not sure it matters, though. I see Murray winning, setting up a rematch of his epic Australian Open matchup with Djokovic last year. The outcome, however, will be the same. Novak Djokovic wins his third straight Australian Open title.
As for the women, there are three players that stand above the rest. The top three players in the world--Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams. Out of the three, though, Serena has to be the odds-on favorite. She lost in the first round of the French Open last year, then won both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open while throwing in an Olympic gold medal to boot. Serena's lost once since Wimbledon. If Serena opens this year the way she ended last year, she'll be very tough to beat.
But if there's anyone who can beat her, it's probably Victoria Azarenka. Azarenka won her first Grand Slam title here last year, then held down the No. 1 ranking for most of the year. She won Olympic bronze in London, and almost won her second Slam of the year at the U.S. Open, giving Serena all she could handle and then some in the final. Vika and Serena are on track for a semifinal meeting, but, as much as I like Azarenka's chances, I'm not certain that matchup's a guarantee. Former No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki should've won this tournament two years ago. She's still looking for that first Grand Slam title and has the game to pull off the mild upset of Azarenka in the quarters.
Sharapova's path to the final is much clearer. She's the class of the field in the bottom half of the draw. A phenomenal matchup against Venus Williams awaits her in the third round, but at this point in their careers, Sharapova should be able to handle Venus. Former champ Li Na and Aussie favorite Sam Stosur are also in the bottom half of the draw, but if Sharapova's on her game, neither one should be a threat. Fourth-seeded Aggie Radwanska and fifth-seeded Angelique Kerber are both capable of deep runs, but I don't think either one's a contender for the title. The only other name to watch out for in the bottom half of the women's draw is Ana Ivanovic, a former finalist here and former French Open champion. Last year, she showed signs that her game has finally returned. If that's indeed the case and she continues to play the way she did when she was No. 1 in the world, Ivanovic could be an outside contender.
My four women's semifinalists are Wozniacki, Serena, Ivanovic and Sharapova (that's a good-looking bunch of semifinalists!). If Wozniacki and Ivanovic get there, it would be impressive runs. But Serena and Maria would easily win those two matchups. They're the two best players in the women's game right now. Should they both get there, it would be an incredible final. But I remember the Serena Williams that dominated the women's game. Serena's close to that level again. If she keeps it up for two weeks, she goes for her second "Serena Slam" in Paris.
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