I've always thought the Divisional Playoffs were the best weekend of football out there. The eight best teams, all of whom are two wins away from the Super Bowl. We've got seven of the eight division champions playing this week. The only division that's out? The NFC East. Did anybody see that coming? The only division with two teams left? The NFC West. The same division that two years ago was being ridiculed as the "worst division in NFL history." Oh, how times have changed.
We've also got three regular season rematches, two of which were December games. That should make things even more interesting. After a Wild Card Weekend that proved to be rather uneventful and incredibly disappointing, I've got a feeling we're in store for some good ones this week. Of the eight teams playing, I think five have a legitimate chance to not just get to the Super Bowl, but to win it.
AFC
#4 Ravens (11-6) at #1 Broncos (13-3): Denver-I've gotta admit, a small part of me wanted Indy to win last week just so that I could have the sheer joy of watching Peyton Manning crush the Colts in the playoffs. But I'll take one final chance to see Ray Lewis in action. Who would've thought when Peyton went to Denver that they'd be the odds-on favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl in Year I? Well, that's exactly what the Broncos are, as they enter the playoffs with an 11-game winning streak and the AFC's top seed.
I'll be the first to admit that the teams the Broncos played during their winning streak weren't exactly the cream of the crop of the NFL. With one exception. In Week 15, they went into Baltimore and crushed the Ravens, 34-17. That was all the statement you needed about the Denver Broncos. A week off, the home crowd and Peyton Manning will only help them against the Ravens. Baltimore was impressive last week, but Peyton's current team is NOT Peyton's former team. The Broncos are better than the Colts in every respect. The offense gets better every week, and that solid defense is incredibly underrated.
With all that being said, I don't anticipate this game being the Denver cakewalk so many experts are predicting. The Ravens are playoff-tested, and they've got the extra motivation to extend Ray Lewis' career, even if it's just for another week. However, Baltimore simply doesn't have enough weapons to knock off the Broncos. For everything that's been said/written about his career postseason record, Peyton has beaten the Ravens in the playoffs twice before. He knows how to pick apart that defense as well as anybody. The AFC Championship Game's going to be in Denver. As for this week, 30-17 Broncos.
#3 Texans (13-4) at #2 Patriots (12-4): New England-That Monday night game four weeks ago was a statement game in more than one respect. The Texans came in flying high, with the No. 1 seed all but guaranteed. Then they went into Foxboro and got their butts kicked all over the field. 42-14 later we knew which one was the better team. As a result, the Patriots leapfrogged the Texans in the standings, got the bye, and ended up as the home team in the playoff rematch.
Houston made a statement of its own last week against Cincinnati, though. The Texans came into the playoffs reeling, but it sure didn't like it. They controlled the game from the start, never letting the Bengals get into it. The 19-13 score made the game look closer than it actually was. All the flaws that the Patriots exposed a month ago still exist, though. Making matters worse, they're playing the Patriots in Foxboro in January. Had the Texans won the regular season meeting and this game was in Houston, I'd like their chances a little better. But beating Bradicheck in New England in the playoffs is a tall order. The Texans should be up for the challenge, but that might not be enough. They'll need to play the perfect game to beat them. Problem is, Tom Brady probably won't let that happen.
I don't think it's possible for the Texans to be as bad this week as they were the last time they traveled to New England. But that doesn't mean the result will be any different. We've got another Manning vs. Brady AFC Championship Game in store. The Patriots move within a win of getting back to the Super Bowl, 27-14.
NFC
#5 Seahawks ("12-5") at #1 Falcons (13-3): Atlanta-Why is everyone so down on the Falcons? They might be the least-heralded No. 1 seed in NFL playoff history. Everybody thinks they're going to lose. I don't understand why. Atlanta went 10-0 in non-division games this season, and there aren't anymore NFC South teams left. Besides, they're out to prove why they earned the No. 1 seed. Most importantly, they don't want what's happened to them in the playoffs the last two years (home loss to the Packers, embarrassed by the Giants) to happen to them again this season. If it's possible for the team with the best record in football to be underrated, the Falcons might be.
As for the Seahawks, I don't get the buzz about them either. Seattle's a very good team. What they did in Washington last week, coming back from 14-0 down to win 24-14, proved it. They were the only road team to win last weekend. But that doesn't mean they're going to roll all over the Falcons, like so many people are saying they will. I don't know if it's overhyping the Seahawks or underestimating the Falcons or a combination of both, but I simply don't see it. They don't just have to fly cross-country again (for the second straight week). They're taking on a dynamic Atlanta offense that's built for a fast track in a dome. More importantly, the Falcons are a better team than the Seahawks. People seem to be conveniently forgetting that.
The last time the Falcons were the No. 1 seed, they ran into a buzzsaw and lost at home in the Divisional Playoffs. They're out to make amends for that performance. And while the Seahawks are on a roll, they're not the 2011 Packers. Seattle's not the same team on the road as they are at home, and I'd be curious to see how different last week's game would've been had the Seahawks been going against a healthy Robert Griffin III. As far as I know, there are no such concerns like that about Matt Ryan. Atlanta wins, 27-23.
#3 Packers ("12-5") at #2 49ers (11-4-1): San Francisco-Without question, this is the game of the week. That's why they put it on Saturday night. The winner here will be the favorite in the NFC Championship Game, regardless of the opponent. Every prediction I've seen has the Packers going to the Super Bowl. They'd be wise to hold off on those picks, though. Because the 49ers and Packers are about as evenly-matched as any two playoff teams can be.
Green Bay was perhaps the most dominant of the four winners last week, which is no surprise. Two years ago, the Packers got everyone healthy just in time for the playoffs, and we all remember what happened. Well, call this a little dose of deja vu, because it looks like the same thing might be happening in Green Bay this season. But last year, after a 15-1 regular season, they ended up with a tough matchup against the Giants in the playoffs, and they ended up on the short end. This 49ers team reminds me a lot of last year's Giants. I don't know if people are down on San Francisco because they think Green Bay's better or the 49ers are just underrated, but that defense is Super Bowl-caliber, and Colin Kaepernick adds so many more dimensions to a dynamic, exciting offense. This is going to be a phenomenal game.
This was the marquee matchup of Week 1, when the 49ers upset the Packers at Lambeau. That set the tone for San Francisco's season, while also setting up the playoff rematch for the Bay Area instead of the Frozen Tundra. That's not a small thing. In frigid Green Bay, this would be a completely different game. But being in San Francisco levels the playing field. This one's so close. Almost too close to call. It's going to come down to the small things. Who can make the big plays and limit turnovers? Call me crazy, but I've got a hunch it's going to be the 49ers. 24-21 San Francisco.
Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 2-2
Season: 172-87-1
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