Saturday, September 22, 2012

NFL Week 3 Picks

It's only Week 3, yet the parity in the NFL has already been made abundantly clear.  There are only six 2-0 teams (four of whom face each other this week) and six 0-2 teams (two of whom play this week), leaving the rest of the league at 1-1 after their first game.  That's a whopping 20 teams!  So, basically, we don't know much about who's good and who's not, especially since some of the good teams have already played each other and one of the 2-0 teams (Philadelphia) has a point differential of just +2.  After Week 3, I doubt we'll know much more than we did last week.  With that in mind, here are the picks:

Rams (1-1) at Bears (1-1): Chicago-The thing about these Thursday night games is that it seems like we go a loooooooooooong time between games for the teams that play in them.  Take the Bears.  It seriously seems like it's been weeks since we've seen them play.  They looked great in a Week 1 home win over Indianapolis, then ran into that buzzsaw known as a Packers team that needed a win at Lambeau Field.  The Rams, meanwhile, picked up a win last week against a Redskins squad that might not actually be as good as everybody thought after Week 1.  They've got a good coach in Jeff Fisher and will win games like that, but beating the Bears in Chicago is an entirely different matter.  I don't see it happening.

Bills (1-1) at Browns (0-2): Buffalo-Poor Cleveland.  A one-point loss to the Eagles, then they lose by a touchdown to the rival Bengals in a game that they had a chance to win.  Now they take on a Bills team that looked really bad in Week 1 and really good in Week 2.  I think the fact that they were playing Kansas City had a lot to do with the Bills jumping out to that big lead last week.  The Browns are on the same level as the Chiefs.  As a result, I'm going with the Bills.

Buccaneers (1-1) at Cowboys (1-1): Dallas-Which Cowboys team will show up?  The one that looked great against the Giants?  Or the one that laid a complete egg in last week's loss in Seattle?  I could probably ask that same question about the Bucs, who probably should've also beaten the Giants if not for Eli Manning and that fourth-quarter comeback.  This could be one of the more telling games of the weekend, since we may finally find out where these two teams stand.  Since it's the Cowboys' home opener, I'm taking Dallas in a close one.

Lions (1-1) at Titans (0-2): Detroit-Detroit finally gets a regularly-scheduled primetime game and look what happens.  Although, I do give the Lions a lot of credit for keeping it close against a 49ers team that might be the best in the NFL.  Tennessee has gotten its butt whooped twice...by the Patriots and Chargers.  In other words, no shame in that.  I think they're probably the second-best 0-2 team behind the Saints.  Unfortunately, they'll be the best 0-3 team after losing to the Lions this week.

Jaguars (0-2) at Colts (1-1): Indianapolis-Don't let last week's win fool you.  The Andrew Luck edition of the Indianapolis Colts are still nowhere near the quality of the Peyton Manning version.  It just so happens they played equally bad Minnesota at home.  Likewise, they're playing Jacksonville at home this week.  The Colts will be a very deceptive 2-1 going into their incredibly early bye.

Jets (1-1) at Dolphins (1-1): Jets-The Jets' need for attention really is hilarious.  Mark Sanchez plays like crap against the Steelers, so people start to wonder if that means Tebow will play this week.  Yet the only thing people can talk about is how Tebow's been a non-factor in the offense so far (that's what happens when you get a guy for no reason other than publicity) and how he might want out of New York after the season.  Even Rex Ryan is sick of talking about Tim Tebow!  Did anybody ever think that would actually happen?  The Dolphins benefitted from playing the Raiders last week, but the Jets aren't the same quality as Oakland.  Just like Miami is nowhere near the same quality as Pittsburgh.

49ers (2-0) at Vikings (0-2): San Francisco-The 49ers continue their tour of the NFC North this week in Minnesota.  After what happened last week in Foxboro, I'm not going to say that the Vikings have no chance.  But I'm one of the many who thinks San Francisco just might be the best team in the NFL.  Minnesota shouldn't be a problem for them.

Chiefs (0-2) at Saints (0-2): New Orleans-One of these teams will finally pick up its first win!  Kansas City hasn't shown any signs of actually being this "elite" team that a lot of people think they have the potential to be.  The Saints haven't, either.  Before the season started, I was one of the few people who predicted this year could be a mess in New Orleans.  It's not entirely out of the question to envision the Saints at 1-4 at their bye week.  With the 1 coming this week.

Bengals (1-1) at Redskins (1-1): Cincinnati-This game's a toss-up.  Like the archrival Cowboys, the Redskins finally get to play a home game in Week 3, and it should be fun for the FedEx Field Faithful to finally see RG3 live and in person.  That's why some part of me is tempted to pick the Redskins.  But the rest of me is more inclined to go with Cincinnati.  Even though the Bengals almost blew it against the Browns last week, I think the better team wins this one.  That's Cincinnati.

Eagles (2-0) at Cardinals (2-0): Philadelphia-One of the two 2-0 vs. 2-0 matchups pits an Eagles team that's won its two games by a combined two points against the most surprising undefeated squad of all--Arizona.  Now, I'll be the first to admit I didn't see last week coming (as evidence by my first strike in my survival pick 'em league).  Maybe that's a sign the Cardinals are for real.  Or maybe it's just proof that the Patriots took them lightly.  Either way, I think it's gotta be pretty good to be an Eagles fan right now.  They haven't played well at all (they committed nine turnovers in their first two games), but they're 2-0 and in first place, so who really cares?  Philly's actually going to play well sooner or later.  It might be this week.  But with the way things are going, I think the Eagles win anyway.

Falcons (2-0) at Chargers (2-0): Atlanta-The other 2-0 vs. 2-0 game.  San Diego's finally playing like the team we've all thought they can be for the past few years.  Atlanta, meanwhile, I've got ranked at No. 3 behind San Francisco and Houston in my current NFL power rankings.  Basically what I'm saying here is that I love this matchup.  The fact that the game's in San Diego is obviously Advantage Chargers, but I was really encouraged by the Falcons' effort in that debacle of a "game" on Monday night.  They can really prove that they're among the NFL's elite with a win over the Chargers in SoCal.

Texans (2-0) at Broncos (1-1): Denver-So, the Broncos won't go undefeated this year.  I still liked what I saw from Peyton with that comeback after the Falcons took that big lead, though.  As for the Texans, they've looked unbeatable against Miami and Jacksonville.  Houston might be the best team in the AFC, but it's also necessary to consider that the teams they've played so far are Miami and Jacksonville.  CBS gets another good one in the doubleheader game.  This is a great matchup between two good teams.  When he was in Indy, it was very rare for Peyton to lose two weeks in a row.  Even though his horse is different and his jersey is orange now, I see that trend continuing in Denver.

Steelers (1-1) at Raiders (0-2): Pittsburgh-Welcome back to the 1970s!  OK, there are some major differences between Steelers-Raiders now and Steelers-Raiders then.  For starters, only one of these teams is good now.  Even without Harrison and Polamalu, Pittsburgh should have more than enough fire power to take down Oakland.  Especially since the Raiders' offense was one of the most anemic in the NFL in the first two weeks.

Patriots (1-1) at Ravens (1-1): Baltimore-Most people expected this one to be a battle of undefeateds, but the Ravens' one-point loss and Stephen Gostkowski's missed field goal took care of that.  Regardless, it's an ideal matchup for an early-season Sunday night game.  The rematch of last season's AFC title game.  It's crazy to think that the loser will actually dip below .500 on the season.  I'm not sure the last time that happened for either team, yet come Sunday night at midnight, that'll be the case for one of them.  New England lost a lot more than a game last week.  They're going to be hurting without Aaron Hernandez and all that he brings to the offense.  As a result, I like the Ravens defense in this one.

Packers (1-1) at Seahawks (1-1): Green Bay-The Packers get a Cowboys-like Thursday night-Monday night break.  And just like Dallas, that extended break ends with a trip to Seattle.  The Seahawks pulled the upset last week, but I think that had more to do with the Cowboys' effort than their own.  The Packers learned from that game, and, unlike Dallas, they're not going to take the Seahawks lightly.  I'd normally go with Green Bay anyway, but especially with extra rest.

Last Week: 10-6
This Week: 1-0
Season: 24-9

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