I was asked today how I feel about the Yankees' chances in the playoffs. Like most, I'm assuming that the Yankees are going to end up in the playoffs one way or another. In fact, I still predict they'll win the AL East. But winning the World Series? I can't say I see that happening. This Yankees team has losing the Division Series winning all over it. If they do win the pennant, that wouldn't entirely surprise me either, though. Point is...I really have no idea what's going to happen. There are flaws in every potential playoff team. I know that one of them has to win the World Series. I'm just having a hard time figuring out which.
Let's start with the Rangers. I don't see how it's possible they lose the World Series again. Texas winning a third straight pennant could happen. They're the best team in the American League, and if everything clicks the way it has the last two seasons, I'd still have to say the Rangers are the team to beat in AL. And if they do get back to the World Series, this time I see them finishing the job. I don't see how they can't. But an ALCS loss is also something I can easily see.
The Yankees? Assuming they get the No. 2 seed in the AL, that means they'll play the Central winner. If that's the White Sox, the Yankees probably survive. If that's the Tigers, I don't think there's any way they do. They lost in five to Detroit in that crazy Division Series last season, so the Tigers know they can beat them, and Detroit's a better team this year. The Tigers have finally started to play like the team they should've been all season. If they get into the playoffs, they might be my pick to win the AL pennant, if not the whole thing.
Assuming the wild card game is Orioles-A's, I'd say the winner has absolutely no chance of reaching the World Series. Baltimore would be completely overmatched against Texas, while Oakland's lack of offense will be problematic come October. Again, I'm still not sure how the A's are good. But pitching is what wins you games in the playoffs and that's Oakland's bread-and-butter. Can they shut down the lineups of the Orioles, Rangers and Yankees/Tigers in succession though? I'm banking on "No."
As for the other three teams alive in the AL--the Rays, White Sox and Angels--I think only one of them actually has a chance to do some damage should they make it to October. The Rays are always dangerous down the stretch, so I'm not christening Baltimore as a participant in the wild card game just yet (the final series is Orioles-Rays). I don't think they have enough to win eight playoff games with that lineup, though. Should the White Sox get in, they'll need to rely on their pitching. It's possible they do enough to get by the Yankees in the Division Series, but both the Yankees and Rangers ain't happening.
The Angels, however. That's the team everybody else needs to hope doesn't claw its way into that second wild card. Like the Tigers, the Angels figured out that they're supposed to be good too late. Should they manage to get in, though, the Angels are scary. Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana and C.J. Wilson make up a powerful rotation, the bullpen is very good, and need I mention the fact that they have Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo?
Same thing with the four National League teams. Washington might have the pitching depth to survive not using its best pitcher in the playoffs. But you can't say the Nationals are better off with Ross Detwiler or John Lannan as their fourth starter as opposed to Strasburg (especially if they go up against somebody like San Francisco and you have a Detwiler vs. Zito matchup). Their lack of playoff experience could come into play, too. Look what happened tho the Reds against the Phillies two years ago.
Speaking of the Reds, they're probably going to end up with an unfavorable matchup against the Giants. I'm not saying Cincinnati wouldn't win that series, but if that is the matchup, I'd have to take San Francisco. But I can easily see the Reds winning that series, too. Out of the five National League playoff teams, the Reds have both the best lineup and the best bullpen. If I was picking a National League pennant winner right now, though, I'd have to pick the Giants. San Francisco has the pitching, and the lineup's better than it was two years ago when they won the World Series. In fact, I think that, overall, the Giants are a better team now than in 2010.
Atlanta is Exhibit A as to why two wild cards is a dumb idea. The Braves are clearly the fourth-best team in the National League. Like I said, the Braves are the fourth-best team in the National League. Sure, they've got the personnel and the familiarity to knock of Washington in the Division Series, but I don't see them getting by either the Reds or the Giants in the NLCS. Although, I'm not exactly rooting against them, since it would be incredible to see Chipper end his career by playing in one last World Series (which would be his fourth). It looks like the Cardinals are going to be Atlanta's guest in the inaugural NL Wild Card Game. Common sense says that St. Louis has no chance of getting back to the World Series, but last year they only made the playoffs because the Braves choked and look what happened. As a result, I'm not counting the Cardinals completely out. I do consider them a longshot, though.
Ultimately, every team that's going to make the playoffs has its flaws. Two of them have to meet in the World Series, though. And since I think they have the fewest flaws in their respective leagues, I'd have to say that right now, I think the two most likely to earn those World Series berths are the Tigers and Giants. It wouldn't surprise me if they both lose in the Division Series, though.
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