The 2020 Candidates

Today the IOC went through the formality of officially eliminating the two cities that had absolutely no chance of hosting the 2020 Olympics--Doha and Baku from the race.  Doha, in its delusional view of things, is inevitably going to cry about it and claim that the IOC is "closing the door on the Arab world."  Even if the incredibly oppressive heat and Qatar's backward view of women's role in society, the proposed October schedule would've been the deal-breaker.  That wouldn't work for the United States or any European countries.  Besides, even if Doha had made it to the final round, there's no way it would've won.  They haven't hosted the 2022 World Cup yet, and that event should be the test to see if Qatar can actually host major sporting events.  And there was no way the IOC was going to pick Doha and deal with the same criticism FIFA rightfully received after Qatar bought that World Cup.

 Some people thought they'd take Doha into the final round just for the sake of having more than three candidates, but I think that would've been a silly reason.  Madrid, Tokyo and Istanbul all have a realistic shot of hosting.  Let them battle it out.  What would've been the purpose to bring Doha along for the ride and make them go through the process for another year and a half when they were inevitably going to finish no better than fourth?  That's one of the reasons the U.S. didn't bid this time.  Of course, the money that goes into it wouldn't be a problem for Qatar, but I think excluding Doha from the final list was a good call.  Especially since the other three bids are all very good.  Let's take a look at them:

MADRID

Pros: Madrid is bidding for the third straight time, and finished second for both the 2012 and 2016 Games.  The IOC tends to reward persistence (2018 Winter Olympic host Pyeongchang won on its third bid last year), and the Madrid bid is just as solid now as it was four years ago, when it almost pulled off the shocker.  Perhaps the only reason they lost in 2016 was because they didn't want to go back-to-back in Europe.  That's obviously not a problem this time.  In addition, most of the facilities are already built, so Madrid's budget could be considerably less than the previous bids.  Giving the Games to Madrid would also be a nice way to honor the legacy of late IOC President Juan Antonio Samaranch.

Cons: The biggest con for Madrid is the fact that the Spanish economy is in the tank right now, and there's no guarantee it'll get any better in the next seven years.  (That was also the case for Rome, which is why Rome dropped out of the race.)  But the Spanish government has pledged full backing.  Regardless, will the economic concers doom Madrid's chances?

TOKYO

Pros: Tokyo also bid for 2016, but lost to Rio.  On paper, this is viewed as the best bid, and many consider Tokyo to be the favorite.  I was skeptical of Tokyo's decision to bid so soon after the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan early last year, but the Japanese economy seems to be recovering fine.  And like Spain, the Japanese government thinks the Olympics in Tokyo would generate a huge amount of revenue for the country.  It's also a very compact bid, which the voters like.  Perhaps the biggest think working in Tokyo's favor, though, is the fact that it's the only remaining city that's previously hosted an Olympics, the highly successful 1964 Games.

Cons: While Tokyo has a lot of pros, it's staring at one very big con.  The 2018 Winter Olympics are in Korea.  I don't see the IOC giving consecutive Olympics to the Far East and its highly unfavorable time zone.  Further working against Tokyo is the fact that 2020 is only 12 years removed from the Beijing Games.  Is that too soon?  It might be.

ISTANBUL

Pros: A few years ago, Istanbul announced that it was going to bid for the Olympics every time until they finally won.  They didn't bid for 2016, but for the most part, they've been men of their word.  And this might be Istanbul's time.  Unlike the other two countries, Turkey's economy is fine.  Combine that with near-unanimous support within the country to host the Games.  Turkey has also successfully hosted a number of major international events in recent years (the 2010 World Basketball Championships and 2012 World Indoor Track & Field Championships), proving that it can handle bigtime events.  And Istanbul's location makes it an incredibly compelling candidate.  The Olympics have never been held in an Arab country, and with the Games headed to South America in 2016 and a South African bid for 2024 likely, that's another opportunity to bring the Olympic Movement to another part of the world.  Turkey straddles Europe and Asia (I think the continental divide is somewhere within the country), and Africa is right there, as well.  They've never had an opportunity to have the Olympics within the borders of three different continents like this before.

Cons: One way or another, it looks like Turkey is going to be hosting a major sporting event in 2020.  Initially, Turkey was the only bidder for the 2020 European Soccer Championships (although UEFA has since re-opened the bid process).  It would be impossible for Istanbul to host the Euro final and the Olympics within a month of each other.  In fact, the IOC prohibits countries from hosting any major international sporting events the same year it's hosting the Olympics, probably for that reason.  The IOC will announce the Olympic host first.  If Istanbul wins, they'll have to withdraw their Euro bid.

My take: For some reason, I really want Istanbul to win.  I think an Olympics in that part of the world would be really cool, and Turkey seems so eager to host.  But I don't think it'll be Istanbul.  I've been saying since it almost beat Rio that 2020 would be Madrid's turn (it's the only major European capital never to have hosted the Olympics).  Even though Tokyo is listed as the "favorite," I still believe that to be true.  The bid has no holes in it, and if the Spanish economy doesn't take a turn for the worse in the next year and a half, the financial worries will be greatly reduced.  But mostly, I don't see the mostly-European IOC voters going back to the Far East when they can award another Games to Europe with very little controversy.  This race is way too close to call, though.  I can see any of these three cities hearing its name called in Buenos Aires on September 7, 2013.