2012 French Open Preview

I was debating which preview would go up today--Indy 500 or French Open.  But since the French Open draw came out today, I'm going to save my Indy pick for tomorrow.

It's evidently some sort of rule that Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal aren't allowed to be on the same side of a Grand Slam draw.  Ever since Roger dropped to No. 3, it's been possible that they could play in the semis, but every time they've drawn Roger vs. Djokovic and Rafa vs. Andy Murray.  The draw is supposedly random, but I don't think I'm buying it.  They want that Nadal vs. Fill In the Blank rivalry as the final.  I'm sure Andy Murray's just as sick of always getting matched up with Nadal as Roger and Novak are of seeing each other.

Anyway, Grand Slam semifinals have been pretty much the exclusive domain of the Big Four since they all made the semis at Roland Garros last year.  In the last four Grand Slam tournaments, they've combined for 15 of the 16 semifinal appearances, with Roger's loss to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in last year's Wimbledon quarters the only thing preventing a clean sweep.  Nevertheless, it's not a guarantee that they'll all be in the semis again.

Of the Big Four, Murray is probably the most vulnerable.  Clay's his weakest surface.  He knows it, and everyone else knows it, too.  He could end up facing a Frenchman, Richard Gasquet, in the round of 16.  If Murray gets through that match, I don't see him losing in the quarters.  But I can't say with certainty that I see him beating Gasquet.  In fact, I think this is the Grand Slam that breaks the trend.  We won't have Djokovic-Federer and Nadal-Murray in the semis for the third straight Slam (and the fourth time in the last five).  I'm taking Mikhail Youzhny to make the semis from that section of the draw.

This is the tournament where's Roger's had the most problems.  It, famously, is the last one that he won, and his 2009 title remains his only French Open crown.  He's got a tough quarterfinal matchup against either Juan Martin Del Potro or Tomas Berdych, two guys who play him well and have beaten him in Slams before, before the showdown with Djokovic.  Last year, Roger handed Novak his first defeat of the season in the French Open semifinals, only to once again lose to Nadal in the final.  It was probably Federer's best match of the year.  If they play again, it could be a classic like their U.S. Open semis in 2010 and 2011.

I see Djokovic beating Roger and setting up our fourth consecutive Djokovic-Nadal Grand Slam final (BTW, that's really getting boring).  And as much as I despise Rafael Nadal, there's no denying he's the best clay-court player on the planet.  He's lost a grand total of one match at the French Open in his career.  Djokovic has won four of the last five Grand Slam tournaments.  The only one he's missing is the 2011 French Open crown that went to Nadal.  I'm not saying Djokovic can't continue his dominance over Nadal.  What I am saying, though, is that I've learned better than to pick against Rafael Nadal at the French Open.

On the women's side, the last year and a half have been so random that you could probably pull a name out of a hat and have just as much chance of picking the winner as any of the so-called "experts."  In the last five Grand Slam tournaments, there have been five different winners, and all four of the reigning Grand Slam titleholders have won just the single Grand Slam title. 

This tournament has been the most random of all.  Last year's final pitted Li Na against Francesca Schiavone, who won the title in 2010 over Samantha Stosur (in 2009, it was Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Dinara Safina, who was somehow ranked No. 1 at the time and is now off the tour).  With all that being said, I think 2012 could actually bring some sembelance of order to the French Oepn women's draw.  Victoria Azarenka took over the No. 1 ranking by winning the Australian Open, and she's playing like she's No. 1.  And Maria has looked great all year.  She lost to Azarenka in the final in Melbourne and looks primed to make a run at her first French Open title, which would complete a career Grand Slam.

The last two Grand Slam champions could meet in the quarters, as Azarenka and Stosur have been drawn together.  The winner of that match could see No. 3 Agnieszka Radwanska in the semis.  Radwanska's rise up the rankings this year has been incredibly quiet, and she's definitely a sleeper.  However, she has a fairly tough draw, which could either work in her favor or work against her.  Radwanska will likely face Venus Williams in the second round, then has back-to-back former French Open champs (Kuznetsova and Ana Ivanovic) just to get to the quarterfinals.  Should she get through that incredibly tough first week, I can see Radwanska playing on Saturday of Week 2.

The other two reiging Grand Slam champions, Li and Petra Kvitova, are also on a collision course for a quarterfinal matchup.  Schiavone's also in this quarter of the draw.  Since winning Wimbledon, Kvitova has emerged as one of the most consistent players on Tour, and she's played her way up to the No. 4 ranking.  But somebody whose game is so well-suited to Wimbledon you have to think is vulnerable at Roland Garros.  Was Li a one-year wonder?  That's the question everybody's going to be asking.  They asked that about Schiavone last year, and she proved her 2010 title wasn't a fluke by getting back to the final.  I'm sure Li and Kvitova would've been happier to see her name elsewhere in the draw.

Clay is Maria's weakest surface, and she's never really played that well here.  But she's on a mission.  Sharapova might be playing the best tennis of her career.  And after losing the final at both Wimbledon and the Australian Open, she's desperate to add another Grand Slam title to her resume.  Serena Williams is the No. 5 seed and Maria's potential quarterfinal opponent.  You never really know what you're going to get from Serena.  After finally losing the No. 1 ranking, Caroline Wozniacki has dropped all the way to No. 9.  She's in this section of the draw, too.  So is Maria Kirilenko.  Those two both stand in the way of that Maria-Serena quarterfinal.

As for the pick, I think Azarenka and Radwanska both get through to the semis, where Radwanska's tough first week helps her reach her first Grand Slam final.  On the bottom half, I'm playing the "It wasn't a fluke" card for Li.  I think she gets back to the semis, where she loses to Sharapova.  And, even though common sense tells me not to (I think she's equally capable of being an early-round upset victim), I'm taking Maria Sharapova to win her first French Open title.