Last year, the AL East was the best and most competitive division in baseball by far. Three teams made the playoffs, with the Blue Jays coming literally within an inch of winning the World Series. And it figures to be more of the same this year. Toronto, the Yankees and Boston should once again be in a three-way race at the top, and all six of those possible combinations seem very plausible. It's also very realistic to think they can all win 90 games. And that they'll all be in the playoffs once again.
It's such a razor-thin margin between the three that they all legitimately believe they're the best team in the AL East, if not the entire American League (although, I'm sure Seattle would have something to say about that). It's such a narrow margin that their games against each other could very well determine who wins the division. Whoever has the best record in their 26 games against the other two likely wins the division. And whoever has the worst record in those 26 games among the three likely starts the playoffs on the road.
Whoever wins the AL East will almost certainly be the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. As we saw last season, that's such a huge advantage. Especially since second place means not only having to play in the Wild Card Series, but also having to start the Division Series (against a very familiar opponent) on the road. So, yeah, with this division especially the difference between first and second place is massive! And winning the division could very well be the difference between winning the pennant and making an early playoff exit.
Let's not forget about the Orioles and Rays, either. Baltimore has been one of the most disappointing teams over the past two seasons, but still has most of the pieces from a team that was the AL's No. 1 seed in 2023. And Tampa Bay's 2025 season was never really able to get going because of the stadium situation. Now that they're back at home, expect the Rays to rebound. Enough to contend in a loaded division, though? That's the question.
1. New York Yankees: The Yankees essentially decided to run it back with a team that got its asses kicked by Toronto in both the regular season and the playoffs last year. So, why do I have them as the division favorites? Two reasons. First, despite their struggles against the Blue Jays last season, they still finished with 94 wins and tied for the best record in the American League. Second, they didn't have Gerrit Cole last year. They'll get their ace back sometime in May or June, which obviously makes their rotation that much better.
And the team that they had was already pretty good. Aaron Judge is an otherworldly talent. Keeping Cody Bellinger was the offseason priority for a reason. He showed last year that he's a perfect fit in this lineup. And I wouldn't be surprised if Ben Rice breaks out even more now that he's entrenched as the starter at first base. They also have depth, which is something that's been lacking in recent years, and will help them navigate Giancarlo Staton's inevitable stint on the IL. And, if the bullpen is even remotely better than the sorry unit that went out there most nights last year, there's reason to think running it back might not have been a terrible strategy after all.
Projected Lineup: Trent Grisham-CF, Aaron Judge-RF, Cody Bellinger-LF, Giancarlo Stanton-DH, Ben Rice-1B, Jazz Chisholm Jr.-2B, Austin Wells-C, Jose Caballero-SS, Ryan McMahon-3B
Projected Rotation: Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, Ryan Weathers, Luis Gil
Closer: David Bednar
Projected Record: 95-67
2. Toronto Blue Jays: Was Toronto's dream 2025 season a flash in the pan that was the result of everyone staying healthy and having career years at the same time? Or was it the Blue Jays marking their arrival as a consistent force in the American League? Or maybe it was a combination of both. Personally, I can't possibly see every player on the Blue Jays having as good a year in 2026 as he did in 2025. But they also don't all need to. Because the way they play where they grind out at-bats and wear you down forces opposing pitchers into making mistakes, which is just as damaging.
Anyway, Vlad Guerrero Jr. signing the long-term extension at the start of last season is obviously what got everything started. Locking up your best player for a decade and having him play like it certainly shows the investment was worth it. Vlad Jr.'s far from alone, too. Yes, they lost Bo Bichette, but they replaced him with Japanese import Kazuma Okamoto. And they added Dylan Cease to front a rotation that's otherwise intact from the World Series (although Trey Yesavage is already out to start the year). So, even if they're not as good as last season, the Blue Jays will still be pretty damn good!
Projected Lineup: George Springer-DH, Nathan Lukes-LF, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-1B, Alejandro Kirk-C, Daulton Varsho-CF, Kazuma Okamoto-3B, Addison Barger-RF, Ernie Clement-2B, Andres Gimenez-SS
Projected Rotation: Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Max Scherzer, Jose Berrios
Closer: Jeff Hoffman
Projected Record: 93-69
3. Boston Red Sox: Seemingly all of the breakout stars at the WBC were Red Sox. Roman Anthony (USA). Wilyer Abreu (Venezuela). Jarren Duran (Mexico). Masataka Yoshida (Japan). Greg Weissert (Italy). They're, for the most part, all young, too. This youth movement in Boston started with the Rafael Devers trade in the middle of last season, and this young core will make or break the Red Sox' season. They'll be complimented by some veterans, although I think the loss of Alex Bregman could be significant since it means they'll need to rely on the likes of Anthony and Duran even more.
They've significantly upgraded their rotation behind Garret Crochet, as well. Ranger Suarez comes over from the Phillies and Sonny Gray comes over from St. Louis. That pushes Brayan Bello back to the No. 4 spot, which is a more appropriate place for him, and one where I think he'll be very successful. Aroldis Chapman's career was revived when he signed with Boston last season, but can that resurgence continue? This is a playoff team. But it's also a team with a lot of questions around it. Which is why I think the Red Sox are a third-place team.
Projected Lineup: Roman Anthony-DH, Jarren Duran-LF, Trevor Story-SS, Willson Contreras-1B, Wilyer Abreu-RF, Caleb Durbin-3B, Marcelo Mayer-2B, Carlos Narvaez-C, Ceddanne Rafaela-CF
Projected Rotation: Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford
Closer: Aroldis Chapman
Projected Record: 91-71
4. Tampa Bay Rays: Things were never going to go their way last season. Having to play the entire season on the road, with all of their "home" games frontloaded, the Rays running out of gas at the end easily could've been predicted. With the stadium situation (mostly) resolved, Tampa Bay can shift its focus back on the field and attempting to do what we've grown so accustomed to seeing. Pretty much every year, the Rays contend for the division title despite having a roster that isn't nearly as flashy (or high-priced) as some others. So, would it surprise anyone if they did it again?
That's not to say there aren't some legit stars on this team. Junior Caminero. Jonathan Aranda. Yandy Diaz. Gavin Lux arrives in a trade with the Reds. Will he finally get the chance to show what made him such a highly regarded prospect with the Dodgers? They also have Cedric Mullins to roam center field now, too. So, they shouldn't have a problem hitting. If they can get the pitching to back it up, we could see the Rays once again be in the conversation come late September. After all, they've done more with less before.
Projected Lineup: Chandler Simpson-LF, Yandy Diaz-DH, Junior Caminero-3B, Jonathan Aranda-1B, Jake Fraley-RF, Gavin Lux-2B, Taylor Walls-SS, Nick Fortes-C, Cedric Mullins-CF
Projected Rotation: Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez, Steven Matz, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan
Closer: Griffin Jax
Projected Record: 75-87
5. Baltimore Orioles: Baltimore made one of the biggest splashes of free agency by singing Pete Alonso. He doesn't just give the Orioles more star power, he's a veteran to mix in with all those young guys. Although, at this point, Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman aren't necessarily "young guys" anymore either. They still have plenty of them, though. And that includes their new manager, 43-year-old Craig Albernaz. He's got a tough task ahead of him. Because the Orioles aren't nearly as good as the top three teams in the division.
In addition to being youth-reliant in the lineup, Baltimore's pitching staff simply isn't as deep in the rest of the division. Trevor Rogers comes over from the Marlins and Chris Bassitt comes over from the Blue Jays. They also have a new closer in former Cardinal Ryan Helsley. If this bargain-basement rotation can get the job done, though, the Orioles may surprise. I think the fact that expectations are low could actually work in their favor. If they aren't good, they're not supposed to be. If they are, they can complicate life for the top three teams in the division.
Projected Lineup: Gunnar Henderson-SS, Adley Rutschman-C, Pete Alonso-1B, Tyer O'Neill-RF, Taylor Ward-LF, Samuel Basallo-DH, Colton Cowser-CF, Coby Mayo-3B, Blaze Alexander-2B
Projected Rotation: Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt, Zach Eflin
Closer: Ryan Helsley
Projected Record: 73-89
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