With the United States fresh off a pair of Olympic golds in hockey, another American team has a chance to add to the patriotic feeling in this 250th year. And this might be the best team the United States has ever put together for the World Baseball Classic. Better than the 2017 championship squad. Better than the 2023 team that made the final. And yet, despite this being the best American WBC team ever, there's no guarantee of anything. That's the beauty of this tournament. Major League stars on every team, so many with a legitimate chance to win.
So, why do I think this is the best American team ever? Pitching. It's that simple. Pitching has always been the weakness. It's understandable that teams and pitchers are cautious at this time of year. The tournament takes place during Spring Training and there are so many rules put in place to protect the pitchers. As a result, the U.S. has never had elite top-tier starting pitchers available and willing to participate. That's not the case this year. Both Cy Young winners will make a start, as will Giants ace Logan Webb, who'll pitch the opener. People are making a big deal about Tarik Skubal only making one start. But...the maximum number of starts he'd make is two anyway, and I'll take one Tarik Skubal start over zero Tarik Skubal starts!
You also still need to consider defending champion Japan as, at the very least, a co-favorite. Japan has the best player on the planet. Ohtani won't pitch in the WBC, but his mere presence is intimidating enough. And the Japanese pitching staff still includes a Dodger--who just happens to be coming off winning World Series MVP. So, yeah, the Japanese will be as formidable as ever.
Then there's the Dominican Republic. They have the strongest lineup in the tournament (the United States is really the only team that's remotely comparable). They also have the pitching to back it up. Sandy Alcantara. Cristopher Sanchez. Brayan Bello. Then, in the bullpen, Gregory Soto, Camilo Doval and Seranthony Dominguez, among others. A second WBC championship by the DR wouldn't be a shock at all.
There's one other team I think is a formidable contender for the title. Venezuela. This is the first time they're playing a WBC without Miguel Cabrera (who's on the coaching staff), but still boast an incredibly strong lineup. The only question is the pitching. They nearly beat the U.S. in the quarterfinals three years ago. You know the memory of that loss will drive them in 2026. And getting past the quarterfinals is definitely a realistic possibility.
Pool A: Pool A is perhaps the most evenly-matched of the four. Puerto Rico is playing at home and probably the most talented of the four teams (even if they've had stronger rosters at past WBCs). Cuba, meanwhile, reached the semifinals in 2023 and boasts the legend Alfredo Despaigne along with a good number of Cuban-born MLB players. Either one of them can win the pool.
This is a really great opportunity for Canada, too. Canada is not in the same pool as the U.S. for the first time, which could be their ticket for advancing to the second round for the first time. Panama finished fourth in its group in 2023 to avoid the qualifying round, while Colombia had to play in the qualifiers and rolled right through it. Colombia beat eventual semifinalist Mexico in the opening game of the 2023 tournament and has a much stronger roster than Panama. I expect them to win that game and get the automatic spot in the next WBC.
Pool B: It's odd that they put two of the 2023 semifinalists--the United States and Mexico--in the same group. I get wanting Mexico to play in Houston. But they also just as easily could've had Mexico hosting the first round and send either Venezuela or the DR to Houston. Either way, they should both easily advance. It's just a question of who'll win that game to take the pool.
Also curious was the decision to put Great Britain and Brazil, two of the weakest teams, in the same group. Which is good news for whoever wins that game and doesn't have to go to the qualifiers. Italy advanced to the quarterfinals in 2023 thanks to that wacky five-way tiebreaker. And, in 2017, they beat Mexico in the opening game, then only missed reaching the second round because they lost a winner-take-all tiebreaker game. If any of the other three teams is gonna challenge the U.S. or Mexico, it'll be Italy.
Pool C: Czechia was the darlings of the 2023 WBC, qualifying for the first time and beating China in the opening game. That got them a spot in the 2026 edition, where they've once again been drawn into the Asian pool. Unfortunately, I don't see how the Czechs avoid dropping into the qualifier this time. This pool is just too strong. It's arguably the strongest of the tournament.
Japan has been to the semifinals of every WBC, so let's assume they've got one of the two quarterfinal spots. Australia took the other one in 2023 after beating South Korea in the opening game. Chinese Taipei, meanwhile, went 2-2, but finished last in its pool on a tiebreaker, then nearly didn't make it out of the qualifiers. But they're the No. 2 team in the world and looking to get out of the first round for the first time since 2013. On paper, you've gotta give the nod to the Koreans, though.
Pool D: I already pegged the Dominican Republic and Venezuela as two of the tournament favorites, so it shouldn't be a surprise to hear that I expect them both to advance. This pool doesn't have a "home" team, but has the advantage of playing the entire tournament in Miami. The teams they'll face in the quarterfinals will both be traveling from Tokyo, meanwhile. That could make a huge difference, and it's one of the reasons I can see both the DR and Venezuela reaching the semifinals.
Of course, getting out of the pool isn't guaranteed. Not when a formidable team from the Netherlands, a two-time semifinalist, is lurking. While I don't expect it to happen, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Dutch advance over either of the Latin American teams. Israel had a much better WBC in its 2017 debut than it did in 2023, when they lost back-to-back games 10-0 and Puerto Rico threw a perfect game against them. Still, they should beat Nicaragua and avoid needing to play the qualifiers next time.
My quarterfinal matchups are Puerto Rico vs. Mexico, the United States vs. Cuba, Japan vs. Venezuela and Dominican Republic vs. South Korea. That's the importance of that Dominican Republic-Venezuela game. Winning Pool D and avoiding a quarterfinal against Japan. It's the last game of pool play in the entire tournament, and it might as well be a playoff game. Because the stakes will be HUGE. And you know the intensity will be there.
Whoever wins that goes to the semifinals. Whoever loses likely loses to Japan. Since I've got the DR winning that game, I've also got them reaching the semis. Along with the United States, Mexico and Japan. The semifinal matchups would be a rematch of 2023: Mexico vs. Japan and arguably the game of the tournament: the United States vs. the Dominican Republic.
That USA vs DR game could easily be a de facto championship. Although, I do have the United States winning to set up a rematch of the 2026 championship against Japan. Except this time, the U.S. will come out on top. After two hockey gold medals over archrival Canada, why not add a baseball championship over archrival Japan to the collection in 2026?
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