One Solution: Fewer Bowls

After Notre Dame wasn't selected for the College Football Playoff, they removed their name from consideration for the other bowl games.  It was somewhat controversial and seen by some as Notre Dame being sore losers, but they're not the only ones.  Iowa State and Kansas State both opted out of bowl games, as well, because their coaches had already accepted another job.  They both got fined by the Big XII because of it.  And several other teams that were being considered as replacements passed on the opportunity (for various reasons).

This isn't a new thing that started this year.  For the last few seasons, in fact, teams and/or players have been opting out of bowl games for a multitude of reasons.  That's one of the big reasons why they moved the start of the transfer window in football to January.  So that it was after the bowls and rosters weren't decimated by players entering the portal.  And there have been numerous individual players who decided that they didn't want to impact their NFL Draft prospects by risking injury in a meaningless bowl game.

These opt-outs have created some interesting situations as the bowls scramble to find replacements.  Last year, Marshall opted out of the Independence Bowl at the last minute, leaving Army in limbo before Louisiana Tech stepped in to fill the spot.  Last season's Alamo Bowl featured two Big 12 teams playing each other (BYU vs. Colorado), and this year's Birmingham Bowl will be a matchup between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State, two teams who aren't just in the same conference.  They're in the same division!

Appalachian State only got into a bowl because so many teams opted out.  The Mountaineers finished 5-7 and weren't otherwise bowl-eligible, but became bowl-eligible once they needed to fill spots and started going down the list of 5-7 teams.  If there aren't enough teams, the 5-7 teams are ranked in order by their NCAA APR.  Appalachian State is one of three 5-7 teams playing in a bowl game this season, along with Rice and Mississippi State.

Three 5-7 teams are playing in bowls because three teams that were otherwise bowl-eligible opted out.  Which means that there were exactly enough teams to fill all of the spots in the College Football Playoff and bowl games.  And that's only because Delaware and Missouri State, who typically wouldn't be eligible while transitioning from FCS to FBS, were invited to bowl games since they had enough wins and there wouldn't have been enough teams without them.

It's gotten to the point where if you reach the magic number of six wins, you're not just bowl eligible.  It means, unless you opt out, you're definitely going to a bowl game (or the playoff).  And, since opt-outs have become a regular occurrence, you don't even need to have six wins.  You can be 5-7 and still have a chance at playing in a bowl.  A "reward" for your "great" season.

The four first-round losers in the College Football Playoff are still considered "bowl" teams even though they don't technically play in a bowl.  Likewise, since the four quarterfinals and two semifinals are all bowl games, four teams will play in two bowls under the current 12-team CFP format.  That doesn't change the math, though.  There are 41 postseason games and 82 postseason berths available. 

In the last two years, they reached 82 exactly.  In 2023-24, they only had 79.  In 2022-23, the number was 80.  In 2021-22, there was one extra bowl, and they had the 84 necessary teams exactly.  The last time there were more bowl games than eligible teams was 2019-20, when there were 79 teams for 78 spots and Toledo was left out.  So, it's been six years since a bowl-eligible team didn't play in a bowl game because they weren't selected for one (as opposed to voluntarily declining a bid).

Proponents of bowl games and the bowl system will insist that the number of bowl games isn't a problem.  They see value in them and even embrace the quirkiness of some of the lesser bowls.  And I don't dispute that there's some value.  For programs that haven't had success or have a young team, a postseason game, any postseason game, can be a wonderful experience.  And those teams do see it as a reward. 

Meanwhile, on the other end of the spectrum, you have teams like Notre Dame deciding that playing in a bowl game that isn't part of the College Football Playoff simply isn't worth it.  Especially now that it's a 12-team playoff, if you aren't selected, a bowl game will be seen as nothing more than a consolation prize.  Playing in a non-CFP bowl game is the football equivalent of playing in the NIT, and how many basketball teams do we see opt out of the NIT each year?  I have a feeling Notre Dame has started a similar trend in football.

Let's be honest here.  This is something we already knew.  Most bowl games are essentially the football version of the NIT.  That's become even more obvious now that it's a 12-team playoff.  It'll become even worse when/if the playoff expands to 14 or 16 teams.  Which will make the lesser bowls even more irrelevant to top programs than they already are.

A lot of this, of course, is ESPN's doing.  ESPN doesn't just broadcast a majority of the bowl games, they own and operate many of them.  That's why there are so many.  A lot of which are extremely unnecessary.  ESPN knows this, too.  These bowl games still exist, primarily, to give them programming during the final week in December.  They don't make money, either for ESPN or their host city.  But they're something for ESPN to put on TV, which is apparently enough.

Here's my question, though: If there were, say, five fewer bowls, how many people would miss them?  Would anyone even notice?  And reducing the pool of bowl-eligible teams from 82 to 72 would serve multiple purposes.  It would improve the quality since you'd have fewer 6-6 teams playing in bowls.  You wouldn't have the matchups of two 6-6 teams from Group of 5 conferences playing in a bowl nobody cares about in a half empty stadium.  Most importantly, you'd have a pool of replacements ready to go without having to ask multiple 5-7 teams to fill spots.

If and when the College Football Playoff expands, it seems inevitable that some bowl games will be casualties.  There simply won't be the interest, either from fans or from teams.  Nor will there even be enough teams.  And that might not be such a bad thing.  Because there are too many bowls.  There has been for a while.  Having fewer bowl games would solve a lot of problems.  It would truly be one of those situations where less is more.