NFL Picks, Week 16

I know it was a combination of blind luck and coincidence more than anything else, but still, it worked out pretty well that the NFL had three games for first place in the NFC this week--and another where the fourth division can be clinched.  And, this one is obviously the result of planning, but having one of those be Packers-Bears on Saturday night certainly guarantees the NFL will win the ratings battle against the College Football Playoff.  I'm sure there will be some people watching Oregon-James Madison.  Just nowhere near as many.  Not when you have the NFL's longest rivalry with first place on the line!

Thursday Night: Seattle (Win)

Eagles (9-5) at Commanders (4-10): Philadelphia-Philadelphia plays two of its last three against Washington (with a trip to Buffalo in between), which is a good chance for them to get on a roll heading into the playoffs.  After these two met in last season's NFC Championship Game, there were expectations that holding off the two matchups until late in the year meant they could be battles for the division title, but that obviously won't happen.  Instead, the Eagles are on the verge of something that hasn't been done in the NFC East in more than 20 years--win back-to-back division titles.  The last team to do it?  The Eagles!  Winning four in a row from 2001-04.

Packers (9-4-1) at Bears (10-4): Green Bay-Losing Micah Parsons was a big blow for the Packers.  Obviously.  But I don't think it's totally catastrophic.  Yet.  Anyway, this is the biggest game at Soldier Field in years, as it'll almost certainly decide the NFC North.  Yes, there are two games left after this.  But a Bears win gives Chicago a game-and-a-half lead and all but relegates Green Bay to a wild card.  Here's another chance for the Bears to prove they're for real like they did on Black Friday.  Except I think the Packers will do what they did two weeks ago at Lambeau and eke out a win.

Bills (10-4) at Browns (3-11): Buffalo-Last week changed everything for Buffalo.  Instead of seeing the Patriots clinch the division, now the Bills find themselves only a game out with Cleveland and the Jets still on their schedule.  I'm not saying their string of division titles will definitely continue.  New England still has to be the favorite to win the division.  They've still got plenty left to play for, though.  And they can potentially wrap up their spot this week heading into next week's showdown with the Eagles.

Chargers (10-4) at Cowboys (6-7-1): Dallas-Every time the Cowboys want to think they still have a chance at getting back into the playoff race, they go and lose to a team like Minnesota.  By the time they face the Chargers, they could officially be eliminated.  But they're still a tough out, especially at home.  The Chargers haven't clinched their spot yet, but are in good shape to return to the playoffs.  They can clinch with a win and a Colts or Texans loss, while a loss essentially hands the AFC West to Denver.

Chiefs (6-8) at Titans (2-12): Kansas City-Well, this is a weird position to be in.  There's three games left and Kansas City has already been eliminated.  The Chiefs have to win out just to finish above .500.  And they have to do it without Patrick Mahomes, who already had surgery on his torn ACL.  Not the year they anticipated by any means, but missing the playoffs this season could end up being a good thing in the long run for a lot of those Chiefs players who've played a lot of football over the past seven years.  With all that said, I'm curious to see how they'll play during this stretch run and if this is it for Travis Kelce.

Bengals (4-10) at Dolphins (6-8): Miami-Cincinnati is favored on the road in this game.  Why?  What is this obsession with the Bengals?  They're 4-10!  They're seriously the most overrated team in football, and Joe Burrow's one of the most overrated quarterbacks!  And, let's not forget that Miami was on a four-game winning streak until it was snapped in Pittsburgh on Monday night.  There's no reason why the Dolphins shouldn't be the favorites in this one.

Jets (3-11) at Saints (4-10): New Orleans-It would be easy to just chalk this one up as another meaningless showdown between two bad teams that are out of it.  Which it still is.  The Saints have upended the NFC South though!  Three of their four wins are in the division, and they swept Carolina!  Tampa Bay and Carolina are tied for first place because of the Saints!  And, let's not forget, those wins over Tampa Bay and Carolina have come in the last two weeks.  Playing the Jets at home is a good recipe to make it three in a row.

Vikings (6-8) at Giants (2-12): Minnesota-These are two very different last-place teams.  The Giants are in line for a top-five pick, maybe even No. 1.  The Vikings are out there trying to remind everyone not to forget about them.  They're in last place only because the NFC North is so good.  Minnesota wants to see what it can get from J.J. McCarthy, so these last three games are still important for them.  Not to mention the fact that finishing 9-8 is still possible.

Buccaneers (7-7) at Panthers (7-7): Carolina-This one doesn't have the same importance as their Week 18 matchup will.  But, make no mistake, it's incredibly important nonetheless.  The winner here won't only have the one-game lead, they'll have the tiebreaker edge going into that decisive matchup (which we can probably safely assume will be put in one of the national windows).  Tampa's owned the division for several years, so you know they won't let the Panthers just take it.  But, with the game in Charlotte, I'm inclined to go with the home team.

Jaguars (10-4) at Broncos (12-2): Denver-Who would've figured that Jaguars-Broncos in Week 16 would end up being a marquee matchup between two first-place teams?  Yet, that's exactly what we've got in the Mile High City.  Jacksonville has already proven it can go on the road and beat good teams.  They beat the 49ers.  They beat the Chiefs.  Winning in Denver in December is a different task, though.  The Broncos keep their winning streak going and move one game closer to making sure everybody has to go there in January.

Falcons (5-9) at Cardinals (3-11): Atlanta-There isn't really much to say here.  The Falcons are one of the most disappointing franchises compared to expectations.  Especially when you consider how good they've looked in some of their wins over playoff teams.  Yet, here they sit at 5-9, completely out of it.  They're still in better shape than Arizona, though.  It's another lost season for the Cardinals, who can't blame it all on the misfortune of being in the NFC West with three playoff-bound division rivals.  Jacoby Brissett has put together a nice career as a quality NFL backup.  He isn't an NFL starter, however.

Steelers (8-6) at Lions (8-6): Detroit-Detroit might be the best 8-6 team that's likely to miss the playoffs around!  Part of the Lions' undoing this season has been just their absolutely brutal schedule, a consequence of finishing first last season.  Every week, they've got a tough opponent it seems.  And every week, it seems like a must-win.  Last week, they lost to the Rams.  This week, they get the Steelers at home.  I think Detroit wins and stays alive, which is all they can do at this point.  A Lions loss will all but eliminate them (it would clinch a playoff berth for both the 49ers and the Bears-Packers winner).

Raiders (2-12) at Texans (9-5): Houston-Houston is that one team every AFC playoff contender is looking at and hoping doesn't get in.  None of those teams want anything to do with the Texans in the postseason.  Unfortunately for them, the Texans are indeed coming.  If they beat the Raiders and Jacksonville loses in Denver, suddenly there's a tie atop the AFC South!  Which will likely be the exact situation we're looking at heading into the final two weeks of the season.

Patriots (11-3) at Ravens (7-7): New England-They flexed it into Sunday night, and with good reason.  Baltimore's playoff hopes are hanging by a thread.  They know they likely have to win out, but that won't be easy with their remaining schedule consisting of New England, Green Bay and Pittsburgh.  The Patriots, meanwhile, missed their chance to clinch the AFC East last week, so suddenly there's a little more urgency on their side, too.  A loss, and suddenly a home playoff game isn't anywhere close to a guarantee anymore.

49ers (10-4) at Colts (8-6): San Francisco-When was the last time a Monday night interconference game carried this much playoff heft for so many teams (not just the two participating)?  There are four AFC teams who have playoff clinching scenarios based on a Colts loss, and I already mentioned what a 49ers win does to the Lions.  So, a San Francisco victory here literally helps the playoff chances of half-a-dozen teams.  Not to mention their own.  They secure their wild card and keep the NFC West in play with two home games remaining.

This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 144-80-1