Six Weeks to Go

We've reached mid-August.  Which means back-to-school and preseason football.  It also means we've reached the three-quarter mark of the MLB season.  Every team has roughly 40 games left, and the teams currently in playoff position do look like the 12 best teams in baseball.  While the playoff races are by no means over, I think we're looking at battles for division titles and positioning more than teams currently on the outside challenging for wild cards.

And, once we get to the postseason, anything can happen.  I really don't think there will be a clear favorite heading into October.  Because, while some of the playoff teams are in better shape than others, they're all flawed.  They're all just as capable of making a run as they are of crashing out in their opening series.

Blue Jays: Toronto is the biggest example of what I'm talking about.  The Blue Jays aren't nearly as good as they think they are.  They're practically unbeatable at home, which will be their clearest advantage in the playoffs.  They're also impossible to strike out, so, since they put the ball in play, you have to play rock solid defense against them.  Being sound fundamentally, tough to beat at home, and having solid pitching makes the Blue Jays a very tough out.  Tough, but not impossible.

Red Sox: Boston is also really good at home, but sub-.500 on the road.  So, it's incredibly important for them to catch the Blue Jays and/or hold off the Yankees and Mariners if they want to play at Fenway.  I'm also not sure about Boston's pitching behind Garret Crochet.  They'll get in, but they won't be a favorite.

Yankees: As annoying as Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone's constant votes of confidence about a team that's been awful for two months are, the Yankees have never really been in danger of dropping out of the playoffs.  And, if they can play like they did in April and May, look out!  If not, they've got early exit written all over them.  If they hit like they can, get good starting pitching and the bullpen actually does its job, though, look out!  That's what makes this team so frustrating to watch.  Everyone knows what they're capable of, but they're so inconsistent.

Tigers: Detroit has been the best team in the American League all season and has the best rotation in the AL.  The Tigers have dropped off after their torrid start, but they've built such a lead and the rest of the AL Central is so weak that they have nothing to worry about.  And that pitching can take them far.  Detroit will be a very dangerous team in October.

Astros: Despite losing so many players for extended periods due to injuries, it's been business as usual in Houston.  Losing Josh Hader for the year was a big blow, though.  Especially since that likely takes Bryan Abreu out of that setup role where he's been so valuable.  It's really questionable whether they'll hold off the Mariners.  Still, this is the Astros we're talking about.  They're in the ALCS every freakin' year for a reason.  Although, seeing them have to navigate the playoffs while not holding one of the top two seeds could be interesting.

Mariners: This is my pick to win the AL pennant.  Which is something the Mariners have never done.  Can the only team that's never been to the World Series finally get there?  They have the pitching, and now they have the lineup to go with it.  Seattle is that team nobody will want to face in the playoffs.  I think they need to win the AL West, though.  Otherwise, the travel will be a killer.

Phillies: Last season, I was very high on the Phillies heading into the postseason and they ended up losing the Division Series to the Mets.  Their big issue last year was the bullpen.  This year, they went out and got the Twins' Jhoan Duran to be their closer.  If they hadn't done that, the same fate would be awaiting them.  However, with the upgraded bullpen, an excellent rotation and a solid lineup, Philadelphia will be among the favorites.

Mets: All the Mets need to do is get in.  Like New York's other team, they were otherworldly in April and May before falling off a cliff in the summer.  Everyone knows the Mets are plenty capable of turning it around, especially with that lineup.  The question is whether they'll get the pitching.  If they do, their seed doesn't matter.  As they proved last year.

Brewers: I have no idea how Milwaukee is this good.  Nor do I have any idea how long this ridiculous run will last.  I'm also worried the Brewers have another first round exit in their future.  This is a team that's about to make its seventh postseason appearance in eight seasons, yet hasn't won a playoff series since sweeping the Rockies in the 2018 NLDS.  And whoever they face in the Division Series this season will be good and plenty capable of beating them.

Cubs: For a while, Cubs fans thought that this year would be just like 2016.  Then reality set in, the Brewers stopped losing entirely, and the Cubs dropped to a wild card position.  As a wild card, they're likely looking at playing either the Phillies, Mets or Padres.  I don't see them beating any of those three teams.  Which is why, while I see them making the playoffs, I can't see the Cubs making a deep run once they get there.

Dodgers: San Diego making them fight for the NL West title could be the best thing for the Dodgers.  The defending champs won't coast into the postseason.  Because they can't.  Talent-wise, they're obviously the best team.  What will their pitching look like, though?  That seems to always be the question.  And, don't forget, last year notwithstanding, this team does have a history of getting knocked out of the playoffs early.  That short series can be dangerous.

Padres: Don't be surprised to see a Seattle-San Diego World Series.  Because I think the Padres might be the best team in the National League right now.  (Yes, I'm aware the Brewers have had two winning streaks of at least 11 games since the All*Star Break.)  I like everything San Diego did at the deadline.  And all those moves were made with the postseason in mind.  Still, there isn't much that separates the six National League playoff teams.  So, the Padres winning the pennant and losing in the Wild Card Series seem equally plausible.