Sometimes, I think Rob Manfred breaks news just to give fans a heads up that change is coming to MLB. Other times, I think it's just to troll people. His comments during the Little League Classic on Sunday night fall into the latter category. It achieved its purpose. It got people all fired up, mostly against the idea, and there's been two days of mock divisions drawn up. But, to me, it was all just to get the reaction. Because there's no way the owners would go for an East/West alignment instead of the American and National Leagues.
Now, will there be expansion sometime within the next 10 years? Most likely. Baseball hasn't expanded since 1998 and it's no secret that they'd like to add two teams. And that expansion, whenever it happens, will obviously have to result in realignment, probably into eight divisions of four. Don't expect much beyond that, though. Because the drastic realignment Manfred suggested, despite some "experts" suggesting it's further along than many might think, will be a very hard sell.
This isn't the NBA or NHL we're talking about. Those two leagues have always been divided almost entirely along geographic lines. It's more like the NFL, which has been the AFC and NFC since the merger in 1970. That merger, of course, was the combining of two completely separate entities--the AFL and NFL. Just like how the American League and National League are, for the most part, two completely separate entities.
And settling on the divisional alignment after the AFL/NFL merger wasn't exactly an easy task. The Steelers, Browns and Colts all agreed to move the AFC, but that was about the extent of it. Things got so complicated with how they'd configure the NFC that it ultimately came down to Pete Rozelle's secretary picking one of the options out of a hat. That's how we ended up with the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East, which makes absolutely no sense geographically, but you also can't picture that division without the Cowboys. (That was also the only one that kept the four current NFC North teams together, and it's impossible to picture those four ever being separated.)
The National League was founded in 1876. That's 150 years of history. The American League was founded in 1901 and has 125 years of history of its own. Going to an "Eastern Conference" and "Western Conference" wouldn't just erase a lot of that history (and for what reason?), it would eliminate rivalries that are built on that history (again, why?) and, frankly, confuse people more than anything else.
It's because of that history that the All*Star Game and World Series actually mean something. The AL and NL didn't even play by the same rules until 2022! The lines have been a little blurred because of the universal DH and the new schedule format in which you face every other team in the Majors every year, but that distinction is still important. Winning the "Eastern Conference" pennant doesn't have the same cachet as winning the National League pennant. Likewise, the AL and NL always wanted to beat each other in the All*Star Game. It's why baseball's All*Star Game, ridiculous "swing-off" tiebreakers aside, is actually still relevant while the other three got so stupid they could do away with them entirely and I doubt anyone would even notice.
To eliminate the leagues and base divisions entirely on geographic is easier than it sounds, and you can bet there would be plenty of pushback from all sides. Do you really think the Cubs and Cardinals, who've been grouped together for 125 years, would really go for being separated? Same thing with the Orioles, who've been in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox since the AL East was formed in 1969. You try telling them that they won't be in the same division anymore!
Matchups like Yankees-Mets, Dodgers-Angels and Cubs-White Sox would lose something, too. Part of what makes those series between intracity or intrastate rivals so special is because they're in two different leagues and don't face each other that often. Those matchups would lose something if they weren't just in the same league, but the same division. Beyond that, it would be impossible for them to meet in the World Series. Which is just stupid on so many levels.
I'm not even sure how they think these divisions would work, either. Manfred mentioned something about travel and having two West Coast teams play postseason games in that late time slot, but there are only eight teams in the Mountain or Pacific time zone. Houston and Texas are in the AL West, but they're in the Central time zone. So, even if you put one of the expansion teams out west, there would still be seven teams in the Central time zone in the Western Conference, and you'd still have an Eastern/Central time zone team playing the Western Conference pennant winner in the World Series. (This is the same sport where the Atlanta Braves were in the NL West for 25 years suddenly caring about travel.)
When the NHL realigned in 2013, they put all 16 Eastern time zone teams in the same conference and everybody else in the Western Conference. Baseball couldn't even do that, though, unless both expansion teams were in the East (which seems unlikely), since there are only 14 teams in the Eastern time zone. So, you'd be putting most, if not all, of the teams in the Central time zone in the Western Conference, which would entirely defeat the purpose!
Meanwhile, who's asking for this? Who's been watching baseball thinking, "You know what MLB needs? Geographic divisions!" Especially when the existing divisions ARE geographic! The entire point of having the Astros switch leagues a decade ago was because they were the furthest west and they needed somebody to move to balance the leagues at 15 teams apiece! And, like I said, getting teams to agree to realignment within their existing leagues will be enough of a challenge when the time comes.
That travel thing is nothing more than a ridiculous (and convenient) excuse, too. Unless they want to change the schedule back to where you're only playing the teams in your league, everybody will still have to make multiple cross-country trips per season. The West coast teams will have more travel regardless simply because there aren't as many of them and they're further apart. Giving them more games in the Pacific time zone and fewer in the Eastern time zone won't change that. Seattle's still a lot further away than everyone.
His point about the postseason really made no sense! Manfred used Boston-Anaheim as an example of an East Coast vs. West Coast series that would potentially have a 10:00 start time where Red Sox fans have to stay up (I feel compelled to mention here that when the Red Sox played the Angels in the 2009 ALDS, Game 3 at Fenway started at noon Eastern, 9 AM Pacific, but I digress). Yes, but you'd at least have the Red Sox fans staying up, likely giving the game higher ratings as a result.
Also, they hardly ever even schedule 10:00 Eastern playoff games! The Dodgers have played another NL West team in the Division Series five years in a row (when 7:00 Pacific start times would conceivably not be a problem). You want to know how many of those games have started at 10:00 Eastern? One! In 2022 against the Padres. Most of the Dodgers' NLDS games have started at either 5:00 or 6:00 Pacific. And all LCS games are scheduled for either 4:00 or 8:00 Eastern, so it's only the Wild Card or Division Series we'd even be talking about here!
They've moved away from 10:00 postseason starts regardless of who's playing in them, partially because of the lower ratings. Which is something they've been able to do because FOX and TBS split the postseason. What Manfred saying that says to me is that he wants to add 10:00 games. Not take them away. Which would only be convenient for people on the West Coast. Having games start (and, thus, end) later wouldn't get more people to watch them. It would do the exact opposite, in fact. (The lowest-rated NLCS in history was Diamondbacks-Rockies in 2007, when no game started earlier than 9:00 Eastern.)
Expansion is inevitable. Everyone acknowledges that. That expansion will result in realignment. Everyone understands that, too. But that realignment shouldn't be as drastic as the Commissioner is suggesting and some seem to think is a done deal. Because logistically, it doesn't really make sense. Beyond that, though, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. And MLB's system of an American and National League, each with an East, Central and West division isn't broken. So, why "fix" it? Especially when that's only gonna make things worse!
No comments:
Post a Comment