From the Big Three to the Big Two

When Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic combined to win 16 years' worth of Grand Slam tournaments between them, we thought we'd never see anything like it again.  As it turns out, it might not have been the once-in-a-lifetime display of three-way dominance we thought.  It might've only been once-in-a-generation.  Because men's tennis has officially moved from the Big Three Era into the Big Two Era of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

Djokovic won his record-setting 24th Grand Slam title at the 2023 US Open.  Six Grand Slam tournaments have been played since then.  Sinner has won three.  Alcaraz has won the other three.  The only break in their stranglehold at the top of the men's game came at last year's Olympics, when Djokovic won the gold medal.  Otherwise, it's been the exclusive domain of Sinner and Alcaraz.

We knew that the Big Three Era was going to end eventually.  Federer retired first after his body told him "No Mas."  Nadal finished off his career at the Paris Olympics, where he played doubles with Alcaraz (a literal passing of the torch).  Djokovic is the only one left.  And he's gone from the young guy challenging Federer and Nadal to the veteran being challenged (and surpassed).

The changing of the guard started at the 2024 Australian Open.  Djokovic entered his semifinal against Sinner on a 33-match Australian Open winning streak and hadn't lost at the tournament since 2018.  Sinner completely dominated the semifinal, then came back from two sets down in the final to claim his first Grand Slam title.  He won his second at the US Open, then defended his Australian Open title.  That's the last three hardcourt Majors, all won by Jannik Sinner.

Alcaraz, meanwhile, was touted as the next big star in men's tennis pretty much immediately after his 2021 breakthrough at the ripe old age of 18.  He won the US Open a year later, then Wimbledon in 2023 (beating Djokovic in the final).  Clay has always been recognized as his best surface, so a French Open victory seemed inevitable.  It came last year, and he followed it up by defending his Wimbledon title.  Then Alcaraz defended his French Open title in Sunday's epic final, giving him five career Grand Slam titles, including the last three played in Europe.

What makes Alcaraz's record even more impressive is that he's 5-0 all-time in Grand Slam finals.  Both of his Wimbledon victories came against Djokovic.  And he's 8-4 all-time against Sinner, including that absolutely incredible five-and-a-half-hour instant classic in the French Open final.  That will be the defining match of a rivalry that figures to shape the next generation of men's tennis.

It wasn't the first classic they've played at a Grand Slam, either.  They played a night match in the 2022 US Open quarterfinals that ended at 2:50 in the morning, with Alcaraz rallying from 2-1 down to win five.  At last year's French Open, they met in the semifinals and Alcaraz won a four-hour five-setter en route to the title.  Three of his five Grand Slam titles have included a five-set victory over Sinner.  When those two meet on the big stage, they always deliver.

Federer and Nadal had an era-defining rivalry even before Djokovic joined the fray.  Then he made it a three-way rivalry.  The three of them dominated men's tennis for the better part of two decades.  Don't be surprised if Sinner vs. Alcaraz is the defining rivalry for the next 15 years.  After all, Sinner is all of 23 and Alcaraz is 22.  They both figure to have plenty more Grand Slam titles in their future.

They've both been No. 1.  Sinner is the current top player.  He became No. 1 after last year's French Open and has held the ranking ever since.  Alcaraz, meanwhile, rose to No. 1 after his 2022 US Open victory and was the youngest year-end No. 1 in ATP history.  They've separated themselves in the rankings by nearly 2,500 points over No. 3 Alexander Zverev (who's still waiting for his Grand Slam breakthrough).

Will Alcaraz and Sinner have the same run of dominance that the Big Three had?  And for as long?  We obviously don't know what the future holds, but there's no reason to believe it won't.  Can they each get to 20 like their three predecessors?  Is it crazy to think that's possible?  We just saw three guys dominate men's tennis for so long, only to have two successors immediately pick up the mantle.

Others were able to break through during the Big Three Era.  Andy Murray won three Grand Slams and two Olympic gold medals.  Stan Wawrinka won a Grand Slam title every year from 2014-16.  (If you include the six for those two, that's 72 combined Grand Slam titles--18 years' worth--between five guys, who were all contemporaries.)  So, while Sinner and Alcaraz might have a Grand Slam stranglehold right now, it would be unrealistic to think it'll continue indefinitely.  If it didn't happen then, why would it happen now?

So, there is hope for Zverev to finally lift a Grand Slam trophy for the first time.  And does anyone really think Novak Djokovic doesn't have another Grand Slam title in him, even if he has become the "old guy" now?  There's always the possibility that Sinner or Alcaraz will be an early-round upset victim, too.  (At last year's US Open, Alcaraz lost to Botic van de Zandschulp in the second round.)

Still, it's probably a safe bet that this is just the beginning of a long run where Sinner and Alcaraz are THE guys in men's tennis.  It's a compelling rivalry that's great for the sport.  TNT's ratings for the French Open final were significantly better than NBC's for the final last year.  Two charismatic players who are both the best in the world on a particular surface (Alcaraz on clay, Sinner on hardcourts).  And, as Federer, Nadal and Djokovic can tell you, two stars who'll only get better because they're pushing each other.

There was some concern that there would be a void in men's tennis with Federer and Nadal's retirements.  It turns out, those fears were unfounded.  Because Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz immediately stepped in to fill that void.  And theirs will be the next great rivalry that defines the sport for a generation.